Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 19/12/2019 08:59

At some point in time this approach/BoD is going to time-out and we will IMO have a break-through. The (1) BoD are getting steadily older and (2) the (reported) cash-pile is getting higher, although (3) getting to the gold is becoming progressively more challenging. And then we have the PoG....

It is still my expectation that (1) & (2) will prevail and that we will experience a more progressive approach and a re-rating - but when? is anyone’s guess - this year’s AGM was a damp squib. Remains my largest holding (just) - numbers 2 & 3 are Goldies too. I wonder what the score will be at the end of 2020?

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 19/12/2019 06:55

I stay in also RT, only got 15000 shares, but as you say why are those big boys still in .

[roguetreader] 18/12/2019 13:19

Rh2, I agree, surely the earthquake risk is no greater now than ever before? and likewise I'm sticking with it in the short / medium term on my relatively small position, whilst Ruffer and Arbiter each remain sitting on 14% plus of the shareholding and the shares remain this cheap.

[rhuvaal2] 18/12/2019 11:57

I seem to recall Miningnut stating "he wouldn't be selling any under 2 dollars", also I don't believe the earthquake risk... still puzzles me why Ruffer added to their large holding in the summer. The story isn't finished yet, etc

[tightfist] 18/12/2019 08:21

Thanks Steve. Even the most loyal are shuffling towards the door - I have Sold 20% of my holding this week, first time I have sold MML for some years - purely resulting from BoD behaviours. Cash has gone into Goldie ALTN, well worth a look if you want an ultra high Risk/Reward proposition - the BoD own 69% so a very different proposition.

[deka1] 18/12/2019 07:03

cheers steve

[stevea171] 17/12/2019 18:41

On the ASX large shareholder Miningnut says he has reduced over the past 4 months and is now out. He cites earthquake risk on Mindanao/Co-o along with all the management issues we know about.

That would not have helped any sustained recovery in the share price with him constantly selling in small parcels.

[deka1] 03/12/2019 16:35

Thanks for your take on it guys

[tightfist] 03/12/2019 13:13

Totally agree!
But the BoD are not getting any younger, one of them (RD) got close to being ousted and meaningful tranches of shares are changing hands - a fox in the cosy hen coup!?
Bring it on, tightfist

[speedsgh] 03/12/2019 12:44

I think it has been abundantly obvious for several years that the interests of Mr Teo & the board are not aligned with those of the company's shareholders. In fact I would suggest that they are most likely the polar opposite!

[tightfist] 03/12/2019 12:08

STAYING ABOARD THE GRAVY TRAIN (with minimal personal risk/accountability/effort/discomfort): That in my mind has been the only rationale to explain the BoD behaviour. Anyone or anything progressive or adventurous has been knocked on the head for years - this BB repeatedly talks things up and is serially disappointed. IIRC ATeo told me personally that his last shares were bought around A$2.15, and IIRC we are not close to triggering any options. What are the Change of Control provisions within the new Remuneration Policy - a review of that may be quite insightful........
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UNLESS THERE IS NOW A DIFFERENT and MACHIAVELLIAN MOTIVE: Having successfully neglected and suppressed the sp, enable a T/O and somehow get a piece of the action. Maybe via the Remuneration Policy, maybe somehow else. Time for reading anyone?.
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If they didn't want a suppressed share price why on earth has there not been an AGM move towards a Buy-Back, Dividend or Tender Offer? A small move in this direction (A$5m? cash cost) could IMO double the share price in short order..
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Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 03/12/2019 11:19

I will say, for a while now I could only come up with an T/O to explain the behaviour of the board , why else , even a BUY back of a lot of shares , to force a management buy out,is that possible please any one, I am not experienced in corporate LAW, any info much appreciated .

[deka1] 03/12/2019 11:11

TF hi , found this on the shares in issue.

3 Dec '19 - 09:14 - 237763 of 237767 Edit
0 0 0
extremely low daily volume, it may be difficult to get free of in a short time period. ... share with figure of 207794000 and noted 165132053 floating shares.

ABOVE from a stock report we will have to take off the major holdings to see whats roughly left in the market space

[tightfist] 03/12/2019 10:53

Hi deka,

41% are Retail according to the recent AGM presentation. UK at 19% is still the largest region for Institutions, amazing after the indifference shown in recent years. Maybe a A$1 offer will put us all out of our misery - someone would still be getting a bargain. Thought: Maybe there will be an optional partial share offer to install some inspiring management who have decent ideas on what to do constructively with investing the cash flow).

Cheers, tightfist

[ilostthelot] 03/12/2019 08:53

Decent bounce last night.

[deka1] 03/12/2019 08:39

how many of mml shares are in free float anyone

[deka1] 03/12/2019 08:33

hxxps://longforecast.com/gold-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-ounce-gram

GOLD PRICE FORECAST FOR 2020 end of 2020 over 1700/0z

[stevea171] 03/12/2019 08:08

A takeover would put us all out of our misery and probably send Teo and co into forced retirement ....

From a HC poster:

Could MML be a takeover target? My bet is on Silver Lake Resources making a bid. They're a specialist in narrow vein mining with their Mount Monger and Deflector narrow vein mines. This asset could be an ok fit for their portfolio and they might be able to make Co O more productive. They only have to persuade a few major passive shareholders to get a significant shareholding in the company. They will probably accept $1 which is a $200 million market cap for MML. But then they'll be able to access their $45 million cash pile which brings MMLs Enterprise value to only $155 million.

Silver Lake also has a $155 million cash pile and no debt.

[stevea171] 03/12/2019 08:03

Share register movements at gold miner Medusa
Sarah Thompson, Anthony Macdonald and Tim Boyd
Dec 2, 2019 — 11.25am

Gold deals are flowing on what feels like a weekly basis, and in that context some recent moves on the share register of Medusa Mining are worth watching.

Trading volumes in the Philippines focused gold miner spiked last week, with November 26 being the biggest single day of trading in the stock in almost three years.

Street Talk understands a trade which saw about 1.6 per cent of the company change hands was facilitated by UBS, and it ensured volumes were about 33 times higher than this year's daily average.

The parcel was not bought by any of Medusa's existing substantial shareholders, and the trade was big enough to ensure whoever bought last week is now one of the top five shareholders in the company.

Heroic valuations on Australian based gold miners have prompted acquirers like St Barbara, Evolution, Northern Star, Newcrest and Resolute to plump for gold assets abroad over the past 18 months, most commonly in North America.

Medusa's valuations have been anything but heroic of late, perhaps because it operates on the island of Mindanao which remains under martial law.

The company has been chronically undervalued compared to ASX listed peers like Pantoro and Red5.

Pantoro produces roughly half as much gold each year as Medusa, but has a slightly larger market capitalisation.

Red5 produces slightly more gold than Medusa each year, but its market capitalisation is more than double Medusa's.

Last week's big trading volumes also came after Medusa shares had lost about 25 per cent of their value in the previous two months.

[tightfist] 02/12/2019 10:51

Hi SFS, shame to see you leave - looks like lots of folk are finally capitulating after tolerating years of BoD opaqueness and terrible share price performance. Accentuated by PoG dithers.

Normally I would fear that there are operational issues arising and the that Q2/H1 report will be weak but to my mind there are other clouds coming into view.

Cheers, tightfist

[swallowsflysouth] 26/11/2019 23:25

Finally had enough sold last shares here, no belief they going to improve. Good luck all. No i was'nt the big seller, thankfully.

[tightfist] 26/11/2019 12:25

Great info from MiningNut: Rather surprising that 1.5% of a thinly traded stock was sold/dumped on the market, managing these situations is what brokers are supposed to do? Unless there were no friendly ii buyers?
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I saw Galeforce’s note this morning, requires a fuller response on how I perceive this BoD behaving.
Cheers, tightfist

[stevea171] 26/11/2019 11:13

Miningnut (HC) reports on the exceptional volume of 3.33 million traded today:

"For the info of overseas shareholders, there was a special sale of 2.98mil shares @ A60c before trade commenced this morning. Price recovered most of its losses during the day on normal turnover of 400k.

Hard to guess who would have sold but Amalgamated Dairies Ltd(NZ) had a similar holding but they have been a long term shareholder."

So who has sold and who has bought at 60c and why and why now? There may be holdings RNS's to follow in a few days.

A long term shareholder - Amalgamated Dairies - giving up?

I would expect if it's one of the top 3 selling they would do so in the normal way of small parcels over days, weeks, months. They had their chance to remove the BoD's but didn't take it so now they have no choice but to sit it out ....

[deka1] 26/11/2019 06:46

3.33 million shares traded last night , gold now down 100 dollars /oz since sept

[galeforce1] 19/11/2019 21:35

Presumably that indicates that the decision-makers at Ruffer have some confidence in the current BoD and think that MML's current valuation is still too low.

Personally I have no strong views one way or another about the BoD.

I know lot of well-informed posters on here think the current directors are doing a very poor job. They would like to see a dividend and a less muddled future strategy. So would I.

But I do find it reassuring that Ruffer continued to add to their position this summer.