Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[stevea171] 17/1/2016 19:28

Deka. St Barbara (SBM) was dual listed on ASX and LSE but delisted from the UK (like MML) in 2005.

SBM has had a very chequered career with its share price and usually has had a lot of borrowings that could sink it. Amongst other things, it owned the gold leases around Meekatharra and the mill that Mercator Gold acquired and we all know what happened after that .... !!

I have taken no interest in SBM for many years after making a mental note to avoid it like the plague ....

[deka1] 17/1/2016 18:32

Tf hi , found this on StBarbara re major holders
Major Shareholders,
Holding*


Hunter Hall Investments Ltd 15.0%
M&G Investment Management Ltd 11.5%


Franklin Resources Inc 6.6%



* As most recently disclosed by shareholder

Company Profile


Market Cap
839,198,780
Sector
Materials (15)

Issued Shares
495,102,525
Industry Group
Materials (1510)

First Listed
15 May 1969
Security Type
Ordinary (1)

First Traded
15 May 1969



Principal Activity

Production of gold and exploration for gold

[tightfist] 17/1/2016 15:08

Hi deka,

Thanks for your post 35487; it was looking at the SBM St Barbara chart made me think about gold sentiment. SBM has 18-bagged in the last 14 months having started from a market cap. quite similar to MML today (the eps earnings forecast is not dis-similar either). I haven't looked at the nature of the business and shareholder base (alternative listings) but it suggests there is sufficient interest on ASX to lift a good? stock very substantially.

(I am away traveling in Asia for the next two weeks, so won't be in contact very much)

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 17/1/2016 08:31

That's a good watch Chip,what I took from it is that Gold, being universal , IS the worlds reserve currency , regardless of what fiat is nominated, in the final analysis ,its always GOLD.
cheers

[roguetreader] 16/1/2016 20:12

Good watch Chip, cheers
RT

[mickygerbil] 16/1/2016 17:55

Silence would suggest significant changes?
Ego's running wild?

[chipperfrd] 16/1/2016 15:17

A 40 min discussion that you may find of interest over the weekend!

[nielsc] 15/1/2016 19:48

Deka1,Patience. It will in time.Cheers,Niels

[deka1] 15/1/2016 18:41

Dow down 480 and gold hardly moved, unbelievable ,

[deka1] 15/1/2016 14:12

DOW futs show down 376, gold bouncing around as usual,

[deka1] 14/1/2016 15:40

TF HI, in the halcyon days of 2009-2011 the vast majority of the mml stock was held by the ETFs/banks/large instis , many tens of millions , iirc over 60% of issued cap,to get that type of buy and hold numbers again ,do we not need to see gold investment sentiment swing back to positive ?,
cheers Dek

[tightfist] 14/1/2016 13:55

Hi Chip,

Thanks for your very thoughtful posting, #35477. I completely agree with all your points about the improving fundamentals of the MML business, and in particular the prospective cash-flow which is extraordinary.

Like others here, I have backed MML with recent share purchases – but clearly “the market” is not yet willing to put any value on those prospective improving fundamentals. In due course I believe that will change, even at todays PoG and without gold investing sentiment improving, but I also fervently believe that to move towards a respectable earnings/cash multiple (and sp) the management/Board situation has to be resolved and medium-term stability and credibility restored; that could take years to achieve.

Currently it’s a waiting game and we don’t yet know what we are going to be presented with, in terms of CEO, COO and BoD revisions. What I do know is that the circumstantial evidence of the past 26 months IMHO isn’t impressive – posts #35421 - #35424 list a lot of the perceived shortcomings. I am not a fan of the science of hindsight – but some of what we shareholders have been subjected to seems really unnecessary. As a small example, is it really too much to ask that we are advised that the Xmas works programme has been successfully completed (unless it hasn’t). As a bigger example, how does a Beancounter oversee the failure to prepare the market for a massive asset write-down; isn’t that part of their core competence?

Like you I am an MML enthusiast but I am feeling very uneasy right now. It always helps to meet people and I believed in RG taking us to a good place as CEO – the communications, operational plans and developments over the past 16 months are great; he was confident too. Unlike Goldminer I havn’t had the benefit of meeting AT so there is a very little positive for me to buy into.


All the best. Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 13/1/2016 20:27

Cheers Neils, the DOW getting possed again down over 300,S&P broke below support of 1965,selling is across the spectrum of stocks , not the miners alone lol.

[nielsc] 13/1/2016 20:25

(Mobile app issues) ... sold down today and gold has popped up a little.Cheers,Niels

[nielsc] 13/1/2016 20:23

I see the Dow and Nasdaq have been sold down todayout points and I

[nielsc] 13/1/2016 20:15

Deka1,I think you are absolutely right. The gold price needs to go up for their to be a change in sentiment on the gold miners. Not by crazy amounts, but back towards $1200-$1300 would do for starters.Money exiting shaky overvalued stock markets could well help gold move up along with short positions being unwound. We will wait and see what unfolds in 2016.Cheers,Niels

[arja] 13/1/2016 18:06

yes, sadly now slipping to 35 and each rally is a false dawn for MML and most ausie gold stocks .

[goldminer70] 13/1/2016 16:42

Chip
I think that is the best post I have ever read. I agree entirely with what you say. I have voted it up.
I can see it being a treble bagger this year.
I do not think that POG will go up too much and over the next year or 2 be at about the present level. It is only in the last 5 years it has been above its current level. The POG shot up between 2010 and 2012. Its hard to believe but in 2000 it was below 300$ an ounce.
Goldminer70

[chipperfrd] 13/1/2016 15:08

Hi GM, I hope all is well with you.

It may sound defeatist, but I tend to focus on what I can do rather than those things which I cannot control. Replacing a board member or influencing a move to re-list in London are, in my view, the latter, whilst buying shares are clearly the former.

The fundamentals look really good in my opinion and the share price looks heavily under-valued. If I am right the share price will eventually improve, if I am wrong then I only have myself to blame.

I am biased because MML provided my family with rich returns over the 2008-2011 time-frame and played a large part in the addition of two properties plus other miscellaneous outlays. The stock now looks to be at a similar position to the lows of 2008 yet it is clearly far better placed in terms of production over the longer term and yet there are still further project areas to develop once the gold price improves.

But given my bias towards the stock I am still focussed on the fundamentals and would not be increasing my holding if I honestly believed potential returns on that capital were likely to be better rewarded elsewhere.

I do hold many other gold/silver stocks but remain convinced that at the current stock price the potential gains here, irrespective of PoG rising from it's current level, are greater than elsewhere in my portfolio. Simplistically, even a return to a reasonably conservative market multiple of 10x is effectively a 10-bagger! Given the sky-high PERs of some gold stocks on the N.American exchanges, I do not feel that is an unreasonable expectation. Or that the comparison with the S&P average of c. 26x is yet another demonstration of the degree to which some market valuations are totally unbalanced.

But it is only my opinion and it is only my capital that I choose to put at risk. What others may do is obviously entirely up to them.
Chip

[goldminer70] 13/1/2016 14:14

I agree Chip. The call for A Teo "to be released" is similar to when football teams lose a few games then there are calls for the manager to be sacked.

What MML needs is stability, after GD had to resign through ill health A Teo stepped into the breach. We expect the production in the next 2-3 weeks and it will all become a lot clearer then.

Goldminer70

[chipperfrd] 13/1/2016 12:44

With respect guys, however one may view A.Teo, he is not the main determinant of the share price. It is the performance of the mine & mill and the earnings generated that will eventually govern the price - even if it's only the ASX upon which MML trades.

The fundamentals of the stock have improved markedly since mid-2014 and continue to show quarter-on-quarter improvements. And with the final mine haulage configuration due to complete within the next 6-9 months Co-O looks set fair to settle down into steady-state, optimum production with investment outflows dropping to purely sustainable levels from what are already pretty low levels compared to the protracted 3-year expansion - which we all badly want to forget about!

Current PER (based on FY15 numbers) is currently a miserly c. 1x! I contend that this cannot remain for much longer as it is a dramatic undervaluation compared to literally every other producing gold miner that I monitor.

We obviously need to see the 2Q operational figures and even more importantly, the 1H16 financials, but I find it difficult to imagine that the hard-won gains made over the last 18 months are likely to have been dented much by the SAG mill re-line or the subdued gold price over 1H16.

It has been a very tough period since the highs of 2011 and in retrospect their timing for the expansion was awful and their chosen GM to lead the expansion proved to be a disaster. But we are now in 2016, the finish line is close and the mine management team led by Rob Gregory has done a great job. What we now need to see is some market recognition of the turnaround achieved and a market multiple applied that is on a par with their peer group on the ASX.
Chip

edit: contrast MML's PER of 1x with the S&P 500 average of c. 26x !

[deka1] 13/1/2016 12:14

Good Video, gold , oil etc

[deka1] 13/1/2016 11:19

Hi Guys , re the share price drop ,we are very tied to the POG, and over the last couple days gold dropped $20, I agree with all of you that the accountant A Teo, is not a miner, never will be, and they should know this anyway, and get their finger out and find / appoint a new mining man as CEO ASAP.