Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[deka1] 16/12/2015 20:58

Eintracht that's all it will take , gota happen sometime mate,gold moves of 10-20 dollars a day common now,someone told me a long time age that when we saw these types of moves the end game would be getting near,do you remember Chris Mcglone , used to post on the CEY board and on here , thats who told me that iirc,i hope he was right , I had a lot of respect for his opinions on these boards.
good luck and all the best to you and yours old pal.
Whats the weather like in OZ ;-0

[eintracht] 16/12/2015 19:24

Yes Deka, still holding. I'm at the point where its pointless selling now. I'm waiting and hoping for the day when just one person says "I want my Gold and I want it now"!!!

[deka1] 16/12/2015 16:14

The Cosa nostra aint got a look in with these guys

[deka1] 16/12/2015 11:42

Hi TF, thanks ,I hope its someone building a stake up,need all the help we can get bin this market.

[deka1] 16/12/2015 11:40

Hi Eintracht thanks , having a pensioners moment ,hope you are well mate its been a while , good to see you hanging in there, it'll all come right in the end , I hope lol,but it sure is painful getting there.

[tightfist] 16/12/2015 10:56

deka,

After days of pathetic volume (only 200k last Friday) 13m is quite something. Paradice hold about 11.2m and Dimensional now at about 10.3m; will be interesting to see in due course if there is a new substantial holder accumulating.

Over the past year, big volume spikes have generally been followed by broad share price moves. of course, a lot of that was generated by Van Eck dealings.

Cheers, tightfist

[eintracht] 16/12/2015 10:31

No deka, end of tax year here is June 30th.

[deka1] 16/12/2015 06:46

13 million traded ,a big holder rollover maybe , December end of tax year in OZ

[deka1] 15/12/2015 15:01

I agree with you TF ,its a strange looking B,O,D for a Gold miner, I suspect old philsaga family conections somewhere in the past,nepotism , jobs for the boys perhaps.

[tightfist] 15/12/2015 12:58

Hi Goldminer,

Many thanks for the clarity regarding the REAL reason for the Q3 shortfall. We were told early this year that the SAG mill would need an early re-lining due to damage by loading over-size ore during the PH-B era. I think there was also the prospect of increasing recovery due to improved milled size control.
The positive is that RG was on the case with clear communication, now that we don’t have GD. I take that as a good sign; for the past 14 months it was the CEO who handled Shareholder communications.


steve, deka;

I empathise with your views on A Teo. Prompted by some of steve’s recent observations about current Board structure, I have taken a look backwards. Until November 2013, the MML Chairman has always been an “mining industry man” since the early days of Kevin Tomlinson (2005-2010), through Peter Jones (2010-2011), and then GD (2011-2013). Tellingly, the 2010 Annual report has 15 lines of CV for Kevin Tomlinson, 14 lines of CV for Peter Jones, 17 lines for Geoff Davis – and just 5 lines of CV for Andrew Teo; upon appointment he was listed as a director of 48 companies…..
[Incidentally, the now departed Robert Weinberg had 14 lines of CV, and resigned Gary Powell (2013 AR) commanded 11 lines of CV – both heavy on mining or mining finance].
Raul Villanueva has 8 lines of CV starting as an attorney, and then as V-P of Philsaga.

In summary, the only Board member who seemingly have any background experience in Mining away from MML/Philsaga is NED Ciceron Angeles, who had 9 lines of comprehensive CV in 2011 AR, and is based in the Phillipines.

One asks, what hope do we have with the leadership of the current Chairman who condoned appalling communications under PH-B, now leaves us without a CEO, and confuses a Shaft with a Mill? The circumstantial evidence looks pretty gloomy to me; indeed, one is left wondering how A Teo came to be appointed Chairman and his role going forward. The Board looks pretty weak too, now that Weinberg and Powell have stood down.


Not so cheerful tightfist

[deka1] 14/12/2015 15:07

Hi Steve,unbelievable yes, but he's just an accountant lol,how do they get these top jobs is beyond me,a number cruncher running a mine .
Te suppression of gold cant go on forever,it just has to end sometime, sooner the better, but it has to happen for the miners to recover,prod and cutting costs wont be enough imo,you gota get a fare price for your product.

[stevea171] 14/12/2015 12:11

Goldminer. Thanks very much for following up the mystery wrt the alleged L8 shaft closure. Good of Rob Gregory at least to reply and clear up this point.

Very bad form by A. Teo to ignore your follow up query to your meeting and to mislead you in the first place.

This is in addition to misleading all shareholders by his public statement at the AGM and contained in an RNS:
>>>> "gold production in the December 2015 quarter will be slightly lower .... due to the repairs on the L8 shaft ...." with no mention of the real reason for the lower production ie mill closure for mill relining.

How can a chairman of Medusa be unaware of relevant facts about the company and to be so casual as not to correct his mistakes both to you and to the AGM in the RNS that was released to shareholders to set the record straight.

We seem to be dealing with someone who disqualifies himself for this key office in important known things he says and does. No wonder PHB got away with murder when A. Teo was probably unaware what forecasts he made and if he kept to any of them or not .... or even if he was aware how that might be a problem that required some appropriate ACTION on his part as Chairman!

Beyond belief ............

Dek. My guess is the mill will close from 24/12 which gives them 9 days (inclusive) for the reline to 1/1/16 with possible extension to 14 days total if required. But they could start the mill shut down earlier. Who knows?
As Rob says the mill can easily catch up in Q3 as it's well under utilised.

Yes, Medusa could 10 bag or more in future. That is what probably most of us are expecting and have bought and hung on for, but to date both the company and gold price have been performing out of left field and who can say where the gold price will be in a week or a year given this continuing level of suppression .... ?!

[deka1] 12/12/2015 14:38

Chip-- ERROR lol

[chipperfrd] 12/12/2015 14:22

By the way, if anyone does decide to check the USGS data sheets - make sure you use the Yearbook data and NOT THE SUMMARY SHEETS!

I can hardly believe it but was shocked to discover that the summary table contained BULK tonnage figures rather than fine gold tonnage. Thus this data was incredibly misleading - in fact it was completely useless!

For the 1992-2014 period, if one used the summary data you would have ended up with a net flow for US gold of -1,572 tonnes.

If you used the yearbook data the net flow became -4,028 tonnes - quite a difference.

Imports had been over-stated by +517 tonnes
Exports had been under-stated by 1,085 tonnes
Consumption had been under-stated by 855 tonnes

Resulting in a net error of 2,456 tonnes. Just shows how careful you need to be with government figures!
Chip

[deka1] 12/12/2015 14:20

Cheers Chip,it just feels to me that the gold rigging game is coming to an end.
Everything else that the crooks have corrupted, Libor,FX, etc have been outed-
Only the gold market left to put right,i think the time is soon.

[chipperfrd] 12/12/2015 14:06

Following on from Deka's earlier post:

I am of the opinion that the vice-like grip of the London & US paper markets on the pricing of gold (and silver) is coming to an end.

The best cure for low prices is low prices! The Chinese, Indian & Middle East domestic markets have taken advantage and have steadily drained available gold away from London & the US - but there are limits to how much further this can continue.

Ronan Manley has done some great work on the total London vaulted gold which already looks stressed and unlikely to survive another year without defaulting on deliveries.

I have waded through all the historic data of the USGS and have concluded that the US has been a net exporter of gold over the last 44 years (since the closure of the gold window in 1971). It looks like the unexplained shortfall is several thousand tonnes which tends to add weight to the doubt over whether the US Reserves are anything like the 8,140 tonnes that they are claimed to be.

Even the total vaulted gold in the COMEX is falling. It peaked at 361 tonnes in 2010 but has now fallen to 196.8 tonnes this week.

The US stocks of gold in ETFs peaked in 2012 at 2,690 tonnes but now appear to be at c. 800 tonnes.

US gold coin sales had reached 31.8 tonnes as of 1st December but the US Mint has decided to terminate further sales on the 16th Dec.

Silver coin sales from the US Mint have set a new record in 2015 with 1,457.1 tonnes sold as of 1st dec.

The current extraordinary lengths being taken by the Indian government to quench demand and to gain supply back from the c. 20,000 tonnes of domestically held gold would also appear to be a strong indicator of the stress that has developed over gold availability.

Meanwhile we also see monthly additions by Russia and China to their gold reserves which themselves add up to a significant drain on Western vaults.

The PBOC does not make it's purchases via the Shanghai Exchange so their additions are over & above the countries domestic purchases through the SGE which had already reached 2,404.9 tonnes by 4th Dec.

So the question becomes 'how much longer can the paper markets control price'?

I imagine that the default of the first weak link will occur in London and I am guessing this will happen within months. So although the decline over the last few years has been very difficult, I certainly intend to see it through into the resumption of the secular bull in gold.

The current situation would appear to chime with the end of the London Gold Pool and again with the 2001 bottom, both of which took years for the mining industry to recover from, so I imagine that global production will suffer for a great many years due to staff lay-offs, abandoned projects, reduced discoveries, et al.
Chip

[deka1] 12/12/2015 13:29

Steve just one more thing I would like to mention,IF we can see the POG get into a rising trend , they could re implement the 7 day working, that's a potential 40% increase in prod, when the climate is right and all the shaft works are completed I mean.

[deka1] 12/12/2015 13:14

Cheers goldminer.
I wonder why they take accountants to the presentations lol,they wouldn't know a spanner from a hammer,or a shovel from a pan,amazing that he was a year out, good grief , it just goes to show.
If the shut down starts on Christmas eve,7 days prod would be lost for 2nd qtr.
I think that's over 2kozs,so prod for 2nd qtr could be around 29kozs

anyone know when they plan to start it,

[chipperfrd] 12/12/2015 13:06

Cheers GM70, that makes a lot more sense. Thank goodness for RG! He does know what he is talking about.
Chip

[goldminer70] 12/12/2015 12:33

Steve Tightfist and Chip.
I continue to be impressed with the quality and friendlinesss on this board.
I fear I misled you slightly. When I met Andrew teo he definately told me that the shutdown was to increase the size of the L* shaft. I sent him an EMail asking to confirm this. He never replied. So I emailed Rob Gregory and he replied.

"Hello Alan,
The December shutdown is actually a Mill Reline which will take about 9 days but they have allowed 14 in case of issues. The mine will continue to operate and build a stockpile. The Dec quarterly guidance will be slightly down as a result of the reduced milling days, but the full year guidance remains the same as the mill is under utilised and will catch up.
Andrew might have misunderstood your question as the L8 Upgrade was last Christmas.
Regards
Rob Gregory"

It confirms that that Andrew Teo is an accountant without detailed knowledge of what is happening on site.
Goldminer70

[deka1] 12/12/2015 07:42

Cheers steve,we all feel the same way about it ,mismanagement is exactly how to describe things.
If the gold price had not been forced so far down by the fraudulent activities of the comex I don't think the fall would have been so dramatic ,the whole sector is decimated .
If gold can somehow free its self from fraud,and find true value ,, the miners , or whats left of them,
can recover strongly , and quickly ,remember 2009-2011 , medusa over 20 bagged with a rising gold price and increased prod.
Its gut wrenching, and makes us angry , because we are unable to do anything to change the way gold is priced, we just have to suck it up and wait and hope for change,and change will come, I don't know when but the fraud will be shut down eventually .
We have witnessed how quickly MML can move , because of its illiquidity in both directions,so imo when the POG changes direction and starts an uptrend to true price range , imo around 1700/oz the move of MMLs share price will be just as dramatic as its fall.
I think 1700 gold is a good price to aim at because things always overshoot ,
and 1900 could have been over shot.
Good luck steve.

[stevea171] 11/12/2015 22:07

Dek. Yes, still a holder but massively disappointed by this investment and being held hostage possibly for years to come as a result of gross mismanagement and failure in communications.
Time is opportunity.
Medusa getting back to $1-2 in a few years time is better than a complete loss but not a result I or anyone should treat with equanimity ....

[deka1] 11/12/2015 21:49

Steve hi if you don't mind me asking ,are you still a holder of MML.

[stevea171] 11/12/2015 19:50

Tightfist. I don't personally think there will be a further cash raising but 'the market' is pricing Medusa to do just that.

The share price been taken down to 35-36c for a number of reasons, but one of them is to pre-empt such a possibility. And Medusa is not the only one. It doesn't matter what the company says, it is not believed, after so many years of lying and missed forecasts. Now cash is supposed to be generated but the opposite is happening and may continue in Q2.

The market's judgement is unforgiving for companies that have lost massive sums for all investors and fails even now to perform as expected. Production numbers are irrelevant if cash is falling and continues to dangerous thresholds ....

[tightfist] 11/12/2015 19:29

Hi steve,

Yes, Q2 will disappoint in terms of cash accumulation compared with expectations two months ago - apart from the CEO appointment delay (= uncertainty about RG being crowned) I guess the "slight" Q2 production reduction has had an adverse share price impact (despite the reassurance about FY production guidance being upheld), especially when compounded with PoG weakness.

I would have hoped that the market would have respected cash consumed when paying-down Payables and Borrowings - but I never fail to underestimate the short-term nature of the market/analysts/investors......

As for raising funds, I really cannot see how MML would get to a situation to raise new funds…….

Building on Chip’s post #35258 I cannot see why the quarterly cash cost should rise from Q1 of $14m; (in fact it should drop with less energy consumption (ventilation project), cheaper explosives, etc.). They will stope mine the same amount of ore (but not put it into stope inventory, which is rising by 20,000 tonnes or 4,800 Oz per qtr) and haul the same amount of rock – but soon it will contain more gold!

The additional costs of Development, Exploration, Capex and G&A should reduce from $16m to $13m when the Service Shaft and Ventilation projects are complete, which suggests total cash cost of $27m. If they hit the production mid-point guidance of 35,000 Oz/qtr (as advised on 17th June but not re-confirmed) then we could see $771/Oz AISC until the L16 shaft project gets underway.

Please don’t speculate PoG is going below $770!


Have a good weekend. tightfist