Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[deka1] 05/1/2016 14:22

Cheer for the posts guys, I wholeheartedly agree with you, an accountant at the wheel is not what we want to see, we need a mining engineer/ geologist, nothing less will do,what good is an accountant at running an underground operation, a bloody bean counter is a job for the boys type of position imo.

[stevea171] 05/1/2016 14:11

Tightfist. Yes, best to wait for now to see what appointments are made and how Q2 worked out in a few weeks time.

Also like PHB he doesn't reply to emails sent to him. ref Goldminer and myself.
That is a part of his job as exec CEO, if not as Chairman, but he is clearly not doing the job with any acceptance of responsibility for the now, let alone all the disasters and wasted years whilst he has been Chairman.

Doing something effective about him is not so simple so best to see if he redeems himself in the next few weeks.

Yes, agree Rob is conscientious, experienced and on the same wavelength as GD. If he is not appointed CEO that is likely to be one step too far by A. Teo.

[tightfist] 05/1/2016 13:10

Hi Steve,

I could not agree more about the underlying reasons for low volumes and the MML share price chart - the recent reference to SBM.AX shows what is possible for a smallish ASX Goldie over the past year. Regarding AT's behaviour you are on the button factually.

In particular, over the past 15 months, when a specific piece of major operational work is completed we have received a very timely RNS confirmation. From memory, I think they allotted themselves 15 days max to complete the Mill re-line, with an internal target of 9?, so maybe they are still on plan? I havn't checked the posts. [The key thing I want to hear is that they have been accumulating at least 1,000t per day surface stockpile during the mill shutdown; when it comes back on-line the mill has lots of surplus capacity to catch-up Q2+Q3 production].

Heaven knows what salary AT is now drawing as "Exec". Chairman; I shudder to think. It seems like an opportunist way to recover his (15)% salary cut - and more.

My post #35408 posed the question about what we are able/going to do? I suppose we now have to wait until a CEO appointment is announced - if it is not RG then we surely have to DO SOMETHING.


Cheers, tightfist
PS: I cannot agree that GD was a one-off. Though I have only met him once so far, I would say that RG is just as straight as GD, but a little more open.

[stevea171] 05/1/2016 11:22

Tightfist. A. Teo has engineered massive uncertainty. Hence the fall in the sp, low volume and reluctance of buyers to come in at this stage at this price or at any price.

Uncertainty.
He has missed his own time scale for appointment of a new CEO with no explanation or progress report. That the exercise was wholely unnecessary is also disturbing.

Since the AGM when he took over as CEO there has been no operational report of any kind. If the mill reline is complete and work is back to normal there should be an RNS to update the market that (1) the reduced production is for this reason not as he wrongly gave in November and (2) that full production has resumed from mine and mill.

He has missed the Q2 release of the Bananghilig updated reserves/resource report that was promised a number of times last year with no explanation.

It would seem his MO is completely in line with what we had before with PHB. ie ignorance, mismanagement, missed deadlines, lack of reporting or clarity.
GD was a one off. It seems A. Teo has learned no lessons even after all that has happened. Meanwhile he rakes in $500k - $1 million pa salary for his two "jobs".

[tightfist] 05/1/2016 10:30

Hi deka, Chip;

Following-up the discussion on alignment of mine/mill capacity in 2016, it is clear that from late Summer 2016 they are going to max-out on L8 shaft haulage of ore, nominally 1,700tpd. The situation regarding Upper Levels offtake is less clear. The Annual Report (pages 14, 15) made interesting references to some Stopes not being mined until PoG rises and the cut-off grade reduced – ensuring “profitable ounces". In other words, don’t expect management to fill the Mill with low grade ore to max-out at 2,500tpd (mine licence limit?).

On the face of it this policy doesn’t seem to make sense; with all the development drives and mill infrastructure in place the MARGINAL cost of production from the Upper Levels must surely be very low. What would make a lot of sense is that the headline Cash-Cost reporting measures will be protected and enhanced – maybe this is what is focussing management attention? – RG mentioned an “aspirational” $800 AISC last October (#35043, #35056).

Deka’s reminder about the mothballed Ball Mills is interesting. During the era when every shareholder derided the SAG Mill, PH-B made a quite a play on refurbishing the old mills. I trust that they are still in place if the SAG Mill suffers some catastrophic failure. Or maybe they can help create early cash-flow when opening-up a new property in future?


Volume has virtually dried-up over the past two weeks. Whether it needs PoG action or White Smoke from the Boardroom to bring back the punters remains to be seen! Decent volume would help secure the inverted H&S Chart pattern.

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 05/1/2016 08:48

5.5% rise on very low vol.

[arja] 05/1/2016 07:43

same to you Deka1 - nice to see MML put on 1.5 in OZ on back of higher gold price .

[deka1] 04/1/2016 17:49

AYE abacus,when I first bought MML in 2008 ish it was at 38p, and it went up to north of a Fiver, with no where near the production they are doing today,
but back then gold was going only one way, then it wasn't .

[abacus23] 04/1/2016 15:48

deka1,

Oil has moved up 2.2% on my charts.

Gold now up 2%, hopefully we can push towards 40c, Seems a terrible target! We should be targeting $1.40!!

[deka1] 04/1/2016 15:26

all the best arja

[deka1] 04/1/2016 13:27

Chip hi, and thanks, I just hate to see the old plant doing nothing lol,
I will content myself with being satisfied with getting the operating mine/plant up to max and running smoothly .
Cheers Dek

BTW I thought oil would have moved up on the events in the ME.

[chipperfrd] 04/1/2016 12:57

Dek

Without going back and wading through my notes I am pretty sure that the planned max haulage capacity (ie all shafts and declines) is a close match to the capacity of the sag mill (ie 2500tpd). So I do not expect any further increase from the mine or mill once the L8 is fully released to only haul ore & waste (around Sep Qtr 2016).

Ideally, the haulage and processing at steady maximum throughput should roughly balance the forward development of new stopes so that everything comes into balance. At that point production should be a straight function of tonnes x grade x recovery (ie c. 204kt/qtr x 7.2 x 94% = 44.4koz/qtr). The question may then arise as to whether grade will improve with depth - as it may well do with such an epithermal system. Also there could well be slight improvement to recovery - say 95% under steady-state conditions.
Chip

[arja] 04/1/2016 12:42

nice bounce in gold on back of SAUDI and IRAN tensions ! happy new year to fellow
posters .

[deka1] 04/1/2016 12:30

TF hi , all the best to everyone for 2016,
A little fantasising for the start of the year eh, how about this---
When the mill is operating at full cap, 2500td, do you have any idea how much the shaft haulage will increase to over this figure?,with all the mods to increase haulage operating at max how much could they haul up each day, any idea ,because if they could haul 3500td up the hole, we have another milling circuit standing idle, and I think more or less ready to go,the old mill can process 1000t/d, I know the ball mills were relined before they put it into care and maint mode.

Is it feasible to do this or not, iyo.
Cheers Dek

[chipperfrd] 04/1/2016 10:12

Happy & Prosperous New Year everyone!

[abacus23] 04/1/2016 10:05

nice move up in gold, 1.2%, i presume this will be back to 0% at 2:30. :(

[tightfist] 04/1/2016 09:50

Hi Deka, I am hopeful we may soon be advised that the SAG Mill re-lining is complete (extended life, slightly better recovery??) and they have created a temporary surface stock pile of high-grade ore (10,000t?, 2,500 Oz?) to be processed during Q3. The Service Shaft must surely soon break through from the surface kibbling, and then expand outward to finished size; I think that is the published plan for Q3.

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 04/1/2016 07:51

Shut down should be complete , shaft work done, and increased haulage from now on .

[atlantic57] 02/1/2016 14:42

Hi dek happy new year lets hope that the worm turns in 2016.
Agree your comments

[deka1] 02/1/2016 13:23

Atlantic hi, those with the lowest aisc and least debt to sevice and good production, will likely survive imo, but I agree, those with a lot of debt and costs above the 1100 mark will be in big trouble, all the best to you for 2016.
Be interesting to see how many of the small outfits have gone under in the past 2 years,and what the global production will be for 2015.

[atlantic57] 02/1/2016 12:49

August I don't think the two bullitin boards are very far apart now.
The words chosen may be different for example words such as liars or failing to meet expectations.

For me going forwards if gold makes its long promised recovery to the upside then medusa has significant
Upside potential.However if gold breaks to the downside or fails to break out many miners will go bust.

The skill will be to identify the winners which will not be easy.

[augustusgloop] 01/1/2016 22:59

There is some discussion on chip's MML thread about MML's AISC.
They are trying to be too clever.

Working out the AISC for MML is quite simple.

5 years ago they were mining at 100k oz per year.
They are now mining at about 100k oz per year.

The amount that they have spent in keeping mining at this rate is roughly equal to income from gold sales, less dividends, less money spent on Ban... plus borrowing, plus placing.

Roughly speaking the AISC per ounce in this 5 year period is equal to the average sale price of each ounce of gold that they produced.

If they can start running consistently at over 25k oz per quarter - then it will be a bit less than this.

I thus guess that the AISC of MML is about $1,300 --- roughly what the analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

[tightfist] 01/1/2016 17:56

Hi Chip,

Many thanks for your usual, very factual, posting. I am away overseas until next week, and will then take a deeper refresher on all the FY15 figures. Your reminder about the asset impairment charge and reduced D&A is a point well made. I just hope that the end of the Tax Holiday is very well flagged to avoid another accounting surprise to the market; we need another of those like a hole-in-the-head.


Speedsgh,

Your reflective thoughts and position are quite similar to mine. I too am over-invested in MML when considering the chart and relative share price weakness. Whilst the fundamentals IMHO are beyond compelling, I am not prepared to further increase holdings and average-down again, especially during the CEO impasse. However, I have plenty of time on my side to let the fundamentals play-out over the coming months/years; I am only accountable to myself.

A couple of other comments:

GD's inspired actions were to develop a strategic plan and contract RG for what I saw as an "extended interview". I was greatly impressed by RG when I met him in October and I am immensely frustrated that his appointment as CEO has stalled. However, I he is confident and his "own man", hence my recent speculative comments about him maybe being a tough negotiator to get comfortable with the organisation.

Whilst I am loathe to criticise people impersonally and from a distance I just don't understand what AT is contributing. The behaviours and events that he condoned during PH-B's shift were deeply damaging. Just maybe we will soon be offered an adequate explanation for last Autumn's CEO and Boardroom saga, but I seriously doubt it will be seen as necessary, let alone forthcoming. Do we think that we can muster sufficient clout from this BB to force a change? Should we brainstorm some approaches?

A low-ball bid leveraging the current position that gains the support of totally disillusioned Shareholders would be a complete travesty.


Happy New Year everyone! tightfist