Mcbride Share Discussion Threads

[queenbreguet] 19/9/2023 07:18

Lets see what the market thinks about results

[boonkoh] 18/9/2023 17:30

Looks like many other traders are bullish for tomorrow's results....

[darrin1471] 18/9/2023 17:18

Added a few more today to trade the results tomorrow.
Very overweight MCB

[blueball] 18/9/2023 16:13

Super chart today.

[oldtimer169] 15/9/2023 08:12

Great expectations for Tuesday.The share price has yet to fully reflect the improving trend IMHO.DYOR

[darrin1471] 13/9/2023 10:17

"full year results will be announced on 19 September 2023"
Tuesday

A few extra trades pre results pushing up the price.

[wooster4] 13/9/2023 10:04

expecting a very bullish forward looking statement. In the trading update, volumes were up 5.4% for the year, but by 12.7% in the 4th quarter. If that trend has continued into the first quarter, expect broker upgrades.

[boonkoh] 13/9/2023 09:29

Poised for a breakout past 45p? Good rise last few days despite wider market sluggishness.

[darrin1471] 16/8/2023 17:25

I downloaded todays trades and the average price was 39.1.
65% of trades by value were above 39p
8.5% of trades by value were at 38.5p which is where there was a 60,000 buy order on L2

[blackhorse23] 16/8/2023 08:29

Bought some GATC today

[darrin1471] 15/8/2023 10:22

Now a 250,000 buy order at 38p on L2

[darrin1471] 14/8/2023 16:43

There was a 150,000 buy order at 38.5p on L2 today.
Hopefully that draws a line under last weeks consolidation.

[darrin1471] 08/8/2023 12:56

They probably supply Wilko. Wilko's problems have been well flagged for several months giving MCB plenty of time to manage any money owing.
With MCB's large international customer base this can't be an uncommon occurrence.
Any lost revenue will be taken up by other discount retailers who MCB also supply.
So IMO any loss would be in the normal costs of the business and not material.

[warranty] 08/8/2023 11:25

Do MCB supplu Wilco and if so will their impending closure adversely affect the company?

[darrin1471] 03/8/2023 20:04

Up another penny today.
Again 25% of the trades today by value were above the closing price.
Today started off quiet with the buyer staying in bed until 10:30. Yesterday there were 60 trades before 10:30

[darrin1471] 02/8/2023 21:20

MCB are now over 60% up since the trading update in July
Up over 30% from 5 day low.
Trading volumes are high and strengthening.
25% of the trades today by value were above the closing price.
I'm enjoying the ride.

[darrin1471] 02/8/2023 21:09

nobull: My point in 1118 was "current trading profits are back to near normal levels".
After H1 figures that will be a massive turnaround so I wanted to back it up with some numbers. If there is an error in my thinking, I hope there is somebody out there to point out the error.
"current trading profits are back to near normal levels" should put MCB back to 60p.

My expectations however are more than just "normal levels". I think MCB will make exceptional profits over the next 18 months. I can not back this up with numbers. Demand for own brand goods are rising. All suppliers need to rebuild margin and some went to the wall which will take out capacity. With rising demand, lower capacity and lower input prices MCB may be in a sweet spot for the next few quarters and beyond.
I believe MCB history shows high input prices in the late 1990's led to a collapse in the MCB share price ahead of the 2000 market fall and an early recovery for MCB as input prices fell. Recent rises in input prices were a lot more significant than 1998.

[darrin1471] 01/8/2023 10:51

200k buy order has moved to 37.5p @ 9:41
another 200k buy order at 38p @11:16
Sell orders at 40p have moved to 41p and 41.5p @ 11:26
Small bot trade of quantity 48 went through at 41p at 11:26
12:44 Market makers on buy orders moved range to 38.1 to 39p. Sell orders moved range to 42 to 42.5p
13:49 MM buy orders moved to 39 to 40p. Sell orders moved to 43 to 43.1. Except for Singers
14:50 MM buy orders moved to 39.5 to 40p. Sell orders moved to 43 to 43.6 including Singers
15:30 MM buy orders moved to 39 to 40p. Sell orders moved to 42 to 43.1
15:48 200k buy order has moved to 39.8p

[darrin1471] 01/8/2023 09:21

There is a buy order of 200k @ 38p on L2.
Sell orders are all above 40p

[darrin1471] 31/7/2023 21:41

MCB got a couple of mentions on the channel 4 show "secrets of supermarket own brands" tonight. They were comparing soap powders. Apparently own brands only make up 20% of detergent sales
Accrol the loo roll maker had a 3 minute cameo showing their automated Blackburn factory.
Retail analyst said customers move to own brands at times of financial stress but rarely move back to the big brands later.

[darrin1471] 31/7/2023 17:26

Friday and today MCB ended the day on 12 month highs.
I downloaded todays trades and 36% by value went through above 37p. Another 45% above 36p. Less than 1% above closing auction of 37.2p

[darrin1471] 31/7/2023 10:05

Unusually active trading in MCB shares this morning. The highest priced buy for a year.
MCB currently up 35% since FY trading update and 115% over 12 months.

[darrin1471] 15/7/2023 13:32

Afterthought. Increasing volumes using existing capacity is very profitable.

[darrin1471] 15/7/2023 10:54

Comparing H1 to limited FY information.

H1 revenue 426.3 (+30.3% at constant currency)
FY23 +"28.4% on a constant currency"
FY22 678.3
Est FY23 revenue 870.9
H2 est revenue 444.6

H1 volumes up 1.2% (2.6% in private label)
FY volumes "up 5.4% for the full year, following 12.7% growth in the fourth quarter"
By my calculation Q3 volume growth is about 7%
H1 1.2%
Q3 7%
Q4 12.7%
Accelerating volume growth.

H1 revenue minus volume growth would be 421.3
H2 revenue minus volume growth would be 404.4
From that I would say average selling prices fell by 4% in H2 due to falling input costs.

Net debt closed at GBP166.5m which is only a slight improvement on last year but a significant improvement on the guidance of 181 to 186 provided less than 3 months ago. Lower input costs and better operational profits.
Higher interest payments on the higher debt will be a profits drag for several years.

H1 adjusted operating loss -1.3
FY adjusted operating profit "materially ahead of current market expectations" (9.7) and "at the top end of the range indicated" (up to 13).
I will use 12 as my forecast
So H2 adjusted operating profit was 13.3
H1/24 adjusted operating profit should be higher than 13.3 if volumes continue to rise and falling input prices boost margins.
H2 adjusted operating profit annualised would be 26.6

In 2022 Adjusted operating loss was -24.5 EBITDA -8m eps -0.157 cf -44m debt 169m
In 2021 Adjusted operating profit was 24.1 EBITDA 39m eps -0.058 cf - 9m debt 143m
In 2020 Adjusted operating profit was 28.3 EBITDA 38m eps 0.07 cf 33m debt 146m
In 2019 Adjusted operating profit was 28.1 EBITDA 46m eps 0.014 cf -11m debt 135m
In 2018 Adjusted operating profit was 36.2 EBITDA 51m eps 0.061 cf 5m debt 126m
In 2017 Adjusted operating profit was 45.1 EBITDA 47m eps -0.015 cf 20m debt 102m
In 2016 Adjusted operating profit was 36.2 EBITDA 51m eps 0.115 cf 22m debt 116m
In 2015 Adjusted operating profit was 28.5 EBITDA 29m eps 0.017 cf - 1m debt 116m
* Adjusted operating profit taken from annual report and other numbers from fidelity


My conclusion is that MCB has seen a rapid improvement in H2 and current trading profits are back to near normal levels.
MCB share price is up 50% ytd but still only 25% to 50% of its value 2-5 years ago. IMO a 100% rise to 60p should be rapid.

I also see a possibility that MCB will make exceptional profits over the next 18 months. It depends upon the strength of MCB's competition across Europe. Pre Covid margins were under pressure as competition was fierce. That competition would have been exposed to the same cost pressures experience by MCB. How strong is that competition today, did they survive, did they go bust, has capacity been reduced, are they looking to improve margins to repair balance sheets or gain market share.
When input prices were rising MCB were on the loosing end of pre agreed pricing contracts. As input prices fall MCB should be able to rebuild margin along with competitors. MCB gaining volume could be seen as competition being weaker.

MCB has had a very difficult 2 years. As they exit debt and interest payments will be higher. However the stock has not been diluted, in fact there are currently fewer shares than 5 years ago due to the badly timed share buy back. The debt deal they did last September will, I believe dilute MCB's shares by 11% in the future.

Finally we should expect revenue going forward to be under pressure as higher volumes is unlikely to offset falling input and selling prices.