Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[alter ego] 09/11/2010 08:20

David, your efforts are much appreciated and your use of diplomatic language is understood despite the aggravation felt at the way some in the company believe they can act.

[davidosh] 09/11/2010 08:12

I am not suggesting that I have any insight whatsoever as 'materially' could be anywhere between 10 and 20% IMO but it could certainly correct upwards if there is a good trading period during Christmas so please do not automatically assume the year end result must be at least 20% below the £9.4m forecast that was in the market. I personally think that it will still be within 10% below by the final analysis and update BUT more importantly there is great potential now for significant growth in 2011 and huge savings with the new warehousing and systems in place for the full year from March.

The Board know what has to be done and the Sainsbury contract is a good example of what can be achieved to spread the business from dominant customer risk. At the Agm I advised the Board that I would not consider the sale of the business to any party until we were dressed to kill in our best attire which meant...running super efficiently in the new warehousing, with a nice new Morrisons contract and proving how new income streams and business can be delivered into the group. I still see our role as shareholders to be a long term one and I have been liaising with PC in regards to a new non executive director as long term needs (and short and medium for that matter!) definitely includes at least one new non exec. I cannot say too much but I am hopeful of an appointment quite soon.

We as shareholders need to stay as close as possible to our investment and encourage the Board by showing our support. Communication, communication, communication is all that was needed IMO and it has improved already. There is more to come and the company have already granted a presentation from Matt Porter of GMV who as we now know has been very busy in the Sainsbury initiative. I shall advise everyone when the date of that presentation is known..

[sif12] 09/11/2010 00:02

hi guys

picked this one up from another board. read a few of the rns'a dn lrecent posts.

I would assume quite a few on the sidelines, sucs as myself wary of the major contract with morrisons expiring possibly next year. any thouhgts as to when negs night be concluded?

clearly, if the contract is renewed, and assuming 'materially' means from £10m to say £7m, then EPS around 30p still makes these very cheap.

sif

[scott84] 08/11/2010 21:43

Should we be checking all the other retailers websites to see if they
have signed up Mubl then ? :-))

I wonder if that person has not posted it yesterday would the company
have kept quiet about it ?

Quite a good client list now, Morrisons, Sainsburys, WHSmith and Best Buy.

I've had a look at U-Xplore tonight, that just might surprise a few and you
might see why Mubl paid so much for that small stake.

I recall forcasts being slightly lower than the last reported PBT of 9.9 mil
and then a "materially lower" profits warning after, that still says to me
they are going to make approx 8 mil PBT before todays deal.
Confirm that Morrisons have renewed their contract and the stock will hit
new highs medium term, it cannot stay valued at 20 mil with all of this
going on with no debt etc etc.

[edmundshaw] 08/11/2010 16:37

I agree too jeffian; bringing media in house might be a nightmare, and where would they acquire all the necessary skills in picking titles, let alone the efficient buying, packing & delivery logistics.

I suppose they could buy MBL... :)

On the other hand, they already use a provider who can now quickly enable them to achieve an on line presence in the entertainment media market (and possibly more, as discussed). Of course, they might want to do this at the same time as initiating other online offerings, but if anything, I see more upside risk (medium term) than downside (shorter term).

In addition, they are getting on with Morrisons negotiations in good order. Even if there is bad news, we have plenty of time to adjust one way or another. And we have our resident retailing guru PC to help out...

Also like to add my thanks for this contract getting out into the open.

[davidosh] 08/11/2010 16:36

As an aside but also very on topic. I cannot quote the source but when I mentioned that this work and contract with Sainsbury had been flagged up on the GMV blog months ago they seemed very informed and stated that it was not this contract and not the same retailer but another one. Mmmmm

I rather think they are working quite hard on alternative income streams and certainly helps to show we are in a stronger position if negotiating with Morrisons and the like.

[marben100] 08/11/2010 16:29

gg, good to see you here. :0)

Well done to those that pressured the company to issue an RNS and thanks to CharlieBrown for his digging.

[scott84] 08/11/2010 16:26

Bit small for you GG, hope you intend to hoover if they dip it, could
do with that in this stock to support price.

O/T.

Check out DCD, 2 Israeli stakebuilders now if i'm not mistaken.

[greengiant] 08/11/2010 16:06

jeffian, I agree, I don't see MRW bringing it in house, especially if MUBL offer the on-line part too.

Scott - I am deeply hurt and picked some up this morning just as a punt

:-)

gg

[jeffian] 08/11/2010 15:34

greengiant,

I accept the obvious risk of having a large proportion of one's business dependent on one customer. Arguably, the most famous example, about 10 years ago, was MKS cancelling overnight their contract with clothing manufacturer William Baird after a 30-year relationship. However, I don't think setting up an in-house multimedia marketing business - with now an ecommerce platform - is quite as easy as going to another clothing manufacturer or taking products in-house to existing bakeries. I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying it's unlikely to come out of the blue and happen overnight which is presumably why MUBL are falling over themselves to widen their customer base and service offering.

[scott84] 08/11/2010 15:26

Careful GG :-))

Last time you were posting all cautious etc etc you were buying on the
side (tnd) !

What do you think David ?

ha ha i would not be surprised if he's got a order in, lets face the
forward PER will only be around 2-3 now with no debt and a large divi.

[davidosh] 08/11/2010 15:22

It would be useful if you guys make the odd purchase from Sainsbury entertainment online and keep your order number and date so that we get a feel for the scale of things to come.

I would have thought it should be almost certain that MBL would get the job in one way or another of assisting Morrisons create an online presence and supply at least the home entertainment offering.

[greengiant] 08/11/2010 15:21

Jeffian,

There is risk associated with MRW simply by the very nature that they have been taking a number of previously outsourced contracts in house. Allied Bakeries used to supply their Fresh Breads, no more. Northern Foods used to supply their Pizza's - now winding down. I deal with them a lot and you can see the growing trend. On-line offers protection for their existing business.

gg

[miamisteve] 08/11/2010 15:12

What sort of figures can be expected from sainsbury's online?

Are we possibly supplying the stores as well?

[jeffian] 08/11/2010 15:11

Why on earth would MUBL get "the heave-ho" anyway? The relationship with MRW has been established over years and it's hard to see what MRW would replace it with in the short term. If every plc that supplied supermarkets was valued only on the remaining length of its existing supply contract, there's many companies that wouldn't be worth very much!

[shanklin] 08/11/2010 15:01

In terms of MRW, the ability to provide an online retail offer might reduce the likelihood of MUBL getting the heave-ho at the end of the existing contract.

[evaluate] 08/11/2010 14:53

Yes.

Worked out pretty well all in all.

Shows the power of sites like this.

[scott84] 08/11/2010 14:46

Big thanks to that poster who gave us the heads up on this Sainsbury deal
and a big thanks to the Mubl management for being their usual and delaying
the Rns to intraday day allowing so of us to top up below 100p.

[kimboy2] 08/11/2010 14:43

Sainsbury's is the first major customer to launch on MBL's innovative new Ecommerce platform, developed by our Digital distribution business, Global Media Vault Ltd, which management expects to become a major force within the UK online entertainment industry.

Quite like the sound of 'first major customer' particularly as Morrisons is going to test the online market shortly;

[scott84] 08/11/2010 14:40

Think medium term here, think of the potential profits, the shareprice
is probably on a PER of 2 if Sainsburys take off.

Price should be up 30-50p and probably will be in a little time.

What a bargain, Eps maybe 50p with a good xmas, a divi yield of 6-7% at
current prices.

A strong hold and good to see them release the Rns, small shareholder
power i hope did it.

[jeffian] 08/11/2010 14:22

LOL! It's usually the bb's reacting to RNS's, not the other way around! Good news, all the same.

[someuwin] 08/11/2010 14:19

Excellent news!

[devymaster] 08/11/2010 14:12

Finally out including news that discussions have commenced with regard to the Morrisons contact:

[supernumerary] 08/11/2010 13:53

dd - no I haven't. I only hold a very few of these and haven't really taken it very seriously. I bought because it seemed like a decent dividend yield and a pretty safe business model :-) You seem to have good contacts there - why don't you discuss it with them? Ticketmaster is pretty universally loathed and there is surely a gap there, at least with small venues. Their Wikipedia article makes interesting reading: