Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 14/10/2010 17:29

As PC stated today, he has been over a number of allegations with a fine toothcomb and if he'd found anything untoward he would have resigned. You either believe him or you don't.

The company also employs 3 chartered accountants, including the FD, all of whom would need to be on board with the skulduggery you're suggesting.

Why don't you just focus on stocks where you have some sort of interest rather than continually posting slurs and innuendo here? I certainly would not want any of their lawyers coming after me for alleging inappropriate or illegal behaviour in the absence of any supporting evidence.

[edmundshaw] 14/10/2010 12:31

And many thanks to David for organising the call.

I hope the air is cleared so that the next event can be talking about the business, with the charts, and the business presentation, and the rationale, and the numbers gone into.

Unfortunately I had to disappear after 35 minutes, so missed a lot. I'd be interested in the U-Explore details (even if it is a spider not a lion), mainly because I'd like some rationale for the price paid, which seemed pretty full for 15% of a nascent business (but who knows without more communication?!?!).

[edmundshaw] 14/10/2010 12:26

"Despite PC's explanation, I am still not clear why you launch a strategic review just before analysing the year to dates figures. If they had done it after analysing the figures and issuingh the profit warning, that would have made more sense."

This was made clear by PC in the call. They were forced into the first announcement by the takeover panel. As they were in contact with the latter, they must have been mulling any takeover for a bit. If not an MBO, this makes sense; if an MBO it looks a bit strange, but they must have known anyway the numbers were "good enough" for an MBO to be worthwhile.

I'd rather we didn't go down the route of more insinuations and implied accusations where there is no evidence. PC's point that he would resign immediately if he had any whiff of malpractice works for me. As he said, why would he risk a business reputation that has such value for a (for him) minor concern like MBL gp?

[liarspoker] 14/10/2010 12:01

Yes, that's because I was pricing it on my net working cap model yesterday. I did a lot of reading last night and combined with the CC this am I am now valuing the company as a going concern.

Also if you take the proper meaning from my post it states that the maximum price I will pay for this company is the price I paid this morning. Also notice that it's a small purchase which is not material to me ( though a 50% profit is always welcome ) and that I said I'd buy more if the value gets better. I wil lthen pyramid down in buy size ( ie small at high prices, bigger at lower prices ).

Edit: Here is how I basically calculate net nets - though factors for each company varies as I am sure you understand.

[scott84] 14/10/2010 11:56

Strange it was too dear yesterday but today a bargain.

Liarspoker - 13 Oct'10 - 16:40 - 2608 of 2629


No Shanks, too expensive. :O)

[liarspoker] 14/10/2010 11:53

It seems to me that this business should be valued at at least two times net working cap giving a price close to 180p. Therefore I agree that they'd get away with a 150p MBO but that's over 50% upside from here and still includes a large margin of safety should the MBO ( if there is one ) be at a lower figure.

Personally I am hoping for an outside bid but, hey, you've got to keep dreaming right ?

[microscope] 14/10/2010 11:49

I wasn't there but welcome the comments on all sides. It seems from reading them that they have yet to fully satisfy holders particularly re u-explore, on the other hand fears about numbers may have been overcooked.

I sure sense a lot of shareholder frustration and/or anger and that might help in future, though tiswas your comment about 'getting pests off our backs' is rife imho in AIM companies that should want the exact opposite and is interesting.

Was this mentioned (link below)? Of course I know that UK and Ireland are different legal sytems, but it might ably demonstrate that when something is so endemic, it is going to prove almost impossible in practice imho to stop, however fine are words and intentions. The trouble is computer geeks always seem to be several steps ahead of legislators!

All imho.

[deswalker] 14/10/2010 11:46

I agree with that tiswas. An uncomfortable event for all concerned and I can't believe they'll want to go through it again. I suspect there's a decent turn to be had from these levels but they may well get their way with a 150p Offer.

My basic premise is that:

- Either purposefully or not they have created a vacuum of uncertainty and given the impression of a lack of long term strategy with rather ad-hoc purchases.

- However, they probably do have a clear well-developed strategy for the future but have chosen not to disseminate the details to shareholders, either because they didn't want to be premature or perhaps for some other reason ...

- That the possible Offer is almost certainly an MBO.

- That it is incredible to think that ANY possible MBO would be announced without management knowing where the figures were roughly, and thus in a position to warn on profits first as they should do in such circumstances.

- That, hypothetically speaking ofcourse, putting out a profits warning first followed by a "possible Offer" RNS second would have seen a much higher share price than if the announcements were made in reverse.

Well done to Bluehone for giving them both barrels and very well done to David for organising this. Hopefully others will keep up the questioning at the AGM.

Des

[shanklin] 14/10/2010 11:39

Mine were the last set of questions in the CC.

Q1. On illegal downloading I was pleasantly surprised that MP was as bullish as was the case about the potential for sharply reducing illegal downloading in the next few years. Time will tell as to how this pans out in reality

Q2. As we're currently trading at an share price below TBV, I asked about some aspects of the BS valuations in the 2010 annual report. LC stated that she was comfortable with the valuations of property and inventory in the BS and that inventory valuation was something to which they paid considerable attention.

Q3. It was also confirmed that the new IT system (which went live in August 2010) and the new warehousing facilities to be used from 2011 will enable MUBL to:
- be more efficient
- able to cope with greater business volumes.
Presumably this will help margins and one would hope that rather focusing on coping with the huge ramp-up in volumes over the last two years, MUBL will be able to put more effort into ramping up sales volumes further going forward.

Q4. In this context, it was interesting to hear PC confirm that they have current business dealings with supermarkets other than MRW albeit those supermarkets don't want the arrangements published as yet... ...so not material at this point.

HTH. Cheers, Martin

[tiswas] 14/10/2010 11:34

My take was that they did what they had to do, albeit reluctantly, and they can not wait to get us off their backs and take this private.

Low ball MBO circa 150p is my forecast.

[deswalker] 14/10/2010 11:32

fft,

Despite PC's explanation, I am still not clear why you launch a strategic review just before analysing the year to dates figures. If they had done it after analysing the figures and issuingh the profit warning, that would have made more sense.

Yes. Almost unbelievable don't you think what with the possible Offer being carded too ? :-/

I am not sure that this profit warning will end up being a profit problem in the end.

I also agree with this. The question is whether minority shareholders will be in a position to benefit.

Des

[miamisteve] 14/10/2010 11:19

The cc will be on replay.

Cowgill set out at the beginning to dispell rumours and slurs. Something about funneling off money to fund TA brothers restaurant, which I'd never heard about.

PC's bonus was a one off which was made to him instead of share options which he had been promised when he first joined the company.

Couple of funds laid in straight away, saying the reason all the rumours start is because of the poor communication. Gave an example of one fund who had sold out solely for that reason, and the first caller spoke of MBL being the only company he holds which he has no contact with the company.

TA got defensive with another fund manager and told him to come down and see for himself, which backfired when he said he had asked for years to comeback via email and had been rebuffed.

PC accepted this and said that it would be put right also spoke about getting a further non-exec on the board, and having regular shareholder forums.

TA seemed genuinely frustrated at not being able to go into the figures and promised to do so in December.

Got the impression that the business still had a lot of life left in it, and it was not fighting for it's survival.

Was cut off during Matt Porters talk on u-xplore and GMV, but caught the end where they were talkig about a UK crackdown on illegal downloading, which will help all parts of the business.

Also pretty sure that they are considering the mbo and had been soft playing the news, but have realised that it has got completely out of hand.

[davidosh] 14/10/2010 11:18

Geeeezzz that could have continued for another hour at least and shows how much lack of communication in the past is coming back to challenge them now and why so many rumours surface !? Even the institutional holders were all moaning about poor communication and lack of meetings in the City. Two claimed to have never met TA and it is fair to say that communication or lack of it on all fronts was a common thread all the way through.

Maybe this presentation to investors and the cnference call idea can be the start of a new era....I shall ask for the same to be made available after each set of results to enable discussion.

To just keep everyone aware of those on the call....there were seven institutional holders, Graham Edwards our new shareholder and over forty private investors. TA, PC, LC and MP were all representing MBL.

[someuwin] 14/10/2010 11:03

Bought a few back here.

[langland] 14/10/2010 10:56

If someone could give a brief summary, it would be appreciated by those unable to participate this AM.

[fft] 14/10/2010 10:55

DD,

thanks for organising that. I dont think i have ever heard inst. so aggressive towards directors. hopefully it has acted as a wake up call. They really should have given us the explanations they cant give now over the summer when they could.

Whilst the u-explore explanations were nice, it is very hard to get a handle on just what kind of revenue/profits we should expect.

Despite PC's explanation, I am still not clear why you launch a strategic review just before analysing the year to dates figures. If they had done it after analysing the figures and issuingh the profit warning, that would have made more sense.

I am not sure that this profit warning will end up being a profit problem in the end.

[scott84] 14/10/2010 10:54

You make it up as you go along LS.

[liarspoker] 14/10/2010 10:53

Yes, I am. :O)

Though I must admit to not following the company in depth since I sold out at around 180p ( through good luck mainly ). Bought an initial little stake back this morning and will add on further weakness.

[tiswas] 14/10/2010 10:50

Anyone any the wiser?

[liarspoker] 14/10/2010 10:46

Yes, good conference call.

Thanks for organising it Davidosh - it's appreciated.

[strollingmolby] 14/10/2010 10:41

Re illegal music downloads, surely education of youngsters who don't currently pay for content could be conducted via the UExplore portals in each school?

Am very impressed by the answers provided by Matt Porter, the e-digital director, this morning. Hopefully he will attend any presentation to shareholders in the new year.

SM

PS David, many thanks for teeing the call up with PC, TA, LC & MP (& KPMG!)

[jeffian] 13/10/2010 23:02

David,
I'm out all day tomorrow and can't make the con call. Is it going to be recorded for future access? If so, can you send me the number? If not could you post a report on the salient points here? TIA.