Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[burgerbarwomen] 09/10/2010 18:22

spot on CR

couldn't have put it better myself

the same general mistake was made on LNG

when will posters learn to accept the majority of bear views as well meaning, constructive, negativity

usually on a small cap when all dissenting views are not tolerated/shouted down.... it's time to get out

this has 50p written all over it....... I'm not saying this for a wind up but that's how I feel....

[jonc] 09/10/2010 18:11

How funny.

On the BLNX thread yump is pleading for analysis.

When he gets it here he gets all grumpy.

LOL!

[cockneyrebel] 09/10/2010 17:56

I tell you why yump - I'm a smart guy. I also like people posting contray views or concerns regarding stocks I hold. I can distinguish between the deramper and a guy that has thought of a potential problem I might have overlooked. They just might save me a few bob if they tell me about a genuine problem or anomaly that I've overlooked.

I'll tell you how you make mistakes investing. You spend your time so much believing what others say and so much believe what a board of directors say that in the end it isn't that you don't hear the contrary view, you just end up not wanting to hear it - much like the lunatics on the RGT thread that HateTrader ramped there too or the nutter threads on ADVFN where everyone is in love with a stock.

There's an old saying - 'there's none so blind as them that won't see'. You're probably too young to understand what it means but if you get an adult to explain it to you it might help stop you losing a load of money in the future imo.

And by the way - I haven't seen this new government law that all opinions have to be sought after.

CR

[marben100] 09/10/2010 17:24

"Is there a convention?"

Yes. 10% below or more is considered "material", I have been advised by other companies reporting. I am not aware of any distinction between use of the terms "material" and "significant".

CR - fair points, though it remains to be seen what the actual results are. The company does have a consistent track record of beating forecasts. Given solid business at Morrisons and new clients such as W H Smith and Best Buy, I really cannot understand how they reckon profits will be lower. As usual, MBL has NOT communicated any changes of forecast to the wider investment community (until this profits warning).

Nevertheless, I do not believe that this is a dying business - and don't think there's any real evidence for that view - so want to get to the bottom of what's really going on, and the very strange timing of the company's announcements.

Mark

[cockneyrebel] 09/10/2010 15:58

If we can avoid the hosilities if I just ask a question.

If sales are lower than last year - and they have the 'new ventures' (as they describe them) adding to sales this year, then sales on a like for like basis must be down somewhat more?

If sales on a like for like are down then profits on that part of the business are likely to be well down too imo as I can't see that they have been raising margins on falling sales. Then take into account the losses that the 'new ventures' are making which will reduce the earnings further and I'd be surprised if profits were not down by a very significant amount.

I did question here why it was when sales were forecast to be a lot higher this year than last year yet profits were going to be flat or less than last years forecasts. I was told it was the company's usual cautious approach. Sales are now forecast to be flat but the co says they will be lower than that.

I'd say whatever the turnout the forecasts here (guided by the management) have been too optimistic rather than cautious, considering they are entering new fields with businesses that have yet to generate much revenue let alone profit imo.

Did anybody notice the reduction in sales on the forecasts above before now? £28m reduction in forecasts looks a pretty severe reduction imo.



CR

[maxcashflow] 09/10/2010 15:54

So what does 'material' mean? Is there a convention?

[kimboy2] 09/10/2010 15:45

I would say that was 'significantly' below.

[jeffian] 09/10/2010 14:09

fft,

No, trader got the gist of it. Sorry if it was badly expressed. What I meant was that the implication of the statement was that revenues would come in somewhere between last year's actual and next year's forecast. Not only should an actual fall in revenue vs. 2010 have been expressed as such but even if 'like-for-like' sales were contracting, in the current year that should be more than covered by sales to new customers such as Best Buy and Smiths coming onstream. On the other hand profits "materially behind market expectations" could mean anything!

Having said that, I'm not sure I trust anything from this lot at the moment. I'm holding on in hope, but rather expecting the worst.

[fft] 09/10/2010 13:46

edmundshaw,

assuming the DVD market is like the gaming market, the big retailers have already made their orders for Q4. It takes time for production and distribution, so this sort of thing is done well in advance. I am not sure if orders are sale or return (i.e. not sold then they can return them to MUBL for a handling charge), but i have a feeling they are not.

[fft] 09/10/2010 13:43

trader1066, post 2567

Jeffian said

"Like philjeans (2548) I'm struggling to get my mind around the idea that REVENUE is down. With the Morrisons contract still developing and substantial new customers coming onstream (Best Buy), it's hard to believe it can be below last year - "

i.e. Jeffian said that revenue is down compared to last year, which is not what the RNS said. Please re-read !

[davidosh] 09/10/2010 13:39

There are lots of us going to the AGM but more importantly I am battling away to have a Conference call facility available for ALL shareholders to ask questions this Thursday morning as the AGM has been set at a time that is totally unshareholder friendly. If we do not get that conference call then we must seek alternative remedy.

[edmundshaw] 09/10/2010 13:09

Tragic??? H2 is the main half, and how much will they know about demand over that period at this stage? H1 distribution is small beer, and the new projects are going OK.

Without more info, really we are in the dark. I hope the AGM attendees can convince the co to be a bit more forthcoming with RNS detail.

[ramas] 09/10/2010 13:02

if the numbers aren't specific - you can assume they are tragic ...... luck to all

[fft] 09/10/2010 12:57

Jeffian.

They said

"Overall revenue and profitability for the Group is behind forecast"

Nothing to do with revenue compared to last year !! A big difference.

[fmcalorum] 09/10/2010 12:01

They need to give investors more information instead of just negative RNSs

[kimboy2] 09/10/2010 11:53

jeffian
They haven't said that revenue was down. They said that revenue was behind forecast.

I have no idea what the forecast revenue was though. I presume it wasn't lower than last year.

[burgerbarwomen] 09/10/2010 11:48

it's simple peeps

folks are downloading more digital media online from a wide range of sources....some devious individuals even do this for free!

a trend which can only continue/increase

and with 'browns breeders' set to lose all their freebies things can and will get worse..... yes, the loss of these outrageous benefits paid to middle class families who expect hard working single people to fund their family/holidays/decision to have children...... will impact on the market mubl operates in


edit:

more than happy for a hard working low income family guy earning say 22k gross to get child tax credit but limit should be around 26k...