Mbl Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 08/10/2010 10:08

If there was a serious problem why would management want to buy it ?

[rrogans] 08/10/2010 10:03

Could the problem be Morrison's? I.e. something out of their control?

[devymaster] 08/10/2010 09:38

Anyone able to see what the ratio of sells to buys is this morning? Is the stock being dumped or just the mm's marking the price down? Personally brought in my sipp for the long term so continuing to hold to see how this plays out.

[miamisteve] 08/10/2010 09:32

The 2 rns should have come out at the same time.

microscope - Think you're jumping the gun a bit to say the business model is broke. What precisely were market expectations for profits? Think there's only one broker covering the stock.

[yump] 08/10/2010 09:26

tiswas - 8 Oct'10 - 09:07 - 2529 of 2530

...They must have known 48 hours earlier...

Yes, that's the bit that stinks. They must know the likely effect of any mention of a bid on the share price and the effect of any profit warning. Considering these are extremely sensitive and important annoucements, they would have had the full approval and knowledge of the board.

So either they are all extremely stupid and let the RNS's go out of control in their timing, or... well we know the 'or'.

imo as well, they are taking the p..s

[microscope] 08/10/2010 09:08

I fear the business model may be broken.

Understandably I think, people, myself included, were wooed as much by the company's cashpile as by the results and dividend.

Perhaps the U-Explore move was a tacit, maybe even subconscious, acceptance that they needed to move away from their base, but I think many of us feel it was poorly explained and was (or looked) little more than an outright gamble - and that they very probably overpaid. That and heavy ongoing reliance on one customer who themselves are likely to be reviewing their strategies in a ferociously competitive and belt-tightening environment.

On fundamentals the stock remains cheap imho, but the fundamentals are supporting a past, or at best an increasingly uncertain future, direction.

Maybe an MBO at something in the high 100s doesn't look such a bad option now for shareholders, if management are buying an outmoded business model? Or of course, maybe that is exactly what management would like followers to think!

I did mention One Media Publihing recently on Plus, which has doubled in the last few months, as I think, people recognize it provides a more forward thinking and realistic way ahead in the current business environment.

[marben100] 08/10/2010 09:07

"Could not agree more, in fact I would probably take less now."

So the RNS has achieved it's objective of scaring some s/hs?

Management's actions (and I agree, they stink) suggest that they're looking for an MBO - as cheaply as possible. Shareholders will not achiveve the best price by caving in as soon as management try to spook us. MUBL's main trade is done over the Christmas season. I understand that sales relating to that have not begun yet. How can they possibly judge that profits are in doubt, following the weakest part of the year, and before they know Christmas order levels?

The timing of this RNS is extremely suspicious.

You do NOT conduct a successful negotaiation by underplaying your hand and showing weakness. Despite concerns, we DO hold some cards and I am very happy to see Graham Edwards, who is clearly nobody's fool, come on board.

If TA wants to take the business private, given complete failure by the market to recognise it's value (aided by posts like CR's just based on "feelings", without facts), I don't blame him. All that other shareholders ask is that they receive a reasonable price. TA already receives unrealistically high remuneration for a business of this size. Without that overhead, EPS would be around 45p. Is a multiple of 6 + net cash too much to ask?

People had better grow some backbone if they want a reasonable deal - and not be taken out at well below 200p, which would be an absolute steal. Fortunately, I think that the largest shareholders will be more skilled negotiators than some of those posting here.

Mark

PS, don't forget that management can state that they expect profits will be "materially behind market expectations" if they can claim their current views are just 10% behind those expectations.

[miamisteve] 08/10/2010 09:01

They state that the new ventures are in line but revenues have fallen.

I don't buy the argument that they have purposefully let revenues so that they can mbo. I think there are some genuine concerns.

[deswalker] 08/10/2010 09:01

tiswas,

I never liked this share for the basic corporate governnance issue now emerging but finally succumbed at 125p to the tune of 5k shares, reasoning that everything has its price and that was low enough for me.

The key to this situation for any action group is twofold. One, ensure that the institutional holders are of the same opinion as the group as their shares and muscle are obviously vital. Two, burn as few bridges with the Board as possible. In the past I've been party to an "all-guns-blazing" approach to a situation like this and it failed miserably.

The reality is that this company is worth far far more to TA than anything resembling the current share price and is worth considerably less than fair value for minority holders. Hopefully the big boys can get a dialogue going to sort out a buyout level, but if it ends up being anything over £2 then I'll be surprised and delighted.

Des

[tiswas] 08/10/2010 08:42

Des

4) Talk of anything around 250p is wishful thinking. I put 220p in the online spreadsheet but after all the bad smell I'd take £2 in a heartbeat and move on.

Could not agree more, in fact I would probably take less now. Let's hope that David and chums, with our support, can stir this up a bit. Peter Cowgill seems to be the obvious target as no one seems to give a damn about shareholders imho, but at least he has a reputation to protect, you would think.

[fmcalorum] 08/10/2010 08:16

"As announced on 5 October 2010, the Board is currently undertaking a strategic
review and is also taking positive steps to address this anticipated fall in
profitability... "we need to know what the positive steps are now!!

[dnfa1975] 08/10/2010 07:47

But GECR said it was a good un

[cockneyrebel] 08/10/2010 07:29

Well David if you and others never saw this coming it shows a degree of naievty imo - the writing has been on the wall for ages.

Someone has been dumping 5k and 10k slugs of shares for a year - no RNS as to who it was ever.

I asked a question about Sefton, it wasn't a comment - free speech not allowed now?

As for the divi - why not declare an interim divi that's paid a month after the interims and no final divi? Or if the shareholders matter then move your year around? But they speak about the final divi after the interim period as if it's the interim divi too - giving a false impression. The excuse re cash-flow is a load of old tosh imo.

We'll have to agree to disagree about this one - I was chased all over ADVFN by HateTrader on threads of stuff I hold, being told I was mad not to buy these, I was a liar, I was a deramper. I was pstered by several on my thread to buy them too. I just hope a few took notice of my reasons why I don't like this co. It's no vendetta, it's years of experience of this type of model, AIM, director speak and smelling the air. Bar goonertone, nearly every post I made here was met with 'deramper', 'liar', 'clueless'.

Some on ADVFN who occasionally post views on stocks they don't hold do so because they have genuine concerns and are not out to knock the stock in order to buy it cheaper - that isn't my style. It's just a hope that a few actually think about the issues and just question their bullishness in case they might be wrong.

I wish holders the best outcome.

CR

[yump] 07/10/2010 22:20

Er, I don't think anyone has been in love with this for some time.

Anyway, I hope larger pi holders don't get hit too hard.
Its a choice between a rock and a hard place now. Sell up on the warning and depress the price, allowing them to take it out cheaply, or don't sell and wait for the token value cheap buy out.

Which will deliver the best worst result ?

I guess that KPMG are not exactly going to do the job for a few hundred quid, so that's a few hundred thousand more straight off the p&l account.

OK the bankers should take some stick for the macro problems they created and paying themselves silly money, but so should quite a lot of PLC directors. Hopefully some of them will get their come-uppance, come the glorious day, brother.

Its time for a change - just because people haven't really been angry since the 70's, doesn't mean they won't get angry again.

[cockneyrebel] 07/10/2010 21:57

They've just warned that they will materially miss marben so something is wrong.

Ask yourself this - they pay a divi but the final divi doesn't go xd until after the interim results - that's a nonsense for a co that has good solid cash flow. I've never heard of it ever before. If it takes that long to pay the divi just pay an interim divi and no final divi.

They pay a guy a fortune to run this co because they don't know anyone else to run it - you're tied to that guy. And having paid him that much he apparently doesn't travel further south than Watford to meet shareholders, if he meets them at all.

The stock has never traded on a decent PE as MBL are Air, Music and Media because the co gets squeezed by supplier and customer as a distributor - they have no contol over their costs.

All I've heard is people moan about the communication here - that's Cowgill - look at JD. and UCG - there in no communication from the guy. It borders on arrogance if not going beyond it.

Am I right that Sefton are connected to the board in some way with their directors? And they've been selling ahead of a profit warning?

DVD and CD market is shrinking. It' hard enough for most co's to grow in growing market so they are up against it. Just going off into downloads and these employment tardies or whatever they are just isn't what people invested in MUBL for even if they genuinly believed in the model. Would you really invest in an AIM start up for mp3 downloads and the other nonsense they've just got into?

It's easy to fall in love with a share but love is blind.

Anyway - they are some of the things that put me off buying and I love a low PE - just consider them imo instead of shooting the messenger imo, albeit a bit late now I suppose.

Hope you're all not hit too hard anyway.

CR

[marben100] 07/10/2010 21:07

It's not to do with gloating. It's to do with why the share price is where it is.

As davidosh pointed out so eloquently, this is a business that has performed very well for the last 7 years. People have been prematurely proclaiming the death of physical media throughout that period. Has anything changed? No - except that the business is becoming more efficient by bringing new warehousing on-stream and adding online media to complement its traditional business.

The business has no debt, pays a dividend and has a healthy cash cushion. Even if profits halved this year (highly unlikely IMO) it would still be on a P/E of 6.

The reason the S/P is so low is because management appear determined to win a prize for worst investor relations:

- Poorly worded RNSs
- Refusing to meet with even some of their largest shareholders
- No effort to appeal to City/institutional community
- Opaque acquisitions
- Apparently poor corporate govrenance, with just one non-exec, whose independence is called into question by the large bonus he was paid this year for no clear reason.


Management seems entirely happy to allow the share price to drift down, when there is plenty they could do to restore confidence. Why would they act in this way? I do not accept that they are "naive". Peter Cowgill is highly experienced.

My only conclusion is that it suits them for the share price to be depressed.

CR's posts - which have added no new information - merely negative personal opinion, with little foundation, may have helped them in them in this process. We'll find out soon enough what the game is. If I turn out to be wrong and there IS something fundamentally wrong with the business, which I very much doubt, then I'd be man enough to apologise to C/R. I hope he'd have the balls to do likewise if a lowball offer materialises, which his posts will have aided and abetted.

Mark

[deswalker] 07/10/2010 20:39

Just catching up with things here and a few things occur ...

1) It is clear from the Strategic Review RNS that KPMG are acting for the "Board" and not for the Company. IMO they have clearly been instructed to look for ways of financing an MBO rather than looking for outside buyers or advising on any sort of future strategy, as then they would have been instructed on behalf of the Company. So as far as I'm concerned an MBO is the only thing being considered.

2) It is quite a relief that the "Board" has instructed someone of the stature of KPMG and not a back-street small-time dodgy AIM Nomad type outfit. They will clearly not be party to anything untoward.

3) TA has big plans for this company and I bet it revolves around something quite different from distribution and very probably linked to U-Explore which I suspect might turn out to be massive. Andy Pickles is a very smart cooky IMO.

4) Talk of anything around 250p is wishful thinking. I put 220p in the online spreadsheet but after all the bad smell I'd take £2 in a heartbeat and move on.

5) The first hurdle is to get sufficient votes to avoid a delisting. That's a third of the fully diluted number held by the Allan's, PC and Lisa Clarke which I have as 4,520,399(TA) + 1,467,682(TLA) + 733,831(JMA) + 200,000 (PC) + 12,500(LC) + 83,912(LC Options) = 7,081,324.

A third of this number is 2,360,442, which is the first hurdle to achieve to prevent a Special Resolution for delisting (assuming nobody else supports the Board).

[fmcalorum] 07/10/2010 20:31

It seems like every time the share price goes up they bring out an RNS to make sure it goes back down again!

[pote] 07/10/2010 20:30

CR Maybe people don't like others adding to their disappointment by gloating. If the roles were reversed I'm sure you'd be prepared to take it on the chin and would be angry if hatetrader turned up with an "I told you so" attitude.