Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[olliemagern] 20/1/2016 14:04

JDW half year trading update today LFL +2.8%, margin -1.1%. Y July16 f/c -2% to around 47.6p, @637p p/e 13.4. Poor, but no shock.
Expect much better from MARS next week. Y Sep16 f/c +6% to 13.7p+ @148p thats a p/e 10.8, oversold.

[exel] 20/1/2016 12:54

...in essence, guys, gloom being massively overdone! did anyone watch Mark Carney's speech at Queen Mary College Univ.of London yesterday? UK rates are not going up 'any time soon' regardless of the USA or others. Well worth a view.

[gbb483] 20/1/2016 12:26

... and with fuel prices coming down, disposable income will rocket. We obviously don't expect the public to spend the savings on anything.

[bbonsall] 20/1/2016 12:09

Just because China's growth in GDP has fallen to 6.9% it seems the market thinks no-one will ever buy another pint of Marston's or go out for a meal. Just shows how bloody neurotic the market is. We can only dream of 6.9% GDP growth here!

[exel] 15/1/2016 20:27

agreed RBall, a tad concerned and peeved about the price drop, of course, but not excessively worried. ex

[exel] 15/1/2016 17:47

just received the 2015 AR. Rather more presence in the South East than I had understood. Units By Region/ Destination&Premium/ Bedrooms/ Taverns/ Leased

Scotland/ 11/ 54/ nil/ nil/
North.England/ 89/ 129/ 261/ 102/
Midlands/ 134/ 217/ 430/ 173/
Wales/ 29/ 88/ 100/ 24/
South.England/ 134/ 309/ 68/ 42/

Total/ 397/ 797/ 859/ 341/
Dest&Prem/ B.Rooms/ Taverns/ Leased

[r ball] 15/1/2016 13:46

lost year. keep for yield

[olliemagern] 15/1/2016 12:41

GNK announce trading statement this year will be Wed 10th February, (three weeks later than last year).

[exel] 13/1/2016 09:35

totally agree, jeffian, very fair point, well made. ollie, thanks for those dates, ex

[jeffian] 13/1/2016 08:39

One other thought - another reason for the 'baked-in' slower growth at MARS (historically Wolverhampton & Dudley Breweries) is that the vast majority of their estate is in the Midlands and North whereas GNK (based in East Anglia), through acquisition, have a large exposure to London and the South East. I worked in the industry from around 1984 and I cannot think of a time when the South East hasn't outperformed.

[olliemagern] 13/1/2016 01:35

Excellent summaries above, GNK and JWD trading updates expected next week (19th and 21st Jan last year), MARS update the week after (27th Jan last year).

[exel] 12/1/2016 23:33

thanks jeffian - great summary & comparison re EPS and DIVS. + many good background points to address my question on comparative ratings. food for thought, for sure, and all noted. thanks also, Cisk, yes - the pension contribution was able to be safely lowered, but am not sure whether that may change (back up?) in future? will re-check that part of the announcement. rhomboid, thanks, - I too think that the scale of positive change at MARS has not been fully priced in. The net debt is an issue, but it is long-dated, not excessively priced and freehold-secured (in the main - need to check that again). thanks all, feel we have unearthed some solid content between us. ex

[rhomboid] 12/1/2016 22:27

Great post Exel, this is a major holding for me as it is a defensive stock that is transforming its business whilst the market as a whole seems to be oblivious to the scale of change.

[cisk] 12/1/2016 21:49

Hi exel, nice post.

Maybe you can remember better than me, but I do recall a reduced pension contribution going forward - it struck me as being quite meaningful given the current profit levels. Obviously dependent on what happens in the market...

Regardless, I think you are correct that there's been a lot of 're-profiling' of the estate and also the Thwaites acquisition was well-timed.

I will be adding on weakness; I plan to hold for 5+ years so in no rush for a quick gain and will let the rising divi be my friend.

My main concern is the level of dividend cover and I would like to see debt being paid down a little quicker; I suspect that this will come once improvements in the bottom line feed through.

[exel] 12/1/2016 17:22

interesting thread above, thanks all! - and today was prob. a buying or top-up op, in my view. most above would probably agree? a point worth noting is the more savvy city view (from those pros who have really studied this stock over the past few years) that an earnings inflection point is being (or has been) passed. why? MARS (v smart management) has been progressively 'clearing, cleaning & re-profiling' their 3 tier pub estate for circa 4 years, adding good beer brands in parallel, and is nearly through that process (ref: the 2015 finals commentary). Tier 3 - their older & smaller, wet-led, low growth, uneconomic, low image units have largely been sold/shed/closed (at a drip drip P&L cost over circa 4 years). Tier 1 - brand new and/or refurbed dry-led (i.e. with food/accomm) well-scaled FREEHOLD units have been added, at an impressive rate, and these are generally performing very well. Tier 2 (the mid-range outlets [in the middle of the estate] which lack the scale of T1 opps (so don't fit there), but which have much better prospects than T3 units, have been (nearly all) franchised to entrepreneurial MARS-loyal operators, who (vetted, appointed, and helped by MARS with central support) run their own shows, so de-risking the group (which continues to invest in T1 having pretty much exited T3). final point: now do the maths and compare the diverse ratings of MARS and GNK (all figs approx via Digital Look and BSL): Are GNK really worth their premium??

Yield 4.6% MARS v 3.7% GNK
Cover 1.84 v 2.05
PE 11.9 v 13.4
PEG 1.24 v n/a
Gearing 159% v 133%
SP 159.5p v 898.5p
TNAV ps 90p v 106p
TNAV to share price 56.4% v 11.8%

- tend to agree that MARS 'won't double its SP' soon-ish, as some suggested, but neither will GNK from that (so much higher) present rating. if MARS really is passing the inflection point that I have seen noted by some analysts, their earnings growth on a much lower rating than GNK could nevertheless push the share price along. in the meantime, 4.6% v 3.7% with 56% TNAV cover v the share price against just 11.8%? dyor! if my figs are wrong (digital look don't always get it right) please let me know. ex

[gbb483] 31/12/2015 15:13

Now the Christmas break is over things should return to normal - the low volumes over the holidays meant that there could have been large price deviations for no sane reason.

As the price is midway between recent highs and recent lows the traders will sit on the fence to see which way everyone jumps, though looking at the longer term history my guess is that there is still further to go down before it turns.

[janekane] 29/12/2015 16:05

One for the new year
Optimists 5
Pessimists 1

Happy new year everyone (it's going very well for Mars best Christmas trading for 10 years)

[pjleeds] 18/12/2015 13:04

Cisk, I agree with your last post.

[jeffian] 18/12/2015 10:35

Crikey! I thought this was the boring old Marstons thread. Where have the Thought Police come from?!

[cisk] 18/12/2015 10:08

ha ha gbb483 - don't like your own medicine eh?

personally I didn't like your sanctimonious tone 'I told you so' in an earlier post. Folks tend not to like seeing stocks that they own go down and then some smart Alec commenting on it.

Perfectly happy to hear all points of views. Prefer not to see 'know-it-all' comments though. As you say, it's a free board and people can post what they like. Hence why I am doing so.

[gbb483] 18/12/2015 08:35

You're overlooking the fact that this is a "free" bulletin board, not a "cisk" bulletin board.

[cisk] 17/12/2015 21:29

Okay so we have a traders' view - and an investors view - on this stock. I don't want - or care to hear - a traders' view. If I listened to every numpty who thought they could predict the direction of a stock, I would have lost everything. Gloat when it goes up - or down - who cares.

So please traders - keep your council - but don't spout it here. You don't have a crystal ball, otherwise you would be multimillionaires and not post on here.

Folks who like fundamentals - views welcome. Either good or bad. Let's keep to the basics and welcome decent analysis.