Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[r ball] 28/6/2016 18:39

wait until row back on workers rights. National Living Wage (gone).

[speedsgh] 28/6/2016 11:02

True, but worth bearing in mind that much of the profit made these days comes from food sold in pubs, not the drink. Current share price weakness is partly a reflection of the uncertainty as to whether consumers will start tightening the purse strings + eating/drinking out less. I'm undecided as to the likelihood of such an eventuality but the Brexit vote has created this uncertainty. Aimho

[wygyr] 28/6/2016 10:24

bbonsall. With you there,in these times of uncertainty what better than a few pints of pedigree to calm one down.

[bbonsall] 28/6/2016 06:43

It is as though nobody will ever buy a pint again! Nothing will stop me enjoying a pint of pedigree.

[gbb483] 27/6/2016 20:18

The next week will see market manipulation by the hedge funds, best go away for a few days.

[exel] 27/6/2016 17:27

Lower sterling will promote #Staycation - MARS should benefit. This will bounce. ex

[spacecake] 27/6/2016 17:04

Here we are with an exit vote and turmoil in the market.

[gbb483] 17/6/2016 07:29

No, but cake prices will go up. There will be no one to say "Let them eat cake".

[spacecake] 17/6/2016 06:59

Would beer tax increase if Britain voted to leave Europe ?

[jeffian] 01/6/2016 23:13

If you're a trader, this share is a bore and it always will be. If you want to tuck it away long term, as I have done in my SIPP, and live off the divis while the share price looks after itself, it fits the bill. Horses for courses.

[exel] 01/6/2016 21:24

lower still, it seems?

[exel] 20/5/2016 15:19

thanks speedsgh - that at least part-explains the irrationally weak pricing this year. how low do these people expect this to go? have they read the interims?

[speedsgh] 20/5/2016 14:21

Was rather surprised to note that, according to the latest issue of IC, MARS is the most shorted UK domestic cyclical in the FTSE350 with 6.7% shorts (as %age of outstanding shares).

[thomasthetank1] 19/5/2016 17:55

Read Beaufort Securities's note on MARSTON'S PLC, out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0009772459

"This is a very good set of numbers from Marston's and we would normally consider an upgrade in profit but second half comparatives are tough. Having said that the P/E to September 2016 is 11x and falling to 10 in 2017 is not excessive and throw in a 5% dividend makes the stock attractive and we..."

[exel] 19/5/2016 09:15

thanks all! great posts. as stated ages ago, back up on this thread - an earnings inflection point (EIP) has arguably been reached (but not yet priced in?). This long-expected EIP first showed in the last finals and (moreso) in these very impressive interims. The company points to a tough comparitor for its forthcoming H2 results (given that the EIP really 'showed up' in H2 last year! So, given these very sluggish times, generally, investors may not truly believe that change has come about until H2.2015 is clearly out-performed, in the way that H1.2015 has now been. No ramp intended. This is a long play. But maybe consider 3 factors for a mo:
1. Forthcoming Euro Football (followed by Olympics)
2. Potentially warmer summer weather forecast
3. Trend towards 'staycation' - given weaker sterling and terror fears etc.
All should benefit Marstons, notably 3.

[speedsgh] 19/5/2016 08:49

Marston’s improving earnings as new strategy delivers -

Pub retailer Marston’s (MARS) has boosted its earnings growth through its disposals and ‘new build strategy’.

Shore Capital analyst Greg Johnson retained his ‘buy’ recommendation but does not have a target price on the stock following ‘strong interim results’. The shares rose 1.8% to 152.8p yesterday.

‘The key messages from Marston’s results for the six months to March 2016 are that the accelerated disposal programme and new build strategy is delivering earnings growth, dividend is growing at an improved cover and leverage ratios are improving,’ he said.

‘The stock trades on a full-year price/earnings ratio of 10.4x… and yields 5.1% - we see these ratios as attractive with the group delivering against its strategy. We believe 12-13x forward earnings and dividend yield of 4% is more appropriate.’

[thomasthetank1] 18/5/2016 12:13

Read Panmure Gordon & Co's note on MARSTON'S PLC, out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0009772459

"LFL sales growth was maintained at 3.0% outperforming the market (CPBT c1.0%). This strong trading combined with the acquisition of Thwaites last year, opening of 7 pubs and three lodges lifted Revenue by 11.5% to £428.7m, Underlying PBT 11.8% to £33.1m to give adj EPS up 11.9% to 4.7p and DPS up 4% to 2.6p (covered 1.8x). With momentum continuing into 2H, we believe that there is scope for upgrades to our 2016 estimates which are predicated on 2.0% LFL and currently show Marston’s trading on a 2016E PE of 10.7x and an EV/EB ..."

[skinny] 18/5/2016 10:13

Canaccord Genuity Hold 154.30 175.00 175.00 Reiterates

Numis Buy 154.30 185.00 185.00 Reiterates

Panmure Gordon Buy 154.30 175.00 175.00 Reiterates

[redartbmud] 18/5/2016 07:58

I have to eat humble pie. My confidence in the business plan was low, but for now it appears to be delivering results.

[skinny] 18/5/2016 07:02

Profit and cash flow growth from high quality pub and beer business

· Strong trading performance:
- Underlying Group revenue up 11.5% to £428.7 million
- Underlying profit before tax up 11.8% to £33.1 million
- Underlying earnings per share up 11.9% to 4.7 pence per share
- Profit growth in all trading segments
- Operating cash flow up £23.1 million to £81.3 million
- Leverage reduced 0.4x to 5.0x. Fixed charge cover up 0.2x to 2.6x
- Statutory profit before tax up £50.3 million to £22.8 million

· High quality pub estate delivering strong growth:
- Like-for-like sales growth of 3% across managed and franchised pubs
- Seven pubs and three lodges opened in the period
- First new-build Tavern successfully opened under franchise model
- High quality Leased business delivered like-for-like profit and rental growth
- Average profit per pub up 13% in 2016, up 44% since 2012

· Market-leading beer business continues to grow strongly:
- Underlying operating profit growth of 16% driven by Thwaites acquisition
- Strong brand portfolio continues to outperform market with volumes up 22%
- Market share up 1.5% in premium cask ale and 1.1% in bottled ale
- Hobgoblin Gold (2014 launch) now a 'top 15' premium bottled ale

· Interim dividend up 4% to 2.6p per share; cover of 1.8 times improved vs H1 2015

· Full year plans on track
- Performance to date in line with expectations
- At least 20 new pubs this financial year, including two Revere bars
- Five new lodges

Commenting, Ralph Findlay, CEO said:
"We are encouraged by our first half performance and are on track to meet our expectations for the year. In pubs, we have driven our growth by the organic development of pub-restaurants and franchise-style pubs, and more recently through investment in lodges and premium bars, widening our appeal. In Brewing, we had an excellent first half year and achieved good growth through our industry-leading brands and service."

[spacecake] 17/5/2016 17:21

The share price has gone nowhere for three years, until the company gets stuck into a serious debt reduction plan and get back to positive free cash flow the share price will continue it's sideways direction.

[lord gnome] 17/5/2016 15:48

Looks as though somebody is expecting good numbers.

[r ball] 17/5/2016 06:44

results tomorrow.

[martinc] 02/5/2016 13:27

I've been to our local new build Marstons for the first time. My expectations were low, but was pleasantly surprised. It was quite busy, they sold decent beer, and the food wasn't bad at all; certainly excellent value for money. We paid £44 for 4 (including drinks and 3 puds) after applying 2 for 1 on main courses, and using my shareholder discount card. I still prefer our remaining local independents, but will return to this one.

Well, there was a 40 minute wait for tables at the local Marstons yesterday at 1.30 when friends asked us to meet them there.. so we had to go somewhere else.

[cisk] 29/4/2016 10:21

yes agreed absolute rubbish

remember they make their money on fees - ensuring sheep follow sheep - very few make money from doing proper analysis and unearthing great stocks.

as for MARS, personally I'm not surprised by Restaurant Group's woes - Frankie and Benny / Garfunkles or whatever it's called might be past their prime, so I don't necessary see this as a read-thru to MARS.

I also own Fullers and have been in a few of their pubs recently and all have been busy, there are no MARS pubs close by so can't comment - however trading appears to be good, downsides for me of them are a) levels of debt and b) minimum wage increase.

However while interest rates are low - and disposable incomes rising - I think that this will support growth.

Are people really going out less due to brexit uncertainty? Are they saving more? Is the cost of debt going up?

Suspect the answer to all 3 is no at the moment...