Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 04/5/2020 13:09

Results delated until June.
Bad numbers take longer to add up.

[careful] 04/5/2020 10:03

Altman made a good point yesterday.
Over 70's, even if fit, stay under house arrest whilst other go free.
How will Prince Charles and Jagger react to that?

All about political correctness.
They dare not intern the vulnerable groups,
obese, ethnic, poor, unwell.

It would be a hate crime.

[fenners66] 03/5/2020 22:48

Some people think they should have the right to decide if they should take the risk of catching it.
Problem is not as much them , but their expectations of being cared for by NHS staff.
What is it ? 157 died already and 57 of them doctors.
Why should they be thrown under the bus , just because some idiots couldn't care less ?

[careful] 03/5/2020 13:53

A partial lifting of the lockdown will be difficult.
True that pubs and restaurants look risky.

But the density of people traveling on buses and the tube and working in offices is even more difficult to solve.
There will be so many anomalies they will end up opening everything with strict rules.

How can a football match be played or any physical contact sport? Are the players not allowed to tackle each other?

Pubs will need better spacing, still less risky than a tube journey or a flight on an aircraft though.

We will not need new laws, we all get it, we shall be too scared to become careless.

[loganair] 03/5/2020 13:42

Those hoping to visit pubs in the near future will be left crying into their pints, at home, as top doctors recommend staying away from the classic British haunt.

The deputy chief medical officer has indicated that visits to your favourite boozer is still a long way off as the battle to cut coronavirus infection rates continues.

‘If you go with a whole load of friends that you haven’t seen from before the coronavirus lockdown, sit in a pub in a very small environment, lean well over each other on the table and stay there for some hours face-to-face, that’s really not a good thing to do.’

Dr Jenny Harries, one of the UK’s top medics, was speaking as moves to increase travel and use of outdoor spaces stepped up a gear.

[wigwammer] 03/5/2020 13:24

I agree loganair and careful - the reflationary practices of government can lead to inefficiency with consequent implications for long term employment. But in the long run we are all dead - and the reality is as long as we are masters of our own currency governments will repeatedly kick the can. We do not know how long or to what extent lockdown will continue - there are inflationary and deflationary pressures at work. Probably best to keep an open mind than doggedly act on one line of thinking given the uncertainty.

[loganair] 03/5/2020 10:45

In the medium and long term bailouts and MMT are substantial negative consequences.

1. Bailouts stop bankruptcies. Bankruptcies stop inefficient business from draining capital which could otherwise be redirected to more efficient and productive business.

2. Bailouts reduce a countries productivity.

3. Stimulus is not very accurate.

4. Socrates "The secret of change is to focus all your energy, not fighting the old, but on building the new."

[careful] 03/5/2020 10:11

This false belief that the Government can fix everything with the right economic policy.

Luckily this time, after the 2008 financial crisis, George Osborne adopted a prudent financial spending programme, labour called it austerity, to reduce government debt to 75% of GDP.

So now we can risk turning on the spending taps and go to 100% of GDP
Well done George Osborne, we had spare cash to help with this crisis.

But that was a one off, we are moving into dangerous waters and our relationship with the chaotic EU. our biggest trading partner, does not look good.

In the long run it is how rich we are, otherwise every poor 3rd world country would be able to spend its way to prosperity.
There is no money tree that can create jobs and wealth.

[wigwammer] 03/5/2020 09:52

"Stopped quoting public spending stats (after just a couple of weeks) so soon ?" .. think his head just exploded. Just accept you lost and move on :)

[fenners66] 01/5/2020 14:41

Stopped quoting public spending stats (after just a couple of weeks) so soon ?

[wigwammer] 01/5/2020 14:25

Oh dear. It appears mister fenner is still upset. It's not so much that I'm a trader, but if I make 60%+ on an idea within a few weeks then I will consider taking profit. Mr fenner is more of a "long term quality investor" - and he'd rather make 60% over a 15 year period to prove the point. Unfortunately - making a profit where self professed intellectuals fail is never going to make you popular, but I'd rather have the profit anyway. atb :)

[meijiman] 01/5/2020 14:06

Exactly..folk are driven to drink....

[fenners66] 01/5/2020 13:56

jeffian - despite almost all of quoted companies refusing to forecast this years figures as they either have no clue , or know its so bad they do not want to tell ..... wigwammer still refuses to acknowledge reality as it does not fit with
his wish list for the trading position he's in.


to be fair wigwammer as you are a trader rather than a long term investor - I don't see the problem.

The shares are up you made a profit.
If there is a second wave of realisation that things are going to get bad - you can do it again, provided next time does not lead to bankruptcy.

As to figures ?

Oil around $20 a barrel and able to fall again when storage is full. Why - demand has dropped 15%.
Admiral paying back £25 to each motor insurance customer as they are not driving.
Air passengers down 97%
$43bn of now Junk status loans to US shale companies alone. How much bad debt was the 2008 crisis based on ?
US airlines asking for $ 20bn to save them
Virgin Atlantic possibly going bust.
Ryanair threatening 3000 job losses.
One fifth of all shops - thought now to be permanently closed.

Government debt rising towards £3tn = austerity 2 the real pain.

Coronavirus and lockdowns may return seasonally - no one will want to be risking owning a business that has to be shut down 3 months of the year.
Unemployment massive...... we know 25m + added in the US - you know US sneezes , we catch a cold.

2 years as a base case scenario - would be the best as that is a really fast roll out of a vaccine..... said a bloke on Bloomberg

"Cost of furloughing so far... circa £15bn." - so what its only just started.

The cost of supporting all the self-employed they have promised does not start to get paid yet and it will be back dated.
Total cost of furlough expected to be in excess of £40bn
Then there is £25k to every eligible business.
Not collecting business rates
Postponing personal sch E taxes a year....

etc
etc.

Germany economy -6% already and falling...
Italian and Spanish debt mountains
No tourists no hotels surviving.

What do you think happens in a recession? Let alone a depression ?

[garth] 01/5/2020 11:28

The UK government may just decide to change spots and double-down on the the investment already made by investing further in job creation and small business, pharma, bio, construction etc going forward.

That might help the V or at least ensure a a decent U.

G.

[wigwammer] 01/5/2020 11:21

"collapses, implosions, havoc, blowing things out the water"... we don't have a lot of detail, but evidently that doesn't stop people imparting visions of total economic annihilation. Some contrary stats: post 2008 economic collapse resulted in £450bn of QE and a peak PSBR of £180bn+. We recovered. Cost of furloughing so far... circa £15bn.

[jeffian] 01/5/2020 11:09

What numbers and detail would you like? Any forecasts you'd wish to share? (because nobody else has an effing clue!)

On the subject (of general economic damage, not MARS specifically) there was an interesting interview on business news this morning with the CEO of Heathrow airport. He said it would take 15 years to get back to the levels of traffic preceding the lockdown and cited tourists, students and freight as areas that would be impacted. The former will hit retail, hotels, restaurants/pubs, hospitality, universities/colleges etc and as for freight -
"33% of UK long-haul export goods by value travel through Heathrow. (That is goods travelling by air and by sea.) The CAA figures show Heathrow deals with 94% of the UK total air freight by value, and around 65% of the volume of UK air freight travels via Heathrow."

I cannot understand why the market seems to think this will be a V-shaped recovery and we will all be back to where we were before in no time, but that's just me.

[wigwammer] 01/5/2020 10:53

Jeffian - with respect... collapses, implosions, havoc, blowing things out the water... a lot of emotion and rhetoric, but a little light on relevant numbers and detail.

[waspfactory] 01/5/2020 10:47

We're at a tipping point, public support for the lockdown is hanging by a thread and the economy is in danger of crashing like never before. We need a plan to return to work, open up again and observe social distancing where possible. The virus is not going away, we have to manage it. The hospital beds are ready, 250 free beds in the covid wards in UHCW alone and Nightingale hospitals empty. The vulnerable need to continue with lockdown. Furlough scheme has been fantastic however it will be a monumental waste of public money if we don't kick start the economy immediately. The cure is rapidly becoming worse than the illness.

[john09] 01/5/2020 10:12

Looks good to me still this one

[dinvester] 30/4/2020 20:59

hxxps://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-businesses-wonder-if-they-can-survive-and-whether-its-worth-trying-11980868

[chinese investor] 30/4/2020 19:39

As we aren't going abroad in the foreseeable future supermarket beer sales will continue to be healthy !

[meijiman] 30/4/2020 18:55

It would look a bit odd if Spoons reopened and Marstons pubs stayed shut.

[jeffian] 30/4/2020 18:46

"Only a matter of time before the country is opened up now."

Not specific to this company/thread, but I am absolutely amazed that the market is so sanguine about the long-term damage this can have done to the economy. People seem to think that it's all going to go back to where it was before within months. There's going to be bankruptcies, unemployment and huge debt, never mind the potential macro-economic issues that could blow the world economy out of the water. Italian banking collapse? Eurozone implosion? Further pandemic sweeping through the growth economies of SE Asia (do you believe those Chinese figures)?

As far as MARS is concerned, there's no knowing what havoc a Quarter with no revenues will have done and as they keep saying that pubs/clubs/restaurants will be the last to reopen - and then with 'social distancing' regulations (how does that work in a pub?) - this year is a write-off. It might be OK for daytrading on short-term emotion, but I don't think we've begun to understand the worst.

[john09] 30/4/2020 18:21

Yep this will be straight out of the blocks gain tomorrow