Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[septimus quaid] 18/4/2020 12:06

Petition: Cut beer duty for at least 12 months, so pubs can survive after the covid virus.

[fenners66] 16/4/2020 23:57

From survey published in DM

"Four-fifths would feel unsafe going to a bar or restaurant if lockdown lifted now, and 62 per cent would feel unsafe going back to work"

[ny boy] 16/4/2020 18:38

Pubs & restaurants will be in phase 3 of unlock, the green light of the traffic light system, as lots of people in pubs & restaurants, the government will want to be pretty damn sure the virus has died out, in any event people will be nervous of seeing people in confined spaces pubs restaurants bars etc. Many will wait for feedback, any signs of new cases, back to square 1 again. This is all going to take time imo

Not buyer yet, sitting on the fence for a while.

[john09] 16/4/2020 18:31

I think its clear from updates that pubs will maybe open in June .

[septimus quaid] 16/4/2020 18:27

Mars, for what many portray as a complete basket case, seem fairly thin on short positions (circa 1%).

Maybe Mr Fearty Bottom is in town and they're frit of a takeover?

[john09] 14/4/2020 08:36

Well this is top of my leaderboard today so far

[wigwammer] 13/4/2020 19:22

Entirely depends on how long we are stuck in it for.

[jeffian] 13/4/2020 18:51

Let's face it, with very few exceptions we're all in a mess. I don't think the market has begun to grasp the potential damage to the economy. At the moment it is reacting as if the downturn is a temporary blip to be followed by a swift upturn but there are a lot of businesses, small and large, that aren't going to come out of this with consequences for employment, debt and tax receipts. I've been extremely lucky to have had some decisions taken for me this year (EIG, GNK and RPC) and I'm in no hurry, other than in small amounts, to back 'recovery' stocks yet.

[wigwammer] 13/4/2020 18:00

Fenner is right though - the retail part is facing uncertainty and it has debt. A powerful fundamental insight I'm sure :)

[jeffian] 13/4/2020 12:16

But it isn't just a retail business. Wetherspoons is a retail business. MARS has retail outlets (directly managed pubs) but it is also a property business (ownership and rental income), a manufacturer (brewing), a wholesaler and a distributor (warehousing and logistics).

[fenners66] 13/4/2020 12:09

Wigwammer - it was not clear that taking out half in the 40's meant - having sold or bought more.
As I said well done on the profit.

I look at the fundamentals not the day to day share price.
And fundamentally everything is uncertain for retail facing businesses such as this.

That said its not the lack of sales , its the lack of sales combined with large debt - we shall see if its recovered or not in a year or so.

[cokehookerscars] 13/4/2020 10:16

The only real question is whether there will be a further crash if the fight against Covid-19 doesn't follow the currently 'expected' pattern or does come back much harder at the end of the year (which will still be before any vaccine has been mass produced and applied).

[ny boy] 12/4/2020 10:40

I will buy in on the next pull back, 93% of the estate is Freehold!

[wigwammer] 10/4/2020 10:52

Fenner - to repeat (because you evidently don't listen that well) I have taken out half my position in the mid 40's with a near 100% return on those shares. That is not an option for you or anyone who acted on your posts at 25p. You suffer from confirmation bias. You like the Debs story because that is the one you know and it confirms your preconceived belief. Given mars is a pubco, I imagine EIG and Greene King are likely to be more relevant - but they are not mentioned because they don't confirm what you want to believe. I understand there are risks here - there is not a man, woman or child in the country who is not aware of the uncertainties around Covid - but repeatedly verbalising and acting on them regardless of price/sentiment is unlikely to prove a winning strategy. Atb

[archy147] 10/4/2020 09:39

So a 5% or 10% drop in sales is really bad, fair enough.

Are you saying this will be a permanent drop of 5% or 10%, so every year from now on?
And you don’t think the 60%+ drop in the share price adequately reflects this?

As wigwammer says, I don’t think you’re taking any account of the battering the share price has already had...

Fact is markets always over-react to bad news (or indeed good news), look at every crash in history, including the last one that resulted in austerity. Then MARS bottomed out at 59p in Nov 2008 before recovering to 132p 6 months later. Look at any share and what happened in 2008 and you will see a similar pattern

History tells us there is further recovery to be had again here, not just in MARS, across the board.

[fenners66] 10/4/2020 00:47

Similar point made on the NRR board.

"SpectoAcc
9 Apr '20 - 09:55 - 2467 of 2469

I don't personally think NRR going bust, if I'm correct in remembering that none of their debt is recourse.

I do see Covid-19 - even under favourable scenarios - accelerating all the trends we had before tho, eg less eating out, less retail, and coupled with a recession. Just can't see "crowds" being popular again near-term, whether in pubs or shopping centres.

That does't mean no pubs, no shops. But in a market where eg +1% retail sales is considered bad, and which is so operationally geared, eg -5% or -10% retail sales would be really bad.

Economic hit is the main thing - and perhaps whether you think the vast increase in govnt spending to get through Covid will inevitably lead to austerity.

Near term, it's uncertainty - who'd be making expansion plans in this economy?

And how much disposable income will there be when we're out of it?"

[fenners66] 10/4/2020 00:41

wigwammer - well done on your profit , banked or still in ?

Market prices can rise any time its supply and demand.

DEBS is a fair comparison .
It was a quoted , touted as profitable business , consumer facing, paying out a high dividend , with too much debt and retail premises in need of refurbishment, that has currently closed its retail premises and has very little revenue.

Change the product but that is much the same story as a large part of Marstons.

Do you believe then that the effects of CV19 will be over soon ?

I was looking at all the barriers erected in supermarkets to protect till staff etc.
Most of them look very professional - they are not temporary.

My guess is the retail world has changed - until we have all either caught it or been immunised vs 3 strains so far a lot of people will not want the risk.

Then there is the real reason the stock market is down and its not about the lives lost its about the livelihoods lost.
We are already in a recession and what happens in recessions to pubs ?

What happens to those in deep debt in a recession ?

[wigwammer] 09/4/2020 22:26

I was fortunate enough to buy mars near the lows, and have taken out half of what I purchased in the mid 40's. I understand there are risks, but I see little value in repetitive negative commentary that makes zero acknowledgment of the sentiment/valuation already reflected in the share price.

[archy147] 09/4/2020 20:53

What has changed?

Pubs are closed. They’ll be open again a few weeks/months.

This isn’t the high street, decimated by the likes of amazon. Comparison with Debenhams is irrelevant, unless you think Coronavirus has caused a long term structural change in people’s socialising habits? Out of interest, why would you think that?

At the end of the day it’s crashes like this that create the best opportunities for investors. Fill your boots guys (if you’re brave enough).

[wigwammer] 09/4/2020 18:58

"Everything has changed.." well the shares are up 60% since last time you said all this fenner. Anyone who acted on your rhetoric has missed out. Examples of highly indebted shares with weak environments that went on to multiply - Greene King, EIG, POG, AAZ, PHTM etc etc...

[cokehookerscars] 09/4/2020 17:25

Just because a stock halves in value doesn't mean it won't halve in value again !

[fenners66] 09/4/2020 17:24

A share price relative to the price it was is not valid as a measure of whether it is cheap - if everything has changed.

On the measure of its fallen therefore its cheap....
CLLN
IRV
DEBS

all recent examples.
DEBS back in administration just months since last time an apparently underlying profitable company with high debt.

The goalposts have moved.

The share price has reacted to that.

[jeffian] 09/4/2020 17:14

"Still guys this is trading at just 1/3 the value it was in Feb....

.....when it was trading at 2/3 the value it was in 2016!

[archy147] 09/4/2020 17:07

Still guys this is trading at just 1/3 the value it was in Feb, which

a) makes it one of the cheapest large conpany stocks out there
b) means a potential 200% return if/when business returns to normal

Thinking of topping up when the markets open again