Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[dinvester] 20/3/2020 23:58

Wigwammer. My point is there appears to be a presumption that certain government help offered is "no strings attached"
In reality much of what has been offered is REPAYABLE.
It is ultimately Debt.

[wigwammer] 20/3/2020 23:05

Happy to be downticked.. but is there an explanation? .. it's quite reassuring when people don't like what you say but are incapable of verbalising why :)

[wigwammer] 20/3/2020 22:56

Well.. capital spend will be cut to the bone. They aren't going to spend on inventory. The £250m wage bill has just been cut by up to 80%. The £50m dividend will be put on ice... they have free access to cheap debt...The main thing they have to cover is the interest payment, which if rolled up, will add 2.8% to the debt stack each year. Shock horror. On the other hand, if/when they get to the other side, there is 300%+to be made here as the valuation normalises. It's not rocket science and I suspect the shorts have an uncomfortable weekend ahead :)

[dinvester] 20/3/2020 20:07

Careful. I think that the government are not being clear enough about what needs repaying and who will need to repay it.
I have no doubt that RF would jump at the chance of taking any kind of support offered to keep his gravy train merrily chugging along. But ultimately will this just mean even more debt?

[john09] 20/3/2020 18:40

Stupid man

[meijiman] 20/3/2020 18:35

This a now a zombie company..the living dead

[john09] 20/3/2020 18:22

Great anouncement. I’m exporting Britain to bounce on Monday

[careful] 20/3/2020 17:54

Wages grant and other measures announced today will buy MARS time.

[dinvester] 20/3/2020 17:19

UDATE.
I see that just announced. Pubs to be ordered to close.

[dinvester] 20/3/2020 16:40

Septimus.
I don't think the government are guilt shaming.
Also I notice that Tim Martin claiming that there is little transition of the virus in pubs. How can he claim this as fact?
The press is turning against him and can quite easily whip up hatred of pubs chains.
Marstons likewise stance of keeping pubs open could turn out to be a bad move down the line.

[chinese investor] 20/3/2020 11:26

My thinking entirely john09 !

[john09] 20/3/2020 10:28

No the pub and inn trade is temporarily mothballed . Not destroyed

I bet worldwide bottled beer sales is set to be up 10 fold

[lord gnome] 20/3/2020 10:25

The counter to that is that the pub and inn trade is being totally destroyed.

[john09] 20/3/2020 10:23

I cant recall how much % income comes from sales to supermarkets but the supermarkets literally cannot get enough stock of bottled beers. They are filling them up every night and they are getting emptied every single day. Could go on for months,.,

[john09] 20/3/2020 09:02

Looks good again

[septimus quaid] 20/3/2020 07:47

Re pubs staying open, Tim Martin (Wetherspoons) on Bloomberg just now saying they're staying open at present.

I'll be in the pub myself later, the onus is really on the government to take affirmative action (not relying on haphazardly guilt-shaming people).

[deanowls] 20/3/2020 03:25

Double vodkas all round then

[essentialinvestor] 20/3/2020 00:05

Needs to be 70%, for the hospital grade stuff.

[jeffian] 19/3/2020 23:30

Sanitiser? What's wrong with alcohol?!

[dinvester] 19/3/2020 23:19

Andrew Carlill claims that Marstons pubs will remain OPEN???
Staff will no doubt use hand sanatiser and keep the bartops clean with a wipe now and then.

[threadworm] 19/3/2020 20:32

CV is definitely serious but it will pass.

Although confirmed cases are set to climb for a while, from an 'anxiety' point of view - market anxiety - I believe we're close to an inflexion point.

Sad as it seems, a peak in casualties (which we've not yet reached) is actually less of a problem for the market to deal with, than where we are NOW.

Like I said, the thinking within the market as whole is normally ahead of events.

Stocks in this sector will be volatile for a while, but in reality they may not be as far off the floor as many think.

Many will miss the floor, some will bottom fish a good low / entry point but even more will miss the meat of the correction proper, entirely.

It's the nature of the market......and indeed it is difficult to be contrary and brave when most are running. It's why most are not stock market millionaires.

When 5Live have had time to develop their own, menacing, booming 'CORONA' jingle, before inviting terrified listeners on to each comment on how they 'just don't know how they're going to cope staying in all day', you know you're close to an inflexion point.

Will MARS ever be over 30p again? YES - imo. But not if you listen to 95% of people at the moment. Need I say more?

Good luck, look out for each other and stay well.

[wigwammer] 19/3/2020 20:10

It also isn't clear yet to what extent there will be debt forgiveness. Presumably it depends on the willingness of the company to keep paying staff during the off period. Hence, it may be that as a company willing to support staff in their time of need, Marstons have to pay back very little of the debt.

[wigwammer] 19/3/2020 20:08

Good post, threadworm. And I believe you are right. The market is not going to wait to get past corona before repricing the value of stocks like Marstons. If we assume we add fully past it within 12 months, this will revert to £1. That's a 300% return in 12months. But as you suggest - that repricing is not going to happen overnight. It's going to happen as being gradually realise that there is going to be life after CV. Yes they may have to borrow money in the meantime, but I suspect it will be a small fraction of the £1.2bn they have comfortably sustained in normal times :)

[threadworm] 19/3/2020 19:28

Marstons will survive this.

As the company has stated, it is confident it will ride out difficulties surrounding Corona but is currently uncertain about how deeply the impact will be felt, as the situation surrounding government advice not to go out and socialise etc, unfolds.

I thought the recent update from MARS was very fair, realistic, concise and sober.

The situation is unsettling in the meantime to say the least, but amid the unknowns and anxiety-inducing media, what can we safely assume?

1) The peak of the virus WILL come and pass.

2) Green shoots and positive sounds ALREADY coming from China, an intensely populated country.

3) People will return, en masse, to their social habits and regular lifestyle, at the earliest possible opportunity. When cash flow returns, it will return swiftly.

4) There is a very strong package of support (15% GDP!) from the Government to support companies just like this......and the reassurance that more would be made available AS NECESSARY. The Chancellor could not have been more explicit in this.

I believe in the fullness of time, the impact of this virus on companies like MARS will be a shorter (albeit deep) cut that heals quicker than many might think.

The market does not need to wait all the while for a vaccine to be developed before a major correction; the increased flow of pints of beer will correlate strongly to the fall in confirmed cases.

We are not there yet, but that time will come....and remember the market is usually one step ahead.

Just my thoughts only. ADYOR.