Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[lindowcross] 20/12/2018 10:22

the share price is a buying opportunity

[janekane] 20/12/2018 08:56

This share price is a disgrace for a company of this size
tHe debt incurred by these equity swaps securitisation is killing us if this gets to 80p then the hostile bidders will move in sell all the assets and leave us with sweet Fu@@all
Get real Ralph stand down let someone with a plan to get us back on track and get shot of these foot irons draining us drŷ

[lindowcross] 19/12/2018 15:33

I've owned Marstons now for over a decade. Throughout that time posters have fretted over the debt, the smoking ban, pub closures, changes in drinking habits, the financial crisis, whether or not the company should still be brewing in so many locations and so on, yet the company ploughs on increasing turnover, making a profit and paying a generous dividend. I think it'll continue to do so, whatever challenges lie around the corner. So I'll hold, maybe even buy a few more.

[septimus quaid] 17/12/2018 10:56

fair enough, although the shorter has other costs on top: dividend payment to lender, dealing spread, dealing costs

[cc2014] 17/12/2018 08:51

SQ. You said: There's no way that just shorting something can be a walk in the park. Shorting isn't "free", I heard recently that it costs 30% per annum to maintain a short.


Current financing rates for going short are around 2.5%.
Evidence here:

In my experience when trying to short HTB stocks say you put it, most of the time brokers will simply refuse. Of course how big a line you swing and how much money you dangle at them for doing so will influence the outcome.

[spacecake] 17/12/2018 08:26

Retailers retreating after online retailer ASOS trading statement.

[septimus quaid] 16/12/2018 11:27

...if a shorter is betting on a dividend cut, and this comes good, then they will benefit on two fronts:

reduced dividend payments to the lender
likely shareprice fall

[septimus quaid] 16/12/2018 10:11

I found this piece on Quora, seems that there are large variations in the net cost of shorting an individual stock (dealing, interest rates, negative-rebates, dividends, etc).

Although I imagine for an easily tradeable stock like Marstons, net costs would be at the lower end of the examples used.

The fees are either ETB (Easy to borrow) or HTB (Hard to borrow). There aren't any additional fees to use ETB stock (Well known stocks that most people own and are typically sold short) outside of margin interest - typically, but this can change from broker to broker. So if margin interest is 5% for example it's a simple annual interest calculation. For example, if you had $5k on margin for 1 week at 5% interest the calculation would be: $5,000 x 5% = $250 / 360 X 7 days or $4.86. The brokerage industry uses 360 days, not 365. You would then add in your commission expenses typically charged to buy or sell stock and sometimes a margin requirement fee, etc.

When trading HTB stock, brokers will charge as high as 20% interest (also called negative rebate, like what you see on your page) typically, so in this instance you would add 20% to the 5% number and calculate at 25%. I've heard of HTB fees being as high as 250–300% so definitely call and ask as these aren't always published or found easily, but IB does a great job of putting them right on the screen.

[exel] 16/12/2018 09:50

So, about 2% of MARS has been short sold? Is that such a big deal? Most adverts for providers of CFDs and similar products warn that 70% of their users of lose money. Guessing many may have done better in the current quarter? But markets will over-react in both directions, and can flip very quickly.

[ianian4] 15/12/2018 16:06

Septimus, There are many risks but it must pay off otherwise they would not have billions shorted.. Not sure how much the fee is, it will be confidential, but it will be a lot less that 30% per annum, more likely 2 to 5%. They will have to pay dividends however generally the share price falls by the dividend amount so that may not cost anything if the stock is bought back at a reduced price reflecting that.
The skill is in buying and selling continually to manipulate the price and keep it going down with the minimum sales and likewise buying back just enough gradually to keep the price down.

[septimus quaid] 15/12/2018 11:27

There's no way that just shorting something can be a walk in the park. Shorting isn't "free", I heard recently that it costs 30% per annum to maintain a short. All the time the shorter is running a considerable risk (e.g., a short squeeze in the event of a takeover approach, simply better company news or even a share suspension).

In the meantime, the lender of the stock collects a nice fat fee.

[janekane] 15/12/2018 09:21

Short update
12.6 million shares shorted at this time

[muffinhead] 14/12/2018 16:12

There will be piles epidemic in the next 10 years

[llef] 14/12/2018 11:39

uber eats will start delivering starbucks coffees in usa next year too..

Starbucks lowered its long-term earnings forecast at an investor meeting Thursday.
The company is partnering with Uber Eats to bring delivery to about a quarter of its U.S.-based, company-owned stores by the end of the second quarter.

[spacecake] 14/12/2018 10:52

Our high street has gone from being riddled with estate agents to coffee bars and pizza takeaways. Small food shops replaced with Tesco and Sainsbury mini markets, no butchers, fresh fish, or veg shops, hardware etc anymore. One of two bars closed, now again someone has a punt then it goes bust again.

I guess it's just evolution of the high street - what next coffee deliveries, it already happens in abu dhabi

[mr_spock] 14/12/2018 09:42

I think the difference between the retail/restaurant market and pubs and bars is that the number of pubs/bars has been falling for some time now, thus restricting capacity. General opinion is that there are too many restaurants, hence they are suffering. And the move online is hurting those retailers that don't have a good online presence.
MARS will suffer like anyone if there is a downturn but think they will do better than pure retailers and restaurants.

[spacecake] 14/12/2018 09:36

Because you can't buy a pint, cosy atmosphere and entertainment online?

They will be a boost to sales in December as the christmas parties get going, but January and February are not so good, back to the cosy armchair at home with Marstons bottles at a fraction of a pint in a bar.

Anyway, I had a recent bad experience at a pitcher and piano, ordered a half, got a pint then after correcting that they still charged me for a pint and give the change from a fiver when I had give them a tenner which they immediately corrected, this was in the afternoon when the place was only half full.

[jeffian] 14/12/2018 08:43

"Looking at the wider retail environment shops are struggling, shopping centre owners are struggling, why should pubs and bars be any different."

Because you can't buy a pint, cosy atmosphere and entertainment online?

[janekane] 14/12/2018 07:03

We have lots of land assets that at this time are sitting doing nothing
We could maximise these assets with planning applications for much needed homes
These actions could be a first step in reducing our debt
It's a fact the City are not happy with our debt
The share price reflects there concerns these current trading sub £1 could go even lower
They realise the dramatic effect a downturn will have on our ability to trade out of debt
RF needs to change direction or a preditor will take him out if we go lower than 80p
Asset strippers could make a fortune as us the minions get F-c-ed without the decency of a kiss before hand

[ianian4] 13/12/2018 17:44

There are potential problems with debt equity swaps, but are we looking at a downturn in revenue? That is guesswork, casual dining and drinking are cheap expenditures compared to vehicle company purchases and home makeovers. If the country is hit whatever, Brexit offers, this will not be the first to feel the draft.

[pherrom] 13/12/2018 17:36

The proposed final dividend of 4.8 pence per share provides a total dividend for the year of 7.5 pence per share. Dividend cover is 1.9 times and our dividend policy remains to target progressive increases in the dividend at a cover of around 2 times in the medium term.
(From the prelims.)

[exel] 13/12/2018 16:40

So, up very slightly on the day, bearing in mind this is now ex div by 4.8p. Next staging post being AGM update in jan19. I have 21/1/19 but will have to check that.

[quepassa] 13/12/2018 15:25

re 1138,

that's why my money is on a major equity raising in the ntdf. most likely a rights issue.

there's a lot more pain to come in my view in this sector.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP