Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[salchow] 25/7/2018 10:15

Quite right Jeffian. This is not going up but with a 7.8% dividend why would you care.

[jeffian] 25/7/2018 09:55

I'm not surprised. They just trundle along like an oil tanker, slow to react to anything. I continue to hold as I'm a retired old git living off my dividends and not so interested in capital growth these days. I never expect MARS to go anywhere fast but I do expect them to go on paying the divi and they do have the security of a solid asset base.

[tim 3] 25/7/2018 09:48

Agree, am disappointed expected better,thought the good weather and world cup would have produced bigger improvements.

[7ran5ac710n] 25/7/2018 09:26

Top up time!

[llef] 25/7/2018 08:52

Are the reported like-for-like sales nos inflation adjusted - or just nominal nos?

If just nominal, then like-for-like sales up 0.3% is pretty pathetic in my view.

[careful] 25/7/2018 08:34

They guide that underlying earning for the year will be as expected.
the word 'underlying' can be scary sometimes.
So often companies can make a loss with 'underlying' earnings good.

They are still bravely expanding restaurants when so many are struggling and closing.
I hope they are investing wisely and know what they are doing.
We shall get news on the debt situation at the time of the final results.

still holding here because they are so cheap.
if things go well we could see 150p here over the next 2 years.

[quady] 25/7/2018 08:25

Hi ChineseInvestor

How much profit does Marstons make per bottle of supermarket beer sold?

Also, how much do you think profit will be down in 2018 compared to 2017? 40%?

[chinese investor] 25/7/2018 08:16

Bottles of beer have been flying off the supermarket shelves !

[baticle] 25/7/2018 08:15

Decent Update and expected Market reaction

[chinese investor] 25/7/2018 08:05

Good Start !

[the deacon] 25/7/2018 08:02

Q3 Trading Update – 42wks to 21 July 2018:Marston's has this morning updated on trading for its Q3, being the 42wks to 21 July 2018 and our comments are set out below:Trading – Overall:• Marston's reassures that trading is in line with expectations.• The implication is that forecasts need not be adjusted and that the dividend, where the group remains committed to a progressive policy, will be raised for the full year.• Total LfL sales across the group are now up 0.3% versus flat at the half year.• The last 16wks are +0.9%. This includes benefits recently from the World Cup and the weather but it also includes April, which was a tough month• The last 12wks are up around 2%• Leased pubs are up around 2% in terms of LfL EBITDA contribution and all divisions have improved trading Q on Q• No further news on margin. Earlier comments had margins down around 50bps for the full yearTrading – Destination & Premium:• Total managed sales, as mentioned above, are now +0.3%. LfL sales were up by 0.9% in the last 16wks• Destination & Premium is now down 1.5% (to w42) versus down 1.8% at the half year• The World Cup has been an overall positive but its impact has been polarising. Wet led pubs performed more strongly than hoped whilst food led units found the going difficult.• The 6 England games amount to a week's trade.• Drink sales in destination pubs have been strong. Food is less good.Trading – Taverns:• Taverns are +3.8%, having been +2.9% at H1. The last 12wks are up by around 5.0%• Comps from Q3 last year were not easy. They become considerably less challenging in Q4 (the quarter to end-Sept)Trading – Leased Pubs:• Leased income is up by 2% LfLTrading – Beer Company:• Marston's beer company has performed strongly. Driven by the continued integration of the Charles Wells Brewing company, sales are up 61% compared with +79% at the time of the H1 statement.• The underlying business is in growth. Beer sales have benefited from both the World Cup and from the continuing warm weather• Marston's says 'we continue to realise benefits from the acquisition of Charles Wells Brewing and Beer Business. Our portfolio, which includes an outstanding range of premium ales, World Lagers and Craft Beers, increased market share.'Balance Sheet, Cash Flow & Debt:• The group does not comment on debt• Marston's reports 'we remain on track to meet our openings growth targets for 15 pub restaurants and bars, and six lodges, in the current financial year.'Conclusion & Outlook:• Marston's has reassured that trading is in line.• Comps are somewhat softer in Q4 (to September) and the warm weather has continued for at least the first 3wks of the group's final quarter• Many observers will conclude from this that the final dividend will be increased with CEO Ralph Findlay commenting 'we are encouraged by our stronger trading performance in the second half-year, including the benefit of recent good weather and the impact of the World Cup in our Taverns estate and in Marston's Beer Company.'• Mr Findlay reports 'we have a strong pipeline of sites which will contribute to continued growth in pubs, and see further opportunity in brewing following the acquisition and successful integration of Charles Wells Brewing and Beer business in 2017.'• The group's CEO concludes 'our strategic objectives and progressive dividend policy remain appropriate for current market conditions and we remain confident of delivering underlying earnings in line with expectations for the full year.'Langton Comment:• Marston's has confirmed that trading is in line with expectations.• The World Cup and the warm weather have been, overall, helpful.• But it is clear that the balanced model has smoothed trading for Marston's as food has been tough and wet sales have been strong.• Food led operators could be gnashing their teeth and it will be interesting to see what Restaurant Group tells investors in a month's time. The latter will be impacted by the hot weather, reduced retail footfall, delayed holiday departures at its travel hubs because of the World Cup and the World Cup itself.• Wet led operators such as Stonegate will be performing strongly. Stonegate has been rumoured to be considering an IPO but next year it will find 2018 comps hard to beat.• Marston's shares trade on a PER of little more than 7x with a yield of nearly 8%. The shares appear cheap as the group, which has an attractive, well-managed and well-maintained estate of largely freehold properties, is selling product that the consumer would like to buy at a price they are prepared to pay.• Lodges, craft brewing and food (at least in the longer term) remain growth areas and Marston's is well-placed to grow and to create further value for its shareholders.

[rcturner2] 25/7/2018 08:01

I've sold out. Terrible figures IMHO.

[the deacon] 25/7/2018 08:01

Q3 Trading Update – 42wks to 21 July 2018:Marston's has this morning updated on trading for its Q3, being the 42wks to 21 July 2018 and our comments are set out below:Trading – Overall:• Marston's reassures that trading is in line with expectations.• The implication is that forecasts need not be adjusted and that the dividend, where the group remains committed to a progressive policy, will be raised for the full year.• Total LfL sales across the group are now up 0.3% versus flat at the half year.• The last 16wks are +0.9%. This includes benefits recently from the World Cup and the weather but it also includes April, which was a tough month• The last 12wks are up around 2%• Leased pubs are up around 2% in terms of LfL EBITDA contribution and all divisions have improved trading Q on Q• No further news on margin. Earlier comments had margins down around 50bps for the full yearTrading – Destination & Premium:• Total managed sales, as mentioned above, are now +0.3%. LfL sales were up by 0.9% in the last 16wks• Destination & Premium is now down 1.5% (to w42) versus down 1.8% at the half year• The World Cup has been an overall positive but its impact has been polarising. Wet led pubs performed more strongly than hoped whilst food led units found the going difficult.• The 6 England games amount to a week's trade.• Drink sales in destination pubs have been strong. Food is less good.Trading – Taverns:• Taverns are +3.8%, having been +2.9% at H1. The last 12wks are up by around 5.0%• Comps from Q3 last year were not easy. They become considerably less challenging in Q4 (the quarter to end-Sept)Trading – Leased Pubs:• Leased income is up by 2% LfLTrading – Beer Company:• Marston's beer company has performed strongly. Driven by the continued integration of the Charles Wells Brewing company, sales are up 61% compared with +79% at the time of the H1 statement.• The underlying business is in growth. Beer sales have benefited from both the World Cup and from the continuing warm weather• Marston's says 'we continue to realise benefits from the acquisition of Charles Wells Brewing and Beer Business. Our portfolio, which includes an outstanding range of premium ales, World Lagers and Craft Beers, increased market share.'Balance Sheet, Cash Flow & Debt:• The group does not comment on debt• Marston's reports 'we remain on track to meet our openings growth targets for 15 pub restaurants and bars, and six lodges, in the current financial year.'Conclusion & Outlook:• Marston's has reassured that trading is in line.• Comps are somewhat softer in Q4 (to September) and the warm weather has continued for at least the first 3wks of the group's final quarter• Many observers will conclude from this that the final dividend will be increased with CEO Ralph Findlay commenting 'we are encouraged by our stronger trading performance in the second half-year, including the benefit of recent good weather and the impact of the World Cup in our Taverns estate and in Marston's Beer Company.'• Mr Findlay reports 'we have a strong pipeline of sites which will contribute to continued growth in pubs, and see further opportunity in brewing following the acquisition and successful integration of Charles Wells Brewing and Beer business in 2017.'• The group's CEO concludes 'our strategic objectives and progressive dividend policy remain appropriate for current market conditions and we remain confident of delivering underlying earnings in line with expectations for the full year.'Langton Comment:• Marston's has confirmed that trading is in line with expectations.• The World Cup and the warm weather have been, overall, helpful.• But it is clear that the balanced model has smoothed trading for Marston's as food has been tough and wet sales have been strong.• Food led operators could be gnashing their teeth and it will be interesting to see what Restaurant Group tells investors in a month's time. The latter will be impacted by the hot weather, reduced retail footfall, delayed holiday departures at its travel hubs because of the World Cup and the World Cup itself.• Wet led operators such as Stonegate will be performing strongly. Stonegate has been rumoured to be considering an IPO but next year it will find 2018 comps hard to beat.• Marston's shares trade on a PER of little more than 7x with a yield of nearly 8%. The shares appear cheap as the group, which has an attractive, well-managed and well-maintained estate of largely freehold properties, is selling product that the consumer would like to buy at a price they are prepared to pay.• Lodges, craft brewing and food (at least in the longer term) remain growth areas and Marston's is well-placed to grow and to create further value for its shareholders.

[quady] 25/7/2018 07:57

Seems 'in line' with my expectations.
Premium/destination now coming into softer comparatives which will be interesting. Big suprise for me is the impact of new sites on sales.
Beer Company growth now turning organic with Charles Wells over 12 months ago now - hence growth dropping for the 42 week period dropping to 61% from 79% at the half year. Again will be interesting in future updates.
Taverns stronger than I expected which is a relief.
Charles Wells hopefully provide savings next FY, it's made the group bigger and added capacity, but will be difficult to clearly show eps growth due to it.
Progressive divi reaffirmed. 4.8p for final divi?

[quady] 25/7/2018 07:49

Marston’s PLC “the Group” issues the following Trading Update for the 42 weeks to 21 July 2018.
Trading
Trading in the second half year to date has been good overall, helped by recent good weather and
the World Cup. As in previous years, our wet-led pubs, leased estate and brewing business benefited
significantly from the World Cup and, despite the negative impact on food-led pubs the tournament
was positive for the Group.
This improvement, after a first half-year affected by poor weather, means that we have achieved
encouraging sales growth in both our pub and beer businesses in the 42 week period to date, and
we expect to deliver underlying earnings in line with expectations for the full year.
Total managed and franchised pub sales were up 5.2% in the 42 week period, including like-for-like
sales growth of 0.3% and the contribution from our pub expansion programme. In the most recent
16 weeks, like-for-like sales were up 0.9%, helped by good weather and the football, but with some
offset from poor weather in April. Post April, overall like-for-like sales growth over the last 12 weeks
has been 2.0% with the Destination and Premium performance continuing to improve as well as
weather benefiting Taverns.
In Destination and Premium, like-for-like sales for the 42 week period were 1.5% behind last year,
an improvement on the first half-year, with like-for-like sales down 1.2% in the last 16 weeks despite
the negative impact from the World Cup. We continue to remain disciplined in terms of pricing,
discounting and promotion, with operating margin only slightly below last year and in line with our
expectations.
In Taverns, managed and franchised like-for-like sales for the 42 week period were 3.8% ahead of
last year, including growth of 5.0% in the last 16 weeks. Most of our pubs have attractive outside
areas allowing our customers to enjoy the good weather, and we created a brilliant World Cup
atmosphere in many, building on the demand for experiences and the fact that pubs are the ‘next
best thing’ to live football. Leased profits for the 42 week period are estimated to be 2% ahead of
last year.
Marston’s Beer Company achieved strong growth, including total volumes up around 61% in the 42
week period with good growth in the underlying business. We continue to realise benefits from the
acquisition of Charles Wells Brewing and Beer Business. Our portfolio, which includes an
outstanding range of premium ales, World Lagers and Craft Beers, increased market share.
We remain on track to meet our openings growth targets for 15 pub restaurants and bars, and six
lodges, in the current financial year.
Commenting, Ralph Findlay, Chief Executive Officer, said:
“We are encouraged by our stronger trading performance in the second half-year, including the
benefit of recent good weather and the impact of the World Cup in our Taverns estate and in
Marston’s Beer Company.
“We have a strong pipeline of sites which will contribute to continued growth in pubs, and see further
opportunity in brewing following the acquisition and successful integration of Charles Wells Brewing
and Beer business in 2017. Our strategic objectives and progressive dividend policy remain
appropriate for current market conditions and we remain confident of delivering underlying earnings in line with expectations for the full year.”

[7ran5ac710n] 25/7/2018 07:25

Didn't know "the fact that pubs are the 'next best thing' to live football" - at least some useful information from the update.

[spacecake] 25/7/2018 07:15

42 week LFL sales growth of 0.3% and underlying earnings "in line" for the year, seem to have got over the bad winter weather only to be replaced with bad hot weather in the summer for food led pubs.

Just seems incapable of coping with the changing seasonal weather.

[exel] 24/7/2018 16:20

10 minutes to remember that a MARS non-exec's wife bought 100k of these a few weeks back. Tomorrow's update should be informative! Good luck all.

[the deacon] 24/7/2018 08:11

Fullers statement this AM:• Fuller's AGM statement: Group says 'the Company has made a good start to the new financial year with like for like sales in our Managed Pubs and Hotels rising 4.0%, particularly pleasing against a strong comparative of 6.6% for the same period in the prior year. Like for like profits in our Tenanted Inns were up 4% and total beer and cider volumes in The Fuller's Beer Company were flat.'• FSTA CEO Simon Emeny comments 'our core business has performed well, with the prolonged summer weather benefiting our pubs with outside space and our latest acquisitions are bedding in well and performing to plan.• FSTA says 'although we have undoubtedly benefited from the feel-good factor of England's World Cup performance and good summer weather, it is important to remember that the underlying economic and political situation, particularly the UK's position with regards to Europe, creates uncertainty and it is difficult to predict the nature of any potential impact on the sector.'

[ny boy] 23/7/2018 14:18

Expecting at least 110-120p after the trading statement

[chrisdgb] 23/7/2018 10:56

You would hope that trading has simply been amazing, let us hope that comes through in the statement..

[poseidon adventure] 23/7/2018 10:36

My local is a Marstons pub and it has never been so popular.