Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[1aws] 26/4/2011 10:04

Update on chart Dean. EMA20 has crosssed EMA50 and is within 0.2p of EMA200. EMA50 is only a couple of days away from crossing EMA200 (Golden cross). Hope this keeps up.

[deanforester] 21/4/2011 23:00

It does indeed. In my innocence I assumed that an EMA200 was always 200 days.

As I bought in February at about 100p, I'm quite happy with the way things are going.

[1aws] 21/4/2011 20:17

Dean - The chart above is a weekly chart, the 200 is therefore 200 weeks or 4 years. I was referring to the 20, 50 and 200 day EMAs. Sorry for any confusion.

Hope this helps.

[deanforester] 21/4/2011 17:33

Not if the chart above is anything to go by. The EMA200 is way above the Bollinger bands.

[1aws] 21/4/2011 11:42

Am I correct in spotting that the ema20 has crossed the ema50 today and is close to crossing the ema200. I believe the crossing of the ema200 by the ema50 is called a golden cross if both have positive gradients at the time. The last time I saw this with Mars was way back in October last year when share price was about 95p - it went on to rise with a small pullback to 117p. Could this, with better weather - royal weddings etc, be the start of a climb to 130p?

[diku] 20/4/2011 22:33

broker comment from yesterday...

19-Apr-11 Marston's MARS Matrix Group Buy 103.90p 114.00p - Upgrade

[spacecake] 20/4/2011 14:20

All this hot weather will have the ale drinkers out in the pub and garden. Add in the bank hols and "the wedding", it should be a bit of a bumper few weeks for the brewers and publicans.

[diku] 20/4/2011 10:24

Party time next week with the Royal Wedding...plenty of food & booze!...

[hyden] 15/4/2011 14:13

Agreed. I'll be more comfortable once we reach 106p :-)

[brownie69] 15/4/2011 14:10

Nice move today, interesting to see if it can hold above the 100p.

[wskill] 15/4/2011 14:07

Back to 115p then now we have had the dip for the spivs to fill their boots by shorting.

[diku] 11/4/2011 20:30

This was one of the 6 stocks for the summer months from the media..

Marstons
Share price: 97p

A natural benefactor of the longer, lighter summer evenings are the nation's watering holes. The two four-day weekends we're due this month thanks to the royal wedding and Easter plus the May and August Bank Holidays are sure to prove a pull for the pub industry.

Pub companies are drawing revenues from sale of food,
providing a boost to balance sheets. Marstons has also announced plans to push this revenue stream further and to focus on being a family destination.

Marstons has had a difficult time so far this year, losing nearly 20pc of its share-price value, but Mr Raynor said the company was a buy due to its attractive yield.

He said: "This is a higher-risk recovery stock with an attractive yield, which has been swimming against the tide of economic and sector concerns. Recent weakness has seen the share price fall but there is also potential growth on offer. It is high risk, but the potential rewards are worth the risk."

Barclays Stockbrokers tips pub companies Green King and Whitbread.

BUY: 8, HOLD: 9, SELL: 2

[diku] 28/3/2011 12:30

Good on you & MARS shareholders...

[bigbertie] 28/3/2011 11:58

well I've just bought in, and I bought a bottle of Jennings Cumberland Ale to give the shares a boost cheers

[diku] 26/3/2011 11:17

Yet another Director's spouse buys shares...

[gbb483] 23/3/2011 17:19

Yes, more of their customers would be able to come back for more than one visit.

[milacs] 23/3/2011 10:59

Appears likely that the 80 mg of alcohol per 100 ml will be reduced to 50.

Now that would be excellent news for the pub/restaurant business.

M

[diku] 23/3/2011 10:53

I would rather see supermakets pay a higher tax levy on booze sales...

[milacs] 23/3/2011 09:11

Surely you are not expecting a reduction in excise duty on alcohol.

M

[diku] 23/3/2011 08:52

Hope there is something in the budget for the pubcos/restaurants with 2012 just round the corner...

[rmillaree] 19/3/2011 10:06

I guess the best judge of how the company is expecting to do is to look at the current broker forecasts as to some extent these should be guided by what teh company is saying.

These have EPS of 10.66p this year (80 million pre-tax profit)
and 11.7p next year (88 million pre-tax)
So everything look pretty healthy at present although these numbers will be revised as time goes on so i always keep an eye on where the trend in forecats is going.
At present the trend in revisions has been slightly up over the last 3 months.

I will be more than happy as long as the company is close to these numbers as it will put the company back on a decent footing after a poor couple of years.
Perhaps Mr Market may even see this as a growth share again and give the share price a re-rating to reflect this.

Ideally long term a managed opening of new mega pubs disposal of non performing ones and an ability to make some inroads into the debt mountain at some stage is all we need.Although i would expect finance costs and debt to be rising short term hopefully the trend will reverse at some future stage and this should help boost the EPS and de-risk the business model a little.

Finally it is particularly pleasing to see that the pub company LFL's profit forecasts have turned postive after some serious declines over the last few years - well done management as far as this is concerned.

[cathian] 18/3/2011 18:36

Jeffian - Many thanks for your lucid summary As the Olympics are not going to have any affect on turnover this financial year, do you think, with the benefit of your previous experience, it likely that the planned new openings will have any meaningful beneficial impact on the results for 2011 or is that too short a timescale. Looking at the overall position, I suppose much will depend upon whether Marstons is affected to any significant extent by a general reduction in consumer spending. No doubt, the forthcoming budget will also provide some pointers about the way the economy is going and whether there is likely to be any further increases in duty for the drinks industry to contend with.. The Chief Executive refers in the trading update to a robust and encouraging performance, but in an uncertain economic climate, which leaves me feeling a little cautious for now but hopefully the interims will provide better guidance. And I have noted your observation that Marstons is not a share likely to set the world alight in the short term but a decent yield and the prospect of some capital growth on top are fine for me.

[jeffian] 18/3/2011 17:28

I think the dividend's safe enough (there'll be hell to pay if it isn't as they've only recently 'rebased' - i.e. cut! - it) but you probably won't see any growth in it (the divi) for a while as any increase in eps is likely to be used to increase dividend cover to a targeted 2x.

("Dividend cover at the year end is 1.7 times (2009: 1.6 times).

The Board's policy remains to target a dividend cover of around two times over the medium term although the level of cover in any one year may vary.")

I don't think MARS will set the world alight in the short term but, like you, I hold as it's better than money in the bank with the prospect of some capital growth on top.

[cathian] 18/3/2011 16:55

Jeffian Well spotted. I sent my first draft in error but I think the essense is the same and we will know more when the figures appear in May. If the dividend is maintained and the encouraging performance the Chief Executive refers to in the trading update has continued, I for one would be quite happy. As diku mentioned above, there has also been buying of the shares in meanful amounts by the spouse of one of the Directors. I read this as an added sign of confidence. Do you agree or have I overlooked something? Actually, its the interim figures in May with the finals in October.