Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 18/3/2011 12:17

Only very recently Director's spouse buys 2 lots of 100K shares at higher price then today...obviously this was before the Japan crisis & trading update..

[timbo003] 16/3/2011 19:30

druinsky

You have been drinking too much Marstons Pedigree me thinks, I challenge you to come back here when we are trading at over a quid and apologise, if they get to 65p, I will do the same.

[druinsky] 16/3/2011 19:14

ill be bagging someof these at 65p i recon

[diku] 16/3/2011 15:40

Anybody not think the new build programme is being timed perfectly with the feel good factor of 2012 Olympics not far off...leisure sector should benefit the most having lagged behind...

[jazza] 16/3/2011 12:59

It pays to read the facts rather than the "news"..figures for 3months to Jan 2011.


The jobs data showed that number of people in work increased by 32,000 to 29.16 million, the highest figure since last autumn.

Local government employment fell by 24,000, central government by 9,000 and Civil Service by 8,000, while employment in private firms increased by 77,000 to almost 23 million.

[milacs] 16/3/2011 12:52

I think all sectors of the economy will be hit hard by upcoming layoffs. In addition peoples standard of living is set to reduce significantly.

The pub/restaurant sector will not be immune to these factors and I would be wary about putting my hard earned cash into such investments.

M

[fangorn2] 16/3/2011 12:27

I'm certainly tempted to pick some more up if this drifts lower :)

[jeffian] 16/3/2011 11:01

I was in the pubs business for years, and it rarely is in my experience. There have certainly been changes in fashion which have hit certain types of pubs and generated the 'pub closure' headlines (e.g. country pubs (drink/drive), wet-led 'boozers' etc) but those that have embraced social changes (more/better food, smoke-free, female-friendly etc.) have done well and MARS provide an excellent example of this with their new-build 'Pub Restaurants'. I think the explanation is that, as in the retail sector 'cheap' stores such as Primark and New Look have often actually thrived in recession as shoppers trade down, so pubs have fulfilled a need for a cost-effective 'night out' whilst more upmarket restaurants and clubs have suffered. However bad things get, people have to have some R&R and although going to the pub is certainly 'discretionary' spending, in my experience it's one of the last to get cut rather than the first!

[fangorn2] 16/3/2011 10:42

I have to say I am surprised pub spending isn't being hit as expected. What are people cutting down on then to ensure they still have disposable income to spend in pubs...But a welcome trading statement that's for sure.

[timbo003] 16/3/2011 08:44

A reassuring trading statement today, I'm surprised at the market reaction, I would have though that it would have added a few pence to the share price.

[deanforester] 03/3/2011 17:38

That long-term chart looks like a perfect head and shoulders to me.

Trouble is, it should be an inverted one to do any good.

[cathian] 03/3/2011 17:36

If it is all doom and gloom, why did Derek Andrew's wife purchase another 100,000 shares recently? £100,000 is not an insignificant sum to invest. Also is there any possibility of freehold property being used to raise capital by way of sale and leaseback?

[miikke] 03/3/2011 16:40

This kind of fall happened to Barratt Homes it then rose like a phoenix when loads of private investors bailed out- will it happen here? Who knows but anything is possible in this market!

[essentialinvestor] 03/3/2011 16:38

Many UK consumer stocks now being hit hard, MKS, Next, WTB yesterday, it looks to be a growing list.

[farnesbarnes] 03/3/2011 16:32

When it failed to get through 105, that was the time to bail. Classic H&S.

[wskill] 03/3/2011 16:11

Never thought we would see these levels again.

[rmillaree] 28/2/2011 12:34

re the loan notes.
I have had a response from the company as follows.

1.We have guided the market that the overall interest charge is likely to increase by circa £3m in 2013 as a consequence of the step-up in 2013. This is incorporated into most analysts models. As an aside you should note that in the past two years or interest income has been negligible. We would expect by 2013 interest rates and subsequently interest income to be higher to mitigate some of this increase

2.We have no obligation to pay down before the principle ends – we can continue to pay as per the original repayment profile.

3.There are no adverse effects on the company financially for not negotiating before 2012 – these were simply expected maturity dates. The legal maturity is the key relevant date. Clearly, if an appropriate and more financially beneficial alternative arises, we would consider this.

A graph of our amortization profile is included in the appendices of our preliminary results presentation, which may provide you with further guidance on this matter.

[phoenix knight] 26/2/2011 20:28

You will see that Derek Andrew's wife purchased another 100,000. Takes her to 1,096,169.

[milacs] 26/2/2011 10:36

Don't particularly like the head and shoulders formation. If the price follows the script it should bottom out round about 85p.

I am reminded Goldman Sachs had a sell recommendation on 26 Jan with 81p as a goal.

M

[jeffian] 25/2/2011 23:30

blobby,
We've done the small print to death so I promise I'll shut up after this, but I think one also needs to stand back and look at the bigger picture in these circumstances. Jaknife's caution was around the issue that "debt is a hurdle to renegotiate" and that, without that, MARS face an increased interest bill of £5.25m pa. My thoughts go along these lines -
1) the vast majority of MARS' debt is in the form of securitised bonds which mature between 2020 and 2035.
2) Some of the variable rate bonds have interest escalators which kick in during 2012. MARS have indicated they "expect" to refinance these in 2012, but there is no obligation on them to refinance at this time, so it is not much of a "hurdle" and the banks have no particular hold over them.
3) If the 3 bonds escalating in 2012 are not refinanced, the average interest rate across the 3, involving £491m, will rocket to an average..........2.08% (Edit: Subject to prevailing LIBOR rates)
4) MARS claim to have 'fixed' their floating rate bonds via swaps for the next 7 years.
5) MARS claim that from August 2010 the blended cost of debt for the Group will marginally increase to 6.9%.

Do you think that MARS are going to change half their long-term securitised debt for short-term bank debt? Do you think that their interest bill in 2012 is going to increase by c.£5m?
No, nor do I.

[blobby] 25/2/2011 15:35

JakNife, thanks for all your posts on this and your expert views. It has been great to have some issues highlighted that I may not otherwise have considered.

I'm hoping that Marstons have been around long enough to know what is expected from them from the banks and perhaps a trip around the premises with their bank managers and a few glasses of Pedigree will help oil the wheels. My experience of companies I've had shares in is that they usually get stuffed by their banks with a big fee even if they just renew on similar terms. (e.g. ZTR which I hold)