Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[fangorn2] 22/2/2011 19:55

Er no Jeffian, I'm actually looking at the big picture, particularly thinking about Consumer debt(ie household debt of 1 trillion pounds.) and how the servicing of this, post all the tax hikes/inflation adjusted prices directly impacts on their disposable income - you know, what they have to spend in pubs!

Bank debt is but one part of the equation. Household debt is the other. And we all know people are being squeezed. So household PDI down - likely to have a negative impact on pub spending, preferring the cheaper alternative ,namely buying at supermarkets and having people around, rather than going to the pub.

So the pubs may be immune to rising debt servicing, but their customers certainly aren't. Add to that the general economic situ,and ME,and money might start to shift.ie a sell off in Equities for example. Any company will get hit by that regardless of how much debt they do or do not have.

So being perfectly rational here.

[fangorn2] 22/2/2011 18:45

Yes, they aren't in the struggling pubs group, but pubs in general must be finding it difficult, and will indeed find so more as the tax hikes start to bite.

Have finger over the sell button. Wavering at the moment but...starting to get itchy about global situ - there's still alot of debt out there that needs to be financed this year, particularly in Europe. Add the ME tensions and we've a recipe for carnage imv. Particularly if Oil , Gold, and thus Inflation continue to rise..

[fangorn2] 22/2/2011 17:11

Interesting snippet from motley fool on Marstons concerning their Divi report card.

Marstons: - Motley Dividend Report Card – One to avoid
Today, I see similar red flags being raised on pub-operator Marston's (LSE: MARS) dividend. Its current score is as follows:


Marston's Last 12months 31 Dec 09 31 Dec 08
History 1 1 2
Sustainability
Balance Sheet 2 2 2
Income Statement 4 1 4
Free Cash Flow 1 1 1
Growth  
Income Statement 3 1 3
Cash Flow 1 1 1
Sustainable Growth 1 1 2
Total Score 1.6 1.1 1.8
Final Grade F F F

Marston's dividend has a very shaky track record and the balance sheet is uninspiring with an interest coverage ratio (operating profit / interest expenses) around two times.

Most importantly, its consistent lack of free cash flow cover is reason enough to be cautious. With a price-to-tangible book value of 1.1 times, value investors may have reason to be attracted to Marston's shares, but I think income-focused investors should think twice before buying solely for its trailing dividend yield of 5.6%.


Given that I invested for the yield, and we all know how pubs in general are struggling, and are expected to continue to do so as PDI is reduced by one tax rise or another , am starting to consider whether this is one to remain invested in.

Anyone with any thoughts?

[gbb483] 18/2/2011 09:18

No, it shows there's nothing controversial going on so they can't be accused of insider dealing. They probably had a load of options they don't know what to do with, and 0.005% in the bulding society wasn't worth it.

[deadly] 17/2/2011 18:34

Director buy 100,000 @ 101.75p. Hasn't boosted the price but shows a lot of confidence.

[diku] 15/2/2011 16:21

Yes I was thinking the same...though with a 2 heads formation...

[farnesbarnes] 15/2/2011 16:18

Looking like a head and shoulders!

[jeffian] 31/1/2011 12:28

Slightly surprised MARS hasn't had a better reaction to GNK trading update today, given that the business model of the two companies is so similar.

[victor102] 28/1/2011 10:40

As usual buy rumour sell on news thingy.

[farnesbarnes] 28/1/2011 09:55

rate rises less likely after the awful GDP figures

[dnfa1975] 28/1/2011 08:52

sold for a small profit - worried about the billion in debt level and rates rising as could have a magnified effect

[lord gnome] 28/1/2011 07:28

Bang goes my 80p buy-in then. Lovely statement for all holders to read. So much for analysts' research!

[fangorn2] 28/1/2011 07:18

Trading update

[victor102] 27/1/2011 19:16

Trading update tomorrow.

[lord gnome] 26/1/2011 18:58

80p? I should be so lucky! I'll keep some cash ready - just in case ;-))

[farnesbarnes] 26/1/2011 10:31

You've gotta luv'em. "Yeah, this was previously on our conviction sell list, but it looks like it may be gaining some support, so it's now slightly less of a conviction sell".

[victor102] 26/1/2011 10:04

No doubt a lot of scientific formula used to up the price by 1p. They could have saved themselves a lot of energy & ink by keeping the price at 80p.

[farnesbarnes] 26/1/2011 08:16

26.1.11

Goldman Sachs "conviction sell" on MARS, tp raised to 81 from 80.

[diku] 25/1/2011 15:21

Sometimes MARS does get a broker recommendation....sorry for the duplicate..

24-Jan-11 Marston's MARS Peel Hunt Limited Buy 100.90p 124.00p - Reiteration

[farnesbarnes] 25/1/2011 08:16

Never noticed before how MARS always had a poor early January, on to recover on the weekend just gone. Its like clockwork over the past 4 years.

OT - Gary Glitter has approached Randy Lerner asking about the managers job, on hearing that Villa's front line are Young, Bent and possibly Keane.

[dnfa1975] 24/1/2011 21:36

this is going to surge imho, dyor