Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[luderitz] 27/11/2019 16:40

Regarding takeovers would they not have been bid for already if they were that much of a catch, Green King and Fullers have both been bid for this year instead.

[skinny] 27/11/2019 16:26

That would be my take - see post 3254.

[jeffian] 27/11/2019 16:23

"I assume share price is going up as City boys and girls happy MARS are delivering what's requested."

I doubt it. Growth remains sclerotic, ROC awful and progress on debt reduction slow. I imagine the share price strength reflects more that the worse they do, the likelier that someone will swoop on them for the assets. Can't come soon enough IMV.

[skinny] 27/11/2019 16:16

2 year+ high @132.30p

[davr0s] 27/11/2019 16:12

I'm looking to add so maybe I'll be buying yours

[cc2014] 27/11/2019 16:03

Sold some of mine. Happy to keep the rest. Happy to reload if it falls.

I assume share price is going up as City boys and girls happy MARS are delivering what's requested.

[mister md] 27/11/2019 15:08

fenners - agreed. Though pleasantly surprised at the market reaction and holding on to my shares (just)

[fenners66] 27/11/2019 10:06

Mister MD
27 Nov '19 - 07:27 - 3255 of 3256

>"fenners, underlying op profit flat on last year, but statutory loss due to impairment charges. Net debt still very high though"



The divi may be covered by "underlying earnings" But that's the point its NOT EPS

My beef with so many company reports these days is they have adopted their own non-statutory reporting , its all *adjusted, *non-underlying , *after exceptionals , *ignoring everything we don't like, scroll down to page 120 to find the real results etc, etc.

However most companies are careful enough to actually state the *adjusted (BS) earnings EPS cover dividend - not just mis-state EPS when the EPS is actually negative !!

[spacecake] 27/11/2019 07:40

Disappointing- Net debt still rising.
Encouraging- No new builds.

[mister md] 27/11/2019 07:27

fenners, underlying op profit flat on last year, but statutory loss due to impairment charges. Net debt still very high though

[fenners66] 27/11/2019 07:21

EPS (2.8)p vs 7.1p

then they say
" Final dividend maintained at 4.8p per share covered 1.8x by earnings "

NOT by my definition it isn't

[skinny] 26/11/2019 16:31

Results in the Morning.

[davr0s] 13/11/2019 07:28

I just follow trend until it ends and it's fine here. All this analysis creates opinion and bias as we've seen from a number of other posts who seem to have convinced themselves that the price really ought to be trending the other way

[septimus quaid] 13/11/2019 07:19

Yes, more profit per unit in future but less units

.but what about all the cash Marstons received, the potential reduction in interest payments/improved terms for future borrowings, enhanced business resilience?

[fenners66] 12/11/2019 23:09

"The disposal will result in average profit per pub in the retained estate increasing by around 7%"

What a magnificently meaningless statistic !!

Its so corporate to include something like that , which is basically an empty but mathematical statement.

For the uninitiated it may seem to be good news. After all it sounds like more profit....

But of course there will Not be any more actual profit per pub. With loss of economies of scale there may well be less.
And of course the accounts will show less profits and a loss on disposal.

The BS was strong with that statement....

[oldvic] 12/11/2019 09:32

clearing the decks,doing the washing up
take over target

[mr_spock] 05/11/2019 16:06

The sold-off pubs cannot have been of that high a quality if, as per the RNS,
"The disposal will result in average profit per pub in the retained estate increasing by around 7%"

[our haven] 05/11/2019 15:47

Fenners66 One of my better buys I have to say. For me large holding in Fenner which I was happy/sad that they got bought out. I have to agree though that I can see that last slide too.

[fenners66] 05/11/2019 10:32

So they lose £17.7m + fees and the contribution from these businesses

Also presumably they lose some economies of scale, what % of beer sales do they account for ?
Means deliveries to nearby locations will now be more expensive etc....

It looks like you can get to somewhere like £20m lost vs some interest gained.
Any redundancies to come?
Cost savings as less pubs to manage needs less middle management ?

Factor it all in and then they can state that given eps slide its prudent to reduce dividend and help pay off debt....

[spacecake] 04/11/2019 19:06

Another stupid question: I wonder if Marstons have entered into a supply contract with the new owners and would this account for the 30% off on the asset sale ?

[pherrom] 04/11/2019 17:24

The book value of £62.6m seems very high: a yield of 5.9% (EBITA 7.6%)
The sale value of £44.9m is more realistic: a yield of 8.2% (EBITA 10.6%)

I would say that MARS got a reasonably good deal for what are probably secondary positions; but the book value seems way out.

Which of course still leaves jeffian with his huge '?'

[jeffian] 04/11/2019 16:00

I used to be the Property Director of a brewery fwiw (admittedly a long time ago!). Whilst a formal external property valuation may not be carried out annually, for the purpose of justifying the Balance Sheet at each reporting period, the in-house team would constantly review valuations and adjust as necessary. In between full external valuations, discussions would be held with the external valuers from time to time and small parcels of pubs may be valued as a cross-check. This from Marstons 2018 report & Accounts -

"Properties are revalued by qualifed valuers on a sufficiently regular basis using open market value so that the carrying value of an asset does not differ signifcantly from its fair value at the balance sheet date. Substantially all of the Group’s properties have been externally valued in accordance with the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ Red Book. These valuations are performed directly by reference to observable prices in an active market or recent market transactions on arm’s length terms. Internal valuations are performed on the same basis.
The estate is reviewed for indication of impairment at each reporting date, using a process focusing on areas of risk and business performance throughout the portfolio to identify any exposure.
Impairment losses are charged to the revaluation reserve to the extent that a previous gain has been recorded, and thereafter to the income statement. Surpluses on revaluation are recognised in the revaluation reserve, except to the extent that they reverse previously charged impairment losses, in which case the reversal is recorded in the income statement."

For Langtons to say the properties are "not typical of the group’s estate and the valuation cannot be carried across to other units" is nonsensical. It raises a huge question mark in my mind.