Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 25/6/2019 10:45

A positive article from Questor in today's Telegraph -



The only comment I would take issue with is his praise for winding down investment in new pub builds to save capital but lauding their "6 breweries and state-of-the-art bottling and canning facilities". There is an argument that that is 5 breweries too many (pace CAMRA members!) and that recent investments in new brewery and canning/bottling facilities is the problem, not the solution.

[jeffian] 25/6/2019 10:44

Double post

[chinese investor] 18/6/2019 13:16

In times of uncertainty brewers always do well...
...and the best hops are from England so no worries with BREXIT !

[skinny] 17/6/2019 13:30

A reminder :- .

[chinese investor] 17/6/2019 09:42

Soon !

Chinese Investor (MARS) 5 Jun '19 - 08:18
120p is on the horizon !

[philoosh] 14/6/2019 13:04

no no no. Keep going up !!! lets get back up to the high figures of 2017. Make me a happy man!!

[chinese investor] 11/6/2019 09:10

Seventh Day Of Rises ?

[chinese investor] 10/6/2019 09:22

All Good !

[lukmanpatel] 10/6/2019 06:25

Another troll by the username lsehotdealz haha, share price is stagnant and there’s talks of fundraise at 10p on that board lol desperation has lead to going round posting on different board to prevent share price from dropping, usually ud stay quiet and average down and accumulate if you see huge potential lmaoo he’s spamming all the boards

[pherrom] 08/6/2019 15:16

Yes you're right, he was actually appointed CEO in 2001.

[quady] 08/6/2019 11:21

Pherrom - 'In 1970 Ralph Findlay was appointed CEO of Marston's PLC'. I might take this analysis with a pinch of salt.... obviously director remuneration is in the annual report.

[pherrom] 07/6/2019 16:25

Re. Ralph's salary:

[ny boy] 07/6/2019 13:55

Happy with progress, added sub 100p, last year, all going very well, decent dividend
Having a good year with (STX) and now (MSYS) is breaking out, pays to stay invested, stock picking all important, dyor as usual but some good buys about

[fenners66] 07/6/2019 13:51

That article does not mention the DEBT

[wrestlingmad] 07/6/2019 12:23

A year ago:

MARSTON’S VISIT TO NEW BUILD PUBS, LODGE ETC.:

Introduction:

• Marston’s has been building new pubs since its 2009 Rights Issue.
More than 200 have now been constructed.
Locations have been specifically chosen, layouts (south-facing beer gardens, play areas etc.) have been tailored to the retailer’s needs and there is no tail.
Lodges have recently been a feature and are expected to be allocated more funds going forward.

Trading, capital spending etc.:

• At its H1 numbers last month, Marston’s indicated that it would scale back its new openings program.
The group points out that:

• The market has been very difficult to read over recent months.
Varied weather, an early Easter, sunny Bank Holidays and now the World Cup have meant that comparables have, well, not been very comparable.

• Economic indicators are mixed.
Retail sales are poor but real wages are now back in growth.
A degree of caution may be called for before committing funds.

• The ‘car-crashR17; in casual dining has yet to work through.
More sites may become available and supply may be reduced.

• Marston’s has been adding to its land bank and has the capital, the sites and the people to step up its opening program quickly if circumstances warrant it.

• Re discounting, Marston’s maintains that this is endemic and is a reaction to oversupply.
Marston’s makes selective offers (often via in-pub table talkers) but does not voucher in the way that the casual diners do.
For permanent discounters, it is hard to see a road back.

• Customers are loyal only to the discount and it is not possible to give discounts only to wavering would-be customers.
All customers may avail themselves of vouchers and margins will suffer.

• An alternative to price cutting, Marston’s maintains, is better service, a more pleasant ambience, interesting buildings etc.

New Build Pubs:

• These should be built to the operator’s specifications re location, size, layout etc.

• Marston’s has built over 200 new pubs since 2009.
Over 60% of its Destination pubs are less than 10yrs old.
Where freehold, these have generated a ‘double digit return’ on capital.
It is hard to dispute the group’s claim that this has represented a better use of capital than would have a major acquisition such as Orchid or Spirit.

• Freeholds are typically funded and built from Marston’s own resources.
A number of freeholds have then been sold and leased back over a 30-40yr period at rents below 4%. There are no covenants.

• As regards trading, Marston’s maintains that the food market is reasonably strong, but competition is intense.
Themes (if one is to avoid discounting) include premiumisation, convenience and provenance.
Venue ‘characterR17; and the price sensitivity of its patrons tend to be inversely correlated.

• Smart retailing includes upselling and stacking fridges by margin (craft beers at eye-level, standard lager on the floor) etc. but this can lead to bill shock which, in turn, leads to a reduction in the frequency of visits.

• Marston’s believes that there is a role for the bar even in a food-led pub.
Bars should be interesting and, in busy times, they will be a profit centre as patrons wait for their table or linger in the bar after they have eaten.

• Repeat visits (maximising lifetime spend) is critical.
Customers should not be gouged.

• Delivery is more of an issue in town centres but it does have a role to play in the suburbs.
Marston’s maintains that it should be marginal and not threaten to dominate one’s business.
There is a clear negative impact on margins if this happens.
Not only is margin paid to the delivery company but the newly built pub or restaurant is underutilised in terms of covers.

• Re costs, the chef market is tough.
Competition for staff is more intense in the south than the north.
Staff retention is more important than ever.
Only 5% of Marston’s staff are from the EU.
This is a feature of its units being often suburban rather than city centre.

Lodges:

• The Market:

The branded budget lodging market remains in growth.
The country’s no1 and no2 operators, Premier Inn and Travelodge, maintain that, in addition to underlying growth, the independent market will continue to lose ground to branded operators.

• Marston’s has 1,500 rooms at present.
This remains a modest number vs Premier Inn but MARS has a medium term target of 4,000 rooms at which it should be able to bring more distribution in-house and offer travellers follow on lodgings if they are undertaking a leisure or business trip around the country.
Marston’s has current visibility on projects that will take it to 3,000 rooms.

• MARS used to work with Premier Inn and Travelodge but now aspires to open lodges itself.
It offers free WIFI but has recently begun to charge for breakfast (in line with its peers).
Its 19 metre rooms cost around £70k per room to construct.
They are on a par with the best that Premier Inn has to offer and generate £41 REVPAR against the high £40s generated by Whitbread.

• Growth Plans:

Were there is an opportunity to build less than 40 rooms, these will be constructed above pubs on a ‘stack’ system.

• Lodges of 60-80 rooms plus will be free-standing but they should be next to a c200 cover pub.
The group’s 104 room Ebbsfleet Lodge is adjacent to the group’s newly built Spring River carvery pub.
The area comprises a new town with a planned 15k houses.
Other pubs will be built in time & Marston’s may be in the bidding for sites, the opportunity to expand Spring River, or both.

• Ebbsfleet (land, lodge, pub) cost some £12m.
The site is generating £75k per week or so and rising and should contribute £1.5m in EBITDA per annum.
Where units are sold and leased back, rent should be covered 2.5x or more by EBITDAR.

• Short term, the group is charging for breakfast and getting savvier with regard to pricing.
Longer term, it will rely less on OTAs (online travel agents).
These currently take c70% of business and charge 15% to 18%.
The group may add rooms to existing sites.

• Longer Term Prospects:

Land costs are rising less rapidly than they were 3-4yrs ago but construction costs are in double-digit growth.
Build time is around 2yrs.
Smooth planning could shorten the timetable but this is an aspiration rather than an expectation.
Housing is the main alternative use but developers know that they need to maintain balance.

• The lodge business could be separated from the core, pubs & brewing organisation.
Marston’s is unlikely to be tempted to sell in the short or medium term.
Turnover on a large site could be £50k per week from the pub and £30k from a busy lodge.
Lodge margins are obviously higher as there is no product actually being ‘consumed̵7;.

Langton View: Running pubs well takes a great deal of effort.

• Units need to be located, built, staffed and serviced.
Their product needs to be produced (or brewed), marketed, prepared, sold and served.

• And behind the scenes, everything (staffing, admin, finance, property function etc.) must run smoothly and invisibly and this is simply not something that can be done from a distance and with a spreadsheet.

• And when it comes to the nitty-gritty of running a pub and brewing business, Marston’s is second to none.

• The market is challenging but eating and drinking out remains an affordable aspiration for most consumers.
Lodges are a growth industry and Marston’s is the largest producer of premium cask ale in the country.

• The group’s shares are trading at less than 7x this year’s (and next year’s) earnings & they offer a yield of more than 7%.
Despite issues such as oversupply and rising costs, this looks to be an attractive entry point.

[chinese investor] 07/6/2019 11:03

The biggest brewers in the UK, by market share, are the following :-
Molson Coors – 17.8 %
ABInBev – 17.4 %
Heineken – 17.1 %
Carlsberg – 14.8 %
Diageo – 4.8 %

[new life] 07/6/2019 09:41

Like this share a lot, been good to me. Wonder if a bid is on the cards ?

[chinese investor] 07/6/2019 08:21

Thank you SpagBoll !

[spagboll] 06/6/2019 21:11

Shares mag has a buy on this in this weeks edition. Perhaps accounts for the rise today.

[baticle] 06/6/2019 16:08

I got onboard last year and have being saying these will come good. The share price won't ever rocket but the underlying value in the business is good and growing which will reflect in the share price Creeping upwards slowly but steadily and for me.... not to be underestimated...the dividend which is steady and provides a bit of cashflow into the portfolio, when trades are thin on the ground the Divi's from companies Various provide a bit of profit. As most people on here I'll play it by ear but for the moment I'll be holding for the forseeable.

[skinny] 06/6/2019 11:52

MAB Tp raised by 95p today.

[our haven] 06/6/2019 10:57

Cheshire ManI think that the hardest time to sell is when you have made a loss and the stock does not look good. Hanging on to hope for a turnaround is often a mistake as your reduced monies would be better spent elsewhere. Happy to hold this stock presently.

[cheshire man] 06/6/2019 09:27

CC2014,,,,,,,,,Knowing when to sell is always a problem to me,,,,,,,usually sell to early but console myself sayin a profit is a profit,,,,,decent yield here so think I'll be holding for some time yet or until the story changes

[chinese investor] 06/6/2019 09:23

I only bought these because people in my local are impressed I'm a shareholder.
My losses are now under £100 (excluding dividends).

Being serious I'll sell when these reach 130p !