Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 18/3/2019 12:19

irrelevant. you totally miss the point.

they could've sold the valuable London real estate and simply plonked a brand new brewery in a cheap location elsewhere and merrily carried on brewing beer like they had been doing for countless decades before.

they didn't.

they got out of brewing , lock stock and barrel!

[pj fozzie] 18/3/2019 11:56

QuePassa wrote: "Do remember that Fullers just sold out their breweries to Asahi after centuries of being a brewer. - There was a self-evident reason for that."

Yes - the brewery sits on several acres of prime real estate in west London! Not so for Marstons breweries - so not an equivalent comparison.

Cheers,
PJ

[quepassa] 18/3/2019 11:51

With its MASSIVE debt burden and ginormous brewery overheads, I doubt Marstons is better placed to ride out the industry downturn and growing consumer preference for craft beers than Wetherspoons which have already said they are prepared to cut prices if necessary.

Do remember that Fullers just sold out their breweries to Asahi after centuries of being a brewer. - There was a self-evident reason for that.

In my opinion only, it won't be too long before Marston's undertakes a major corporate re-invention and necessary evolution in view of the unstoppable march of change within the brewing/pub industry.

In terms of brokers being right occasionally...... i wouldn't bet the barn on that. And any optimisim is somewhat muted with brokers at best seeing a meagre 25% upside and HSBC seeing no upside at all.

Good luck but the traditional brewery/pub business model is bust and like so many outdated industries remains set for more pain as consumer habits mutate.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[ianian4] 18/3/2019 11:01

Quepassa,
Marstons is better placed to ride out price rises. Wetherspoons is a pub company that has to buy its beer of others, such as Marstons. Still problems ahead but I would write off Marstons at your peril. Even the brokers, who I have little faith in are optimistic. Lets face it, they must be right occasionally.

[redartbmud] 18/3/2019 10:58

Now that the policy is to maintain the dividend for the next 4 years, the share has become a bond proxy, heavily dependant on interest rate moves.

[deanowls] 18/3/2019 10:51

But sales ahead five per cent over last year due to better weather. Definitely not one to blow the lights out but steady as she goes.

[redartbmud] 18/3/2019 08:22

CI

The dividend has now been frozen for the next 4 years, so that they can continue to fund increases in executive remuneration, whilst they pay down £200 millions of borrowings

[chinese investor] 18/3/2019 08:16

Good Start !

[quepassa] 18/3/2019 08:11

Short positions shooting up again.

Around 2% shorts at the beginning of the year and now shorts are near 3.6% - having touched almost 4% a fortnight ago.



Worrying recent news from Wetherspoon's about trading, costs and beer input prices


Sector still pregnant with troubles.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[chinese investor] 15/3/2019 08:35

Great Dividend !

[wattene] 05/3/2019 11:53

Government Petition to Ban shorting of London AIM stocks.

The AIM stock market is where smaller companies list their shares rather than using the prohibitively expensive main London Stock Market. This is an important market for the growth of smaller UK companies.

In challenging times, shorters seek to borrow the company's shares from a holder for a consideration and to buy them at a later date. They immediately sell these shares which, due to the relative illiquid market, sends the price much lower and hence the shorters can buy them at that lower price - pocketing the difference. The only beneficiaries are the shorters and the market makers with the losers being the reputable company and it's bona fide investors.

[cc2014] 01/3/2019 16:13

It's beginning to look decent. Consistent buying today and it's always good when it goes up on decent volume

[chinese investor] 01/3/2019 08:56

All Good !

[farnesbarnes] 26/2/2019 16:46

Nice bowl forming here?

[spacecake] 26/2/2019 12:30

Weather - unusually warm for time of year and in comparison to last year should see quite a difference in like for like sales. The customers were in the be garden at my local, not the usual thing to do in February !

[jeffian] 26/2/2019 11:15

All the brewers/pubco's have had a good run recently. Look at GNK, EIG etc. Maybe just a realisation that they are cheap and more resilient to economic downturn than some think?

[cheshire man] 26/2/2019 10:13

Can't find any news......but something's brewing …:-)

[chinese investor] 26/2/2019 10:08

Solid Investment !

[stewart_25] 26/2/2019 10:07

through the £ barrier - whats going on?

[illiswilgig] 22/2/2019 12:46

Hmm. Fullers. Yes, good points.

As a (very small) shareholder in Fuller's for many years I see that Fuller trapped themselves on the Griffin Brewery site.

Fullers London estate of pubs and hotels has prospered and grown - alongside a lot of London based businesses.

Fullers shares are highly rated - historically between 15x and 18x earnings. That rating expects a lot of growth.

The growth can be attained through investing in the pubs and hotels - but the brewery also needs investment to grow. It's a masterpiece of efficiency on its 1845 Chiswick site but it can't expand. Fuller's can't afford to invest in both their London estate and a new brewery site.

Continuing to try to do both will result in a share price fall as sufficient growth fails to materialise. They must have been under a lot of pressure to find a way out.

Sad but true.

Also Fullers have a great reputation as brewers - but they have only ever operated one brewery. They have no experience in operating or building other breweries. So that would be quite a big risk.

Asahi have offered them a great way out. A sky-high price which reflects the location and value of the site rather than that of the brewery by brewing the London Pride brand globally - and Asahi take on the risks and investment associated with brewing at other sites for expansion. What this means for the griffin brewery in the long term - who knows? But I doubt you could hope for a better longterm owner than Asahi?

If somebody offered Marston's £250m (or more given the size and capacity of their breweries in comparison) for the Burton or Bedford sites maybe they would take it? But nobody will, the Bedford brewery and business only cost Marston's £55m, and the Marstons estate with it's outside of London and the Southeast locations don't have the same growth prospects as Fullers London Estate.

Marstons is a very different business, in location, scale and prospects. There is a reason why Marstons is on a multiple of 7x and Fullers on 17x. Marstons pays a dividend of 8% and Fullers 2%. Very different businesses with very different markets and opportunities. Selling Marstons breweries won't rerate it to 17x earnings. Sadly.

My crystal ball is currently not operational so I can't say which one is the better investment. I have a larger holding in MARS than I do in FSTA partly due to topping up at recent lows. Neither holding is large in my portfolio. It will be interesting to see how it works out,

apologies for the long ramble,

cheers

[yf23_1] 21/2/2019 22:07

Actually I just checked, it was Aldi.
Just checking out the 2 new shops in our area (Aldi and Lidl) as I work for Tescos and do the booze.
I got a can of American craft IPA at Lidl which is pretty good and only 99p.

Tescos do Punk IPA at 2 (4 packs) for £9.
Other canned craft stuff is 3 for £5, so it looks like we're in trouble, especially if they rotate different beers to keep people's interest.

[yf23_1] 21/2/2019 16:15

Price was way too low (£1.19) for such a good beer.

[chrisdgb] 21/2/2019 15:18

Something brewing............