Marston's Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 16/5/2018 09:50

the results stated that there would be a modest increase in full year dividend.

[ny boy] 16/5/2018 09:48

Bear trap here, sales will rocket over the next few months, so many events taking place, plenty of thirsty drinkers ready to embrace the nice wRm sunny weather.

[this_time_its_different] 16/5/2018 09:47

Marston could go down to 100p, that is where the resistance lies. Though we are trading at a VERY LOW P/E MULTIPLE, I assume we are pretty near book value as well. This is a buying opportunity if the dividend holds (which it should), if the dividend is cut there are more problems on the horizon.

Marston is a BUY below 110p.

[careful] 16/5/2018 09:42

pity the CFO helped to wipe out the profit by dabbling in interest rate swaps.
Insuring against interest rate rises no doubt.
They can't resist trying to be sophisticated to justify their existence and salary.

they should shut up and keep it simple, watch the costs.
boring but important.

[cc2014] 16/5/2018 09:30

Well MAB has turned now. I'm waiting for the stupidly low low before I add.

Something beginning with a 9. I would prefer it went up tbh

[chinese investor] 16/5/2018 09:26

I think MAB are bringing MARS down today !

[the deacon] 16/5/2018 09:24

I've added more to my SIPP. More than happy to add at these prices and reinvest the divi. Reasonably happy with this mornings results and reaction overdone imv

[my retirement fund] 16/5/2018 09:19

I wish I had the confidence to call the bottom

[ny boy] 16/5/2018 09:16

I bought more on this dip, support at 106p being tested, should hold before moving higher this quarter, next few months should be blow out sales.

Ex divi 2.7p next Thursday 24 May

Reasons to be cheerful 😀

[chinese investor] 16/5/2018 09:01

I'll be happy if this finishes on 108p - great dividend !

[exel] 16/5/2018 08:47

This does now look like another buying opportunity, with the uncertainties of what was always going to be a challenged half year face up on the table. Long term value is on offer here, albeit with a stable covered dividend, rather than a growing one, as yet.

[careful] 16/5/2018 08:42

seems the whole sector is struggling.
mars results looked ok.
bought a few more just now.

[chinese investor] 16/5/2018 08:17

Clearing the Pension Deficit by 2022 !

[ny boy] 16/5/2018 08:14

Good chance to add today

[chinese investor] 16/5/2018 08:03

MAB are well down !

[exel] 16/5/2018 08:02

Something for everyone to pick over in this update. MARS have seized the chance (on a statutory loss et al) to hold the div rather than grow it. Smart move!

[ny boy] 16/5/2018 07:56

Reasons to be cheerful,long term hold, attractive dividend, not too highly rated, room for capital growth, Royal Wedding, FA Cup this weekend, nice spell of good weather ahead, Liverpool in the Champions League Final, in a few weeks,World Cup next Month, if England could have a good run and some luck for a change!

[the deacon] 16/5/2018 07:41

Langton View:MARSTON'S H1 RESULTS:Marston's has this morning reported H1 numbers to 31 March 2018 and our comments are set out below:Headline Numbers:• Sales, including the impact of the Charles Wells beer & distribution acquisition, are up by 20% to £528.1m• EBITDA is up by 5% to £95.0m and PBT is up by 8% to £36.3m• EPS is in line with last year (on an increased number of shares) at 4.8p• The interim dividend is being maintained at 2.7p. For the moment, we continue to assume a small increase to the final payment• Total sales (LfLs covered below) are flat across Destination & Premium, up 2% in Taverns and up by 1.4% across Leased & Tenanted pubs. Beer Company sales are up by 29%. Total pub sales, despite the snow, are up by around £600k.Trading – Destination & Premium:• Total managed and franchised LfL sales are level with last year. Within this, Taverns are up by 2.9% and Destination & Premium units are down by 1.8%• All of the Destination & Premium shortfall on last year is due to the snow in late February and March• Margin is down by 0.7%. Of this, around 50bps is underlying (this is in line with expectations) and 20bps is due to the snow• Average profit per pub was up by 1%• Heavy discounting continues in the market as a whole and, though Marston's is not taking part, price rises may not be advisable in the immediate termTrading – Taverns:• Taverns' LfL sales are +2.9%. This represents a pickup since week 16, at which time LfL sales were up by only 2.6%• Wet-led sales held up well, even during the snow. Fewer customers rely on cars & trade is a little less weather-dependentTrading – Leased Pubs:• Leased income is up 2% on a LfL basis. The estate is performing well. Wet sales are holding up. The LfL sales performance is in line with that at week 16Trading – Beer Company:• Marston's beer company has increased own-brewed beer volumes by 29%, largely on the back of the Charles Wells' acquisition• Margins are lower by around 3% as Charles Wells' business operates at a lower margin with more national customers and it has more licensed brands. In addition, the enlarged distribution business operates at a lower margin. Margins should pick up in H2• Synergies are progressing as planned. The group will generate at least £4m of savings.• Organic volumes are in growth. Marson's now accounts for almost a quarter of the premium cask market in the UKBalance Sheet, Cash Flow & Debt:• Marston's operating cashflow is some 6% higher• H1 generally sees a cash outflow (the final dividend is paid in the period etc.) and the bulk of this should reverse in H2• September 2018 debt should be only marginally higher than September 2017• Pro-forma debt to EBITDA is 4.8x. Fixed charge cover is 2.6x.• Marston's pub estate has been valued at £2.1bn. A £30m impairment has passed through the P&L but, for the most part, asset values are higher. NAV is 142p per share• The group has concluded its Sept 17 triennial pension review. The deficit has fallen by £10m to £40m and the £8m p.a. deficit reduction payments will remain in place for the time being. The deficit should be cleared by 2021/22.• Marston's has opened 6 new pubs & bars in H1 along with 6 new lodges.• For the full year, it expects to open a further 9 pubs & bars with no further lodges.• Next year's opening programme may be edged back to around 10 pubs & bars with 5 new lodges expected to open• The slower rate of openings will save around £25m in capex but it could lead to some minor reductions to FY19 estimatesConclusion & Outlook:• Marston's has reassured that trading is in line with expectations.• The snow has been little more than an irritant, but the group is considering slowing openings and husbanding its cash a little more actively going forward.• The group does not comment on current trading but our understanding is that, whilst April was tough initially, when the sun shone, pubs performed very well.• CEO Ralph Findlay comments 'we are pleased to report another period of good growth in revenue and underlying profit before tax.'• Mr Findlay says 'strong trading in Brewing and Taverns and Leased pubs offsets the adverse impact of poor weather on 'drive-to' pubs in our Destination estate, further validating the resilience of our model.'• Referring to its slightly slowing openings programme, MARS says 'we have made modest and prudent adjustments to our capital plans to reflect the current economic and consumer climate.'• CEO Mr Findlay says 'Marston's is a balanced business and we are confident that the medium-term outlook for the eating-out and wet-led pub sectors remains good and that targeting an increased profitable share of a growing market through an unremitting focus on quality, service, standards and value for money remains key.'Langton Comment:• Marston's has acknowledged the impact of the snow on its Destination & Premium business. It has nonetheless outperformed the market and wet-led sales have been more robust. Beer sales are strong and synergy benefits continue to be mined from the Charles Wells acquisition.• The consumer is under pressure and Marston's is making a couple of defensive moves with regard to capex, new openings etc.• Nonetheless, the group's shares trade at around 8x earnings and yield around 6.7%.• The group has an attractive, well-managed and well-maintained estate of largely freehold properties. Food and lodging are growth businesses and Marston's shares are not trading on a demanding rating. The company, overall, is selling product that the consumer would like to buy at a price they are prepared to pay.

[careful] 16/5/2018 07:34

Yes, accountancy is a topic in itself.
Assets per share after re evaluation (and all of that lo)t were 142p.
Think of a number etc.

Try being a RR shareholder when they account for currency hedging movements.
They can, and do, show losses of billions even in a good trading year.
(they lost £4.6bn in 2016)

[brwo349] 16/5/2018 07:28

Like many companies they put all the good stuff in the headlines and put the less positive stuff further down.



On a statutory basis, the loss before tax was £13.4 million principally reflecting accounting adjustments relating to the estate valuation and changes in the fair value of interest rate swaps, both of which are non-cash items. The basic loss per share was 2.0 pence per share.

[careful] 16/5/2018 07:22

Results look sound.
undervalued.

[ny boy] 16/5/2018 07:21

I’ll have a drink to those results..cheers€076;

[jeffian] 15/5/2018 10:33

Like this, you mean?





Edit: Ah, corrected.