Marshall Motor Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 27/5/2020 22:29

"The death rate is no bad than a bad 'flu season".

The number of deaths to date is similar to a bad flu season, yes. Thank goodness, therefore, for the lockdown, or it would have been several times worse and hospitals would have been overwhelmed!

Bad flu: fatality rate = 0.1%
Covid-19: fatality rate is between 0.3% (optimistic German study) and 0.9% (UK "expert" guesstimate) with various higher estimates floating around for populations with worse genetics/age profiles.

[this_is_me] 27/5/2020 18:06

The death rate is no worse than a bad 'flu season.

[mw8156] 27/5/2020 16:56

162 dead in the local medium sized hospital, neighbouring hospitals are 340, 420, 450, 800 Barts, some in their 20s without preexisting medical conditions, no doubt,
Reading had 50 on ventilators at one time, now down to a more manageable 11 so threatened to be overwhelmed: would have thought the lockdown was necessary otherwise there would have been an exponential rise in hospitalisations, shortage of oxygen, more deaths and third world care for some,
granted, the disease may well soon reappear when lockdown is lifted, there is no vaccine or decent therapy and the NHS could be better managed, they should have laid off/given a sabbatical to a lot of their peripheral staff, like me, who have been largely idle while this has been going on,
but do believe lockdown was necessary and had to take precedence over eg selling/servicing cars, many imported, in the last several months and that's said as a Family shareholder in MMH, VTU and CAMB so should have a balanced view.

[this_is_me] 27/5/2020 07:51

The same people who should take extra precautions to try and avoid the likes of 'flu should, obviousl,y take the same precautions to avoid this virus. Sick people should stay at home, in bed if needed. The rest of us should be left to get on with life otherwise the country will not be able to afford a health service. Ours is not as good as it should be as it is.

[mw8156] 26/5/2020 21:17

wouldn't think that were you an obese diabetic hypertensive male in your 70s...
arguably they should have imposed the quarantine sooner, said on the news tonight that the week's delay may have caused the numbers who have died to quadruple.

[this_is_me] 26/5/2020 07:26

Getting back to near normal after the ridiculous imprisonment of healthy people in our own homes.

[mortimer7] 05/5/2020 09:19

Figures just published by SMMT show the number of new cars registered in the UK in April were 4,321. April 2019 was 161,064. A 97.3% decline.
In April there are similar falls across Europe, with France 88.8% down and the Italy 97.5%.

[mortimer7] 06/4/2020 09:14

Figures just published by SMMT show the number of new cars registered in the UK in March were down 44.4% compared to March 2019.
Total units registered were 254,684 vs 458,054 last year.

SMMT Comment
"With the country locked down in crisis mode for a large part of March, this decline will come as no surprise. Despite this being the lowest March since we moved to the bi-annual plate change system, it could have been worse had the significant advanced orders placed for the new 20 plate not been delivered in the early part of the month. We should not, however, draw long term conclusions from these figures other than this being a stark realisation of what happens when economies grind to a halt.

How long the market remains stalled is uncertain, but it will reopen and the products will be there. In the meantime, we will continue to work with government to do all we can to ensure the thousands of people employed in this sector are ready for work and Britain gets back on the move"

[edmundshaw] 14/3/2020 20:15

Thanks aston. It is easier to read than listen to the detail without missing stuff.

[this_is_me] 10/3/2020 08:06

Another set of market beating results.

[mortimer7] 05/3/2020 09:30

SMMT released unit numbers today for new cars registered in the UK in February.

Total units registered were 79,594 a decrease by 2.9% compared to February 2019 (81,969).

Not too significant though as February has been the smallest month for registrations over the last couple of years. March will be the tester.

[jaf111] 06/2/2020 14:09

AGFX, BKS, BLV, MJH & KETK

[mw8156] 06/2/2020 13:33

any indications of the other 5?

[jaf111] 06/2/2020 06:54

Gets a write up in Shares Magazines as one of the 6 best small caps for 2020.....

[mortimer7] 06/1/2020 09:21

SMMT Figures published this morning show the number of new car units registered in the UK in December increased by 3.4% compared to December 2018. (148,997 vs 144,089).
The total number registered in 2019 was 2,311,140 compared to 2,367,147 in 2018.

SMMT Commentary "Despite the overall decline in 2019, the UK car market remains the second biggest in the EU, behind Germany. It is also one of the most diverse, with buyers able to choose from some 350 different models available in various fuel types and body styles to suit all driving needs. With nearly 90 exciting new generation models – 23 of them zero emission cars and 11 plug-in hybrids – set to make their showroom debuts in 2020, and some compelling deals on offer, the industry is committed to new technology that will benefit consumers and the broader environment".

[55biker] 31/12/2019 11:36

With the share price as much as £1 below NAV per share .............and now a very positive Election result there must be a lot of upside during 2020 for this and the CEO has a great track record in delivering results.

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2019 14:31

Thanks for the links. I bought a nearly new S90 Inscription Pro from MMH.
The deal was so good went up to Grantham to purchase.

When refering to the cycle turning, we are not in recession, just slow growth/
reduced consumer confidence. You really only know how robust a cyclical
business is when you have a recession proper, with GDP turning negative.

[edmundshaw] 19/12/2019 14:10

Of course, they may be able to improve profitability by closing the worst performing unit(s) of the acquisitions if necessary, and with contiguous sites that might also improve profits at those other Marshalls sites. So it is not certain they will need a turnaround on all the acquired businesses.

Meanwhile, the cycle will turn at some point and help us out, too, and the freehold continues to grow without share dilution...

Feeling quite positive here after watching Jeff's links (thanks) and thinking about this for a bit longer...

[jeff h] 19/12/2019 13:40

....and a couple more:-

[jeff h] 19/12/2019 11:31

Worth a read:-

[edmundshaw] 18/12/2019 19:19

So is this expansion long term thinking or profit-agnostic empire building? Or even simply careless splashing out the excess cash being generated over and above needs for the business and the enhanced dividend?

From past experience MMH is pretty good at deal-making and not over-paying. I don't believe he would throw cash around carelessly just because it is burning a hole in the company's pocket, so I am expecting he sees these initially earnings-dilutive businesses as genuinely good turnaround prospects. But everyone has to form their own opinion...

Trading update, given recent conditions in the sector, is excellent.

[essentialinvestor] 18/12/2019 10:32

Words fail me.

[this_is_me] 18/12/2019 07:25

This acquisition takes advantage of low valuations due to the downturn in the car market and the problems VW have had. Neither of these conditions are likely to last for ever so it is probably a good time to invest.