Marshall Motor Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 19/10/2021 10:05

Another breakout to a new all time share price high.

[edmundshaw] 14/10/2021 08:57

Not sure about the dividend. I think it will continue to go up at some level given the superb outperformance we have seen of late. But this acquisition looks like a tremendous deal, this acquisitive management has not lost its touch. I expect MMH management will improve the operations and performance of the acquired business as they usually do, adding further value.

[this_is_me] 14/10/2021 07:40

That looks like a great acquisition for the long term. It will probably keep a lid on dividend payments in the medium term.

[jaf111] 06/10/2021 18:08

Another outstanding update…….although certainly no surprise (see my post 382.
Shares up today but still well below where it was 3 weeks ago which is surely ridiculous…..as Zeus Capital notes FY21 P/E ratio just 4.
Crazy valuation !!!

[daneswooddynamo] 06/10/2021 18:02

The market has always valued the car dealers cheaply, personally I have never really understood why

[mw8156] 06/10/2021 17:35

in light of this, we didn't get a fair compensation for Cambria, I voted against the offer but had to accept.

[edmundshaw] 06/10/2021 13:24

Outstanding update. More double digit sector outperformance!

PER for 2021 at 225p now looking under 5, probably under 4.5. Expect a good dividend, perhaps a special if some of the profits (volume x margins) look unsustainable longer term.

Cash is burning a hole in the pockets here. On results day for 2021 I would hope for a big surge in the share price if the price has not risen significantly beforehand.

I have added today.

[this_is_me] 06/10/2021 07:29

the Board now expects that continuing underlying profit before tax for 2021 will be not less than GBP50m.

In August 2021, the Group announced its expectation that full year profits for the year ending 31 December 2021 would be not less than GBP40 million.

A huge increase in expectations in just two months.

[mortimer7] 05/10/2021 09:58

SMMT have released the figures for UK new car registrations for the month of September today. Total 215,312. September 2020 was 328,041. A decline of 34.4% year on year.

The chip shortage has forced car makers around the world to curb production.

BBC Stating Second-hand car sales in the UK have more than doubled in the last few months due to the shortage of new models.

So actually this state of affairs is working in favour of large dealers & against manufacturers:-
Higher GP Margins being retained on New Cars.
Massive upsurge in Used Car Sales & Profit Margin

[melloteam] 06/9/2021 17:40

Marshall Motor Group will be presenting on the Mello Webinar tonight! If you would like a complimentary ticket, please use the code 0609MelloGuest.
hxxps://melloevents.com/mellomonday-6th-september/

The programme is as follows:
6.00 pm Mello welcome and news
6.10 pm David Stredder interviews renowned private investor John Lee
6.40 pm Company Presentation National Milk Records
7.10 pm Graham Neary presents his new Monopoly Investor venture
7.30 pm Company Presentation Marshall Motors
8.10 pm Book reviews by Rebecca Stewart and Paul de Gruchy
8.25 pm Company Presentation Savannah Resources
8.55 pm Mello BASH

[mortimer7] 06/9/2021 09:15

SMMT figures published this morning show the total number of new cars registered in the UK in the month of August was 68,033. A 22% reduction on the 87,226 in August 2020.

[this_is_me] 18/8/2021 16:55

The re-rating continues.

[edmundshaw] 11/8/2021 08:46

Interesting from Zeus.

We had 26p EPS in 2018 and 23p EPS in 2019, obviously far more this year (should be at least double). Also, we had net debt around 37p per share in 2019, now we have adj. net cash of 72p, that in itself seems worth £1 per share before cautiously factoring in a possible effect from the limited supply of S/H vehicles. EPS for this year is going to be huge, but even reverting after a year or two, the PER is comfortably under 10 with considerable net cash and massive freehold/long leasehold assets of c.175p/share...

MMH is still very undervalued. Disclosure: I am holding on to an overweight position.

[davebowler] 10/8/2021 13:36

Zeus;
Exceptional H1 performance
Marshall Motor Holdings (“MMH”) has announced an exceptional set of H1 results demonstrating strong market outperformance across the board, hitting record levels of revenue, PBT and gross margin. We have upgraded our forecasts post the update last week, and reiterate our view that this is a strong and reliable platform that looks significantly undervalued.

§ H1 results: H1 underlying PBT was at record levels at £38.4m vs. a loss last year of £11.8m, even after repaying the £4.0m of furlough support received in 2021. Revenue during the period was +49%, with LFL revenue +49.9%, reflecting strong market outperformance in both new and used vehicle sales. Gross margin in H121 was 11.8% and 117bps ahead of the prior year, with used vehicle margins +246bps at 8.6%. Underlying operating costs were £12.9m higher than last year, in part because of the furlough support received in H1 2020. That said, underlying costs were lower than 2019 levels despite acquisitions adding c. £16m of costs, although the Group did benefit from £4.7m of business rates relief during the period. Due to the planned increase in the corporation tax rate to 25% from April 2023, there was a non-underlying accounting tax charge of £7.4m. An interim dividend of 8.86p was declared, and adjusted net cash stood at £57.2m (>70p per share).

§ Key drivers: As previously flagged, the used car market has been exceptionally strong during the period with MMH continuing to outperform. LFL units were +51.7% YOY, with LFL revenue +56.3% on the same basis. Data from Auto Trader showed used car vehicle transactions +31% highlighting the extent to its market outperformance. Gross profits went from £24.3m in H1 2020 to £53.2m in the period, with margins advancing from 6.1% to 8.6% in the period. Total new car revenue during the period was £610.5m and +47.4% on a LFL basis. Gross profits were up £16.9m in absolute terms, with margins +85bps to 6.9%. All of the aftersales operations remained open throughout the closure of its retail showrooms from 4 January to 12 April 2021. Revenues were +31.8% with LFL revenue +34.8%. However, due to the ongoing impact of COVID-19, H1 2021 revenues increased by just 2.0% vs the same period in 2019. Gross margins advanced by 171bps to 46.8% during the period.

§ Forecasts: Following the statement last week that underlying PBT for the full year would be no less than £40.m, we have increased our 2021E forecast to £42.1m. Our forecasts could well prove conservative in light of the H1 performance and likely to be dependent on how the Group performs in September. While order book intake appears to be healthy, we do expect supply issues to bite as we saw in the July SMMT data last week.

§ Investment view: We re-iterate our view that MMH has a creditable and reliable platform, which we consider will emerge as a sector winner. A 2021 P/E of 5.9x and a yield of 5.4% looks at odds with the progress delivered to date.

[jaf111] 10/8/2021 08:20

Zeus Capital update.....

Marshall Motor Holdings (“MMH”) has announced an exceptional set of H1 results demonstrating strong market outperformance across the board, hitting record levels of revenue, PBT and gross margin. We have upgraded our forecasts post the update last week, and reiterate our view that this is a strong and reliable platform that looks significantly undervalued.

Anyone got access to the upgraded numbers???

[jaf111] 10/8/2021 07:56

Absolutely right about the £40m forecast.....so the question is when will they announce the next "above expectations" update?
My money is on mid October!!!

[jeff h] 10/8/2021 07:52

Somehow I think they will beat the £40m pre tax profit forecast for this year!

[this_is_me] 10/8/2021 07:30

Results nothing short of spectacular. While circumstances helped, the outperformance of the market was impressive. Huge interim dividend although the final will be smaller.

[daneswooddynamo] 09/8/2021 23:15

Are you sure as they said 10th in their recent update?

[edmundshaw] 09/8/2021 22:56

interims out next week... 18th I believe.

[jaf111] 09/8/2021 11:41

Nicely purring with interims out tomorrow....
Surely a given that the interim dividend will be announced / restored.....
Still far too cheap IMHO.

[mortimer7] 05/8/2021 09:21

SMMT have released the figures for UK new car registrations for the month of July today. Total 123,296. July 2020 was 174,887. A decline of 29.5% year on year.

July 2020 performance was heightened as registrations rose dramatically as showrooms enjoyed a full month’s operation following the first 2020 lockdown.

SMMT indicate the decline was predominantly within large fleets 33.4% down on last July, as the ongoing semiconductor shortage and the ‘pingdemicR17; impacted on both supply and demand.

[daneswooddynamo] 04/8/2021 12:06

Simple, MMH is quite undervalued ( although the dealers have never attracted decent valuations) and the likes of Cazoo are valued stupidly

[1tx] 04/8/2021 10:09

I agree the valuation seems modest;I certainly was not expecting this level of profits when I bought the shares earlier in the year!In terms of valuation one thing that interests me is the valuation being given to online car sales operators like Cazoo compared to better conventional retailers like MMH because we have the advantage of getting the first pick of better used cars as we have the top new car agencies against which we get quality used cars in part exchange.

[jaf111] 04/8/2021 08:43

So if underlying profits now forecast to near double then eps should be 40p thus putting the shares on a derisory 6 times earnings even after today’s rise……..

Surely the shares are woefully undervalued and should be at least 100p higher.