Marshall Motor Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 15/8/2017 07:32

Impressive results.

[edmundshaw] 06/7/2017 16:19

Cheers, I like those short pithy interviews, and there is aways some point of interest. I had no idea they had done 21 deals in 9 years; good to hear they will not overpay (I know, they all say that!). As for the lack of detail, I can read the financial statements at my leisure...

[jeff h] 06/7/2017 11:23

...and more comment:-

[mortimer7] 04/7/2017 11:40

Yes, thanks for posting all the above research/commentary.

[edmundshaw] 04/7/2017 11:24

Thanks guys. All looking good, and a nice price to fill up at...

[jeff h] 04/7/2017 10:54

Edison increased forecasts:-

[davebowler] 04/7/2017 10:54

Zeus;
Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) has confirmed it is trading ahead of expectations for the full year following a strong H1 performance, with a particularly strong first quarter driven by both modest LFL revenue growth and to a greater extent outperformance from the Ridgeway acquisition. The outlook further out is less certain with the board highlighting growing uncertainty in the new car market as reasons for a more cautious long term view, which is a view we concur with. That said, we upgrade our EPS forecasts in 2017 and 2018 by 6-7% and believe the current share price looks heavily discounted with the stock on a prospective P/E of sub 5x with the dividend yield approaching 5% and the current market capitalisation underpinned by property assets.
Pre-close statement: MMH has issued a pre-close trading update this morning, which confirms that following a strong H1 performance, driven by a particularly good performance in the first quarter, the company is trading ahead of expectations for the full year. The retail business has seen material growth in revenue and profitability as the Ridgeway assets have made a strong contribution. In line with the wider market the company experienced a particularly strong Q1 as new car registrations were pulled forward ahead of the change to VED. The group saw good growth of used and aftersales revenue although there was continued margin pressure in the used car segment through the period. The leasing segment has continued to experience good profitability, albeit we expect this to be down YOY during H1 following a exceptional period last year following a reduced level of disposals.
Forecast assumptions: Following the positive update from MMH this morning we are upgrading our 2017 and 2018 EPS forecasts by 6-7%. For 2017E we anticipate a H1 adjusted PBT of £18.0m vs. £14.0m last year, albeit anticipate an implied H2 of £10.0m vs. £11.0m last year to reflect tougher market conditions. We have also flowed through modest growth into 2018E. Our net debt forecasts also fall following the improved trading performance and the disposal made for £2m earlier this year.
Outlook: The outlook statement was cautious on a longer-term basis, consistent with our industry view anticipating further declines in new car volumes through 2017. It is clear that Q2 trends in the new car market have deteriorated following a record Q1 this year. From a demand side perspective, we remain cautious with consumer confidence softening in recent months against a backdrop of increasing political and economic uncertainty.
Investment view: While there is growing uncertainty across the sector, we believe this is more than priced into the shares as it trades on a prospective P/E of sub 5x with a dividend yield approaching 5%. The current market capitalisation is also more than backed by freehold assets (£109m freehold and long leasehold assets at 2016 balance sheet position) we believe is also attractive for a business that is clearly delivering against a tougher trading backdrop.

[jeff h] 04/7/2017 10:49

N+1 Singer courtesy of Research Tree:-

When we wrote on Marshall Motors 8 weeks ago, we indicated the fall in the share price (to 159p) was anomalous to its underlying operating performance and, after a strong Q1, likely short term newsflow on trading. Since then the shares have fallen a further 15% to an all-time low (134p). Today’s H1 update confirms the group delivered further material improvements in profitability on both a LFL and total basis – i.e. including a full contribution from Ridgeway which is now almost fully integrated and bringing both scale and geographic benefits. Whilst maintaining a cautious stance due to uncertainties in the market, performance is ahead of expectations and will drive consensus upgrades of 5-6%. On a cal17 P/E of <5x and yielding 4.4% the stock represents deep value including vs. peers. Expect a rebound today.

[55biker] 04/7/2017 09:04

Good news at last.

Target price up from £2.40 to £2.50 .......... plenty of asset backing per share .......and yet it's still trading at a massive discount.

With most of the shares held by the family and/or II's maybe it's been easy to short this on top of general uncertainty about Brexit etc.

The PCP article in the DM was also a shoddy bit of journalism helping depress trading.

However the CEO has a reputation as a very dynamic individual so there looks to be plenty of upside with this company over the next few yeas.

[jaf111] 04/7/2017 08:15

So what have we got in the Trading Statement......cautious, declining market etc etc as one might expect in view of the recent share price collapse.......

BUT surely some mistake....."Full year outlook ahead of Expectations"

And the market response - a measly 3.6% increase so far.....

Frustrating!

[55biker] 03/7/2017 15:39

Quite agree.

Believe that these shares are ridiculously undervalued compared to the asset backing of this outfit and the share price is now below the issue price last year!!!

Just wish I had some more funds to pile in at this level.

[edmundshaw] 03/7/2017 10:53

It would not surprise me if this was being shorted, since there is a big risk of a downturn which could hit the bottom line in the short term. But longer term this company being well run should proper; and even short term there is a risk for shorters that a big sales drop will not transpire.

[55biker] 03/7/2017 10:08

Possibly the Daily Mail article about people being encouraged to take out PCP loans
when they can't afford them.

I believe that MMH have very stringent systems in place plus first class training seminars and therefore only have a very very low return rate on anything they sell.

Don't think this particular CEO would allow any dodgy dealing in his company judging by his previous record.............and which is why I am still heavily invested.

My guess is that this share is being shorted and hopefully the next set of results will stop the rot!

[mortimer7] 28/6/2017 16:03

Anyone have a view on todays share price drop. Just sellers?

[qs99] 19/5/2017 10:22

be fascinating to see TU next week...gla

[55biker] 18/5/2017 14:53

JAF111 ,,,,,,,doubt the Marshall Family will be very pleased with the way this share price is being steadily marked down with hardly any sells.

[edmundshaw] 18/5/2017 09:31

Or, as per last year, another "strategic acquisition"?

[jaf111] 18/5/2017 09:17

AGM next week - 23rd...hopefully they will do a trading update

[jaf111] 15/5/2017 09:56

Cheap....very cheap yes certainly but don't think it will be taken over - major / majority shareholder is the Marshall family

[55biker] 15/5/2017 09:45

Assuming a good Q1 set of numbers this is now well undervalued and should be around £2 at least. Just as with the Bexit Vote - and now this PCP concern - the strong performance of this outfit with a dynamic CEO running it is being overshadowed by other news weighing on the share price

With some Analysts indicating a target price of £2/2.15 then at just £1.60 I wonder if any other companies might be sniffing around?

[edmundshaw] 11/5/2017 10:03

Edison coverage

[santangello] 03/5/2017 11:46

Unexpected opportunity to add here....caught me off guard !!

Currently xd, and illiquid, so mark downs after light sheep selling is to be expected.

[santangello] 05/4/2017 23:39

'Some 562,337 new cars were registered in March according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

This is up 8.4 per cent compared with March 2016 and is the largest monthly total recorded by the industry.'

.......all very encouraging indeed.

[sharesoc] 31/3/2017 20:33

Marshall Motor Holdings present at our Richmond Supper on Tuesday, may be of interest: