Marshall Motor Share Discussion Threads

[this_is_me] 13/3/2019 07:51

Very good results taking into account the decline in the new car market.

[edmundshaw] 04/3/2019 09:16

Not clear whether this acquisition is good or not for investors, as it is initially loss-making. Would like to have heard why management think they can turn it around...

[davidosh] 16/2/2019 02:23

Just to let you all know that Marshall Motors will be exhibiting and presenting at the Mello2019 event on Thursday 16th/Friday 17th May



They will almost certainly be doing two presentations so one in the morning and one afternoon.

More info and tickets here...

[55biker] 15/11/2018 09:10

Very interesting post Podgyted and with asset backing of around £2.40 ps the current share price looks ridiculously cheap. All this doom and gloom and also the Brexit/Brino shambles has pushed the share price down to about half what it probably should be.

[podgyted] 15/11/2018 07:30

Paul Scott on Stocko:-

"This is a turn-up for the books! Car dealer shares have been in the doldrums of late, but things seem to be rebounding;

... better than anticipated trading during October 2018 and a more positive outlook for the remainder of the current financial year.
The following comments echo what another car dealership recently said, and I reported on here. I think it might have been Lookers? Here is what MMH says, which is similar;

As previously announced on 11 October 2018, the introduction of the new Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure ("WLTP") had a significant impact on the UK new vehicle market during September 2018 which was expected to continue for the remainder of the year.

Whilst the resultant new car supply imbalance is continuing, growth in our used car volumes and margins given supply constraints in the new car market, combined with further revenue growth achieved in aftersales, has given us more confidence over the expected outcome for the year.


The conclusion below isn't terribly helpful. They should have mentioned market expectations, not last year's figures;

As a result, the Board now expects continuing underlying profit before tax for the year ending 31 December 2018 to be ahead of the Group's record results reported last year.
Still, I suppose it's a given that better than expected trading is likely to flow through into better than market expectations profit. Why couldn't they have just said that? Extra work has been created now, as I have to look back at last year's results.

Adjusted continuing EPS was 26.9p last year. Stockopedia shows 23.7p consensus forecast for this year. So it looks as if we could be looking at say 28p-ish for this year? That's quite a big beat against forecast, if my numbers are correct.

At 156p per share, I make that an estimated PER of 5.6.

I can't find any updated broker forecasts today, so please treat my guesswork above with caution.

My opinion - this looks a potentially excellent opportunity to pick up some bombed out shares in car retailers. We now know that the supply difficulties haven't really had any impact, as margins have increased - makes sense really doesn't it? If supply is constrained, then you don't need to offer discounts to customers.

My sector pick remains Vertu Motors (LON:VTU) (in which I hold a long position). But Marshalls looks an excellent choice too. I don't think there's a lot to choose between the listed car retailers actually.

Consumers seem happy to shell out on big ticket items like cars & houses. So again, I'm scratching my head as to why the media keep telling us that everything is doom & gloom, when it isn't? The answer could be that the pressure on the High Street from internet migration of sales, is dominating the headlines. The negatives get reported, but the positives (of booming sales at internet companies) doesn't get reported.

As regards cars, the market has totally changed in recent years. Most sales are not sales, they're leases - which are available at very attractive prices - e.g. brand new Mercs for £259 per month (plus a deposit). It makes more sense to run a brand new, leased car, than some old jalopy that's costing a fortune in repair bills. For this reason, I'm positive about the prospects for car dealer shares - and they're so cheap right now.

Downside risk? As always, it's supply chaos if Brexit goes wrong. That would only be temporary though. Overall then, this looks a good buying opportunity to me - things are improving (a lot, by the sounds of it), but the stock market hasn't reacted much yet."

[jeff h] 14/11/2018 20:27

Edison update:-

[edmundshaw] 14/11/2018 20:12

High level of short term credit? What, more than other car dealerships? How much in-house financing do you think MMH do?

And as for thin margin, MMH has a better gross margin than either Lookers or Pendragon (the only two I checked), at 11.5%, by over 0.5%.

Yet MMH is at a discount to these (currently) larger dealerships, and arguably better run.

[lefrene] 14/11/2018 16:01

I guess it's the high level of short term credit that MMH carries that keeps the share price down? A high turnover, thin margin model that might see the holding value of the stock decline if rates were to rise. Which I suppose would see the creditors get nervous. I was drawn to this by it being apparently such a bargain, it seems very well run, but I'm not going to be tempted. I do hope it does well for those who hold.

[jaf111] 14/11/2018 15:19

Meant to mention earlier.....congrats to the shrewdies who bought in last week.....
Obviously nothing untoward.......

[jeff h] 14/11/2018 14:41

CEO Daksh Gupta trading update:-

[jaf111] 14/11/2018 12:41

Agreed dangersimpson2

I remain very frustrated with MMH....as I expected it continues to significantly outperform yet as you say its share price continues to languish both in absolute and relative terms....

Patience is a great virtue!

[dangersimpson2] 14/11/2018 11:14

Shows that quality management & long-term-focused, family-owned structure matter, especially in difficult market conditions. This should be on a premium to the sector given its recent out-performance not a discount.

[davebowler] 14/11/2018 10:42

Zeus;
Trading update & EPS upgrade
We note the unscheduled trading update released this morning by Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH), confirming better than expected trading in the used car market. Together with continued growth in the aftersales business and strong operational initiatives this is driving growth in underlying PBT vs 2017A. As a result, the company now expects adj. PBT in 2018E to be ahead of 2017 (continuing basis). We update our forecasts accordingly to reflect this, which triggers a 14% upgrade to our previously below consensus estimates. We leave forecasts for 2019E and 2020E unchanged reflecting the current uncertainty heading into next year and remain cautious at this juncture as we await further clarity over Brexit. The valuation on our cautious assumptions from 2019E continue to look compelling to us, particularly in the context of its balance sheet, dividend yield and strong anticipated FCF.

§ Trading update: MMH has this morning confirmed that trading patterns over October were leading to a better than anticipated outturn for FY 2018. The key reasons behind this was growth in used volumes being ahead, backed with strong margins, paired with further revenue growth in the aftersales business against weak YOY comparatives during H2 to date. The company now expects adj. PBT to be ahead of last year on a continuing basis. In line with our industry thesis, WLTP and the resultant supply pressure continues to impact the group’s new car business, albeit the supply shortage created in the used market as a result has provided a positive environment for used car margins.

§ Impact on forecasts: We upgrade our 2018E adj. PBT to reflect a stronger used car margin performance driven by higher residual values and higher volumes. We now expect adj. PBT in 2018E of £25.5m (vs £22.3m previously). We leave 2019E and 2020E unchanged reflecting our longer-term industry thesis and the risks inherent in the ongoing Brexit negotiations, general political uncertainty in the UK, uncertain outlook for OEM behaviour and ongoing industry wide cost pressures. Based on our trading assumptions for 2018E we now expect net debt at year end of £3.5m (from £5.9m) going to £1.3m net cash in 2019E (net debt of £1.1m).

§ Valuation: Based on our updated forecasts, the group is trading on a P/E of 5.9x in 2018E and an EV/EBITDA of 2.9x. The group has >£100m of freehold and long leasehold assets on the balance sheet providing strong asset backing. This is supported by progressive dividend yield in approaching 5%, and we also anticipate FCF generation of c£10m per annum from 2019 following significant capital expenditure undertaken in recent years, which also looks attractive to us in the context of the current share price. While MMH is not immune to current industry pressures, it does have a solid track record of industry and M&A outperformance particularly in used cars, which is reassuring going into 2019 and beyond.

[edmundshaw] 14/11/2018 09:24

Seems Mr. M has stumbled, bleary-eyed, out of bed now, put on his top hat and eaten his kippers. What WAS he up to last night? Anyway, yes, now finally awake and MMH up.

[this_is_me] 14/11/2018 09:04

MMH is thinly traded so 6% up when the market is 1% down isn't bad for an immediate reaction.

[edmundshaw] 14/11/2018 08:10

And the Mr Market reaction to this excellent piece of news? "Derrr, it's cold out there, I am staying under the duvet".

[wyken] 09/11/2018 23:11

Somebody realising the ridiculous under valuation

[jimbox1] 09/11/2018 17:38

A good bump up today. Is something brewing?

[s34icknote] 16/10/2018 14:46

Decided to have a nibble at 135p .Mm now want 140p .Sicknote

[edmundshaw] 16/10/2018 10:32

Welcome. I hope you will be very happy here :-)

[catscats] 16/10/2018 10:12

new to this share - looks like a steal - so have dipped my toe in the water...

[yf23_1] 15/10/2018 16:20

Yes, its getting silly now.

[edmundshaw] 15/10/2018 15:17

Does seem very VERY cheap given 1) very good management track record 2) decent medium term outlook 3) asset-rich balance sheet (consider what an acquirer would be prepared to pay for the freeholds and the other assets quite apart from the profitable business!) and lastly the EPS and yield.

Are privately owned cars really about to go out of fashion? I don't think so any time soon. It will take a big change in mentality for a significant number of people to switch to hiring cars more frequently as opposed to owning them. As for autonomous, that is still decades away from actually happening.

Excepting the end of private car ownership, this company is a crazy price.

[death by donut] 30/9/2018 11:18

Do they own the Cherry Hinton site too or is it leasehold? Only wondered given the new build residential leasehold situ going on at the mo.DbD