Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 17/12/2014 18:09

i think there was some problem with the bb because i was getting alerts for messages but when i looked there was nothing there.

i topped up today. huge drop in recent weeks since the strong results. not to worried about the broken furnace.

anyone got any opinions? looks we went down with the oil stocks

[bouleversee] 16/12/2014 16:09

They've all committed suicide. What's to say, anyway?

[outfly] 16/12/2014 15:54

Wow, more than two months with not comments on this board, not even a word about the drop.

[leecoyote] 17/10/2014 18:51

TPB - I'd go for 210/220p

[tpaulbeaumont] 17/10/2014 16:17

72p seems very pessimistic, 145 looks like nearer possible support

[deans] 08/10/2014 11:37

Positive RNS.

[sanks] 03/10/2014 17:11

I'm gonna buy some at 27p...its heading in that direction..Sheila told
me last night.

Sensible comments appreciated

[casholaa] 03/10/2014 16:07

Would you buy it?

[mj19] 03/10/2014 15:52

Glencore should just buy this out, cheaper than chips..

[bouleversee] 03/10/2014 15:37

Over-supply or under-demand? Has production increased massively over-all or has demand fallen, in which case could this not turn round as people need new cars etc? What else is it used for apart from jewellery and catalytic converters?

Long term holder, clutching at straws.

[mj19] 03/10/2014 12:02

Question mark hangs over Lonmin future
David McKay | Fri, 03 Oct 2014 10:58
[miningmx.com] – ON the evidence of the recent performance of the platinum price, the prospect of production expansions from Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), albeit cheaper output, is the last thing the market needs.
The price of platinum sank to an all-year low of $1,240/oz in Hong Kong trade today which is approaching levels last see during the world economic crisis of 2008.
Since the middle of August, the share prices of Amplats, Impala Platinum and Lonmin have all lost about a quarter of their value (between 23% and 27% with Amplats hit the hardest).
Despite the metal and share price weakness, and the fact that they were unified in forecasting the need to restructure during the five-and-a-half month strike waged by AMCU, the platinum firms seem to be sitting it out.
Amplats’ plans to sell its Rustenburg shafts seems to be making slow progress while Implats has stuck to its plans to produce 850,000 oz/year from its Lease Area.
As for Lonmin, there’s talk it hasn’t fully explained the impact of the AMCU strike and current market on its operations.
“There’s real concern about the company’s cash situation,” said one former platinum boss. “Implats and Amplats have probably said as much as they can about their situation, but Lonmin has kept things close to its chest,” he said.
A report by Liberum Capital, quoted in BDLive, said matters couldn’t be worse for Lonmin. “In the short term, we do not see how much worse Lonmin’s situation could get,” said analysts Ben Davis and Richard Knights.
They listed Lonmin’s problems as “a collapsing platinum price, accusations of tax evasion, a BEE partner with funding shortfalls and its largest shareholder looking to exit”.
According to Goldman Sachs, however, Lonmin has been oversold. It believes difficulties imputed to its production recovery following the strike have been over-played. The bank also thinks Lonmin will be cash positive by the end of its financial year.
Production will reach 750,000 ounces in its 2015 financial year and it will have a net cash position of $100m by the year of the current year, it said in a recent report by its analyst, Eugene King.
As for its strategic options, Goldman Sachs thinks 25% shareholder Glencore could play an important part in its future.
It has suggested Lonmin could be ‘merged’ with Eland Platinum, a 100,000 oz/year producer it also owns in order to share costs. Glencore has also stated its intention to sell Lonmin which would create “multiple opportunities” for Lonmin, it said.
Investec Securities is also optimistic about the stock, but slightly more measured. “There is scope for the stock to rise further, but we retain a cautious outlook and wait to see progress with the ramp-up and more detail on the recovery plan,” it said.
The uncertainty about the prospects for Lonmin were perhaps most visibly displayed following media speculation it may axe 5,700 jobs out of some 26,000 employed which would have made heavy in-roads into production.
The market took it seriously, but not in a way you’d immediately expect. Shares in the company gained 7% before Lonmin threw cold water on the speculation, although it was somewhat ambivalent about its ultimate plans.
“As we have said ... restructuring is inevitable because of the five month strike, but until we reach steady state production we cannot assess the extent of the restructuring, if it is at all necessary,” Sue Vey, Lonmin spokeswoman, was quoted by Business Day to have said.
So is Lonmin going to restructure or not?
The response to the market speculation suggests that investors feel Lonmin, as well as Implats and Amplats all should restructure; which is to say, produce less platinum in the future.
The fact of the matter is that the platinum price is still heavily influenced by fears of further over-supply; in lieu of industry restructuring, the metal’s price was expected to trade in close correlation with gold, said Goldman Sachs.
“As newsflow around ramp-up [of production after the AMCU strike] picks up, we expect platinum to grind down slowly and settle around the marginal cost of production - $1,400/oz,” it said. An increase in the platinum price by 5% to 6% was forecast in 2015, depending on the rand/dollar exchange rate.
According to Macquarie Research, however, improved metal prices may not swiftly come to the assistance of the listed platinum producers.
“While we expect that higher metal prices and a recovery in production will drive earnings higher in the platinum sector over the next three years we believe these recoveries, and more, are already reflected in the platinum company share prices,” it said in a recent report dated September 25 before shares in Amplats lost 6.3%.
Some analysts think it’s better investors look elsewhere in the sector towards mining companies with significant mechanisation such as Platinum Group Metals, a Toronto-listed firm, or where the orebody is high quality such as Royal Bafokeng Platinum

[dealy] 03/10/2014 10:44

this looks like a capitulation job. same with tesco by the way. periodically UK fund managers start to believe that businesses are totally incapable of ever making money. we are going through one of those capitulaton periods now imo - especially in commodity related stocks.

[m w] 02/10/2014 08:29

Most are loss making

[bernieboy] 02/10/2014 08:12

Salpara why do they need to start shutting down shafts? Thanks.

[salpara111] 01/10/2014 14:41

Debt situation at POG was much worse than here but that is not to say that LMI are not in trouble. Sooner or later they are going to have to start shutting down shafts regardless of the political pressure that will come from the S.African government.

[pictureframe] 01/10/2014 13:44

Well wish you all luck - took a big loss. I thought £2.30 buy was a decent entry but there appears to be no support for this. I have seen this once too often (POG). Now I am out its bound to bounce.

[salpara111] 01/10/2014 13:42

Platinum in freefall so no real surprise.

[pictureframe] 01/10/2014 12:36

what a pile of poo this is

[leecoyote] 28/9/2014 10:41

Gobsmacking revelations on the CFD industry -

[casholaa] 27/9/2014 22:59

155-160p I reckon. Revenue, dilution + unions know they have them beat.

[mj19] 27/9/2014 11:40

When will this beating stop