Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[lazyhisnibs] 12/3/2015 14:18

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/lonmin-shares-fall-to-lowest-in-17-years-1.1830698#.VQGfz5WJjIU

hxxp://www.salabournews.co.za/index.php/press-releases/23507-num-to-raise-bar-with-its-gold-mine-wage-demand.html

[dealy] 12/3/2015 10:12

that's the current plan but they could still sell the block if they got a good price. it's up to the discretion of the management. and the fact that this has won't occur until May could be just a way of flushing out a bid for the whole block.

[careful] 12/3/2015 09:57

i thought glen was distributing its stake to its own shareholders.
because it could not get a sensible offer.

[dealy] 12/3/2015 09:05

The update in January talked about production being the highest since March 2007. Revenue is forecast for 1.6 billion GBP this year. This is not a mickey mouse company. And whilst it might have to tap into its facilities along the way it does not have net debt.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Glencore stake is being offered as a block in the market and shorters are knocking the price down to force a reduced price.

I think we will see 150p again in the next 3 months.

[careful] 12/3/2015 09:04

good to see a different colour today.

[lazyhisnibs] 11/3/2015 16:09

Impala Platinum (Implats) has problems of its own and the largest, Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) has been trying to effectively sell itself so Anglo Platinum can be rid of them since sometime last year. No one wants to pay a going concern price.

As if the platinum price wasn't enough the rumour mill may be giving this a shove.

[dealy] 11/3/2015 15:44

No matter what way you present this this has been a horrific sell off on what was effectively no news (no industry news, no company specific news).

It begs the question: why doesn' the number 2 platinum producer buy the number 3 at a very low valuation to become number 1?

Time for the investment bankers to do something other than short the euro.

[salpara111] 11/3/2015 13:45

If you think it cant go any lower may I refer you to that other listed Platinum Miner, Aquarius Platinum (AQP)whose share price has dropped from over £4 to 10p in the last 5 years.
What I am saying is that yes, the share price can go lower.....I am not saying that it will but it can!

[lazyhisnibs] 11/3/2015 13:43

If any of the big three on the, so called, Platinum Belt stopped producing forever tomorrow I doubt, at this time, platinum prices would stage a sustainable recovery.

[dealy] 11/3/2015 13:12

it would still cost a lot of money to build a competitor to Lonmin. The infrastructure, the manpower, the processes, the licenses, the stock on hand, the equipment.

Current market cap is insanely low. Markets are impossible sometimes.

[karmastuartra] 11/3/2015 13:00

Due a rebound of some sorts anyway.

[careful] 11/3/2015 12:42

with a market cap of just £638m it must be worth a look for a sector in need of consolidation.

[karmastuartra] 11/3/2015 12:39

Blue finish?

[karmastuartra] 11/3/2015 12:38

Rebound on the cards.

[ukgeorge] 11/3/2015 11:43

platinum is in over supply, these are the worst producer in SA, and are likely to be looking to raise capital

[lazyhisnibs] 10/3/2015 19:03

US QE was more aggressive and went on for more than half a decade having started in December 2008. If memory serves for most of that time the recources/materials equities sector underperformed all other sectors and in most cases by a wide margin.

Eurozone QE should help exports which should help platinum but isn't it the manufacturing of cars with catalytic converters in Europe for the domestic European market which will robustly help platinum demand?

If you're waiting on EZ QE to turn this one you might be waiting a long time.

Meanwhile there's a lot of SA specific stuff which has, is and will impact here like the mining act that has been sent back for a re-work and is unlikely to be dramatically less capital unfriendly than the first draft.

Some are looking ahead at the car lights approaching from the far distance and are not hearing the articulated lorry with a tired driver weaving across the road and approaching bloody fast from behind.

PS: I'm not saying there won't be bounces in the share prices after falls like this and at such pace. I'll leave that to the TA types to figure out.

[dealy] 10/3/2015 18:02

i only just noticed now that they gave a postive operational update today about the furnace!

what the hell is going on here?! Trading worse than when Lehmans went bust. This is crazy. QE is supposed to release capital for investment. Looking at the commodities sectors and small caps sectors in the UK the exact opposite is happening!

[dealy] 10/3/2015 13:07

and long negative yielding government bonds of course as well

[dealy] 10/3/2015 13:06

looks like a huge macro trade of long USD and short commodity producers.

[careful] 10/3/2015 12:31

it is not alone today.
try tlw and many others.

[karmastuartra] 10/3/2015 12:29

Keeping well clear!

[dealy] 10/3/2015 12:03

There must be something going on. This is in free fall. Why now?

[lazyhisnibs] 10/3/2015 09:26

dealy,

You mentioned most of my list of stuff being in the price. That's probably true but aside from Glen's decision a few things have come in to sharper focus in the last month or so.

IR - The Implats links I posted to my mind increase the chances of another flashpoint sometime this year despite the recently negotiated wage agreements.

European and Chinese data isn't all bad but the danger of deflation in the former is more and more coming to the fore and Chinese data got a bit worse at the weekend.

Load shedding - for domestic users the situation has actually improved. I don't know about industrial.

Oil: the lower price is still helping but in SA's budget a couple of weeks ago two thirds of the decrease in pump prices was taken back in tax. This will impact costs at the mines too especially if the oil prices head back to the seventies.

The dollar is stronger than a month ago, platinum lower and those trends persist.






Perhaps mistakenly I don't short so this is just a curiosity and painful memory for me now. Perhaps a skilled few can get ahead of turn points but that's not something I'm good at. Good luck if you're still in. The short you mentioned might be what some long traders try to play given that all shorts have to be covered eventually.

PS: But the pace of the descent doesn't make sense unless it is bandwagoning. Perhaps the Glen penny has well and truly dropped but still, ....Wow!

[dealy] 10/3/2015 09:13

The market is implying that the company cannot make £30m profit on a normalised basis. That is way too pessimistic. Time for some M&A activity to start in the sector. What are all the investments bankers doing?