Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[dealy] 26/9/2014 10:01

thanks Baron. very helpful.

we are in a bear market for small/mid caps and commodity stocks so any bad news just hammers stocks.

[baron83] 25/9/2014 16:56

Comments from Goldman Sachs today.

Allegation of tax evasion denied; +VE

News
Lonmin has denied allegations contained in recent media reports published by the Mail & Guardian and supported by the Alternative Information and Development Centre (AIDC) economist Dirk Forslund that the platinum producer had shifted profits to low-tax operations at which there was little genuine commercial activity in a bid to avoid tax payments.

Analysis
The claim against Lonmin is that the company between 2008-12 transferred R1.2 bn in commission fees to Western Metals sales while a further R1.2 bn was paid in management fees. The amounts were shifted so it could be
kept away from financing wage demands, social labour commitments or so it won't be absorbed in taxable income.
Lonmin has denied these claims and said that they were false and misleading and that the company paid tax fully and properly in all jurisdictions in which it operated.

We believe that the recent underperformance on this news and concerns around the balance sheet is unwarranted. We remain CL-Buy on the stock (last close: 192.5p), our thesis being: (1) No threat to balance sheet: We
see no threat to the balance sheet and on our commodity price deck the company begins to generate FCF from FY15. Even at the spot basket price, we see no risk to the balance sheet; (2) FY14 results and FY15 guidance:
We see upside risk to FY14 guidance of 420koz of saleable platinum and believe that FY15 guidance could be raised and (3) Strategic options: Glencore, which holds a 25% stake in Lonmin, could sell its stake if it gets a
premium offer.

Implications
We believe that these claims are baseless and as such see the recent underperformance as unwarranted.

GLA

twitter: @barondaytrading

[pictureframe] 25/9/2014 12:25

down again - waiting for close

[dealy] 24/9/2014 22:28

Investec and Old Mutual added to large existing holdings in recent days. It wouldn't surprise me if some commodity focused funds are selling all such stocks due to redemptions. The 20% fall this month has occured on pretty low volume - maybe just 2% of all shares changing hands.

could bounce very soon imo

[casholaa] 24/9/2014 10:44

I got stopped out -at a loss.

[pixi] 24/9/2014 09:33

I guess we'll have to wait for the next update.

[salpara111] 23/9/2014 22:59

Price of Platinum is plummeting, after the strikes and huge pay rises I would imagine that most of their operations are currently loss making but they find themselves is a very difficult political position as the S.African government is going to ensure that they continue to run their loss making business. The idea of closing down unprofitable shafts simply wont be tolerated.

[pixi] 23/9/2014 21:50

Sorry to hear that, I guess it's down to lack of news and weak market. I saw Old Mutual holdings and decided to buy yesterday and today, averaging 200, for the long-term.

[pictureframe] 23/9/2014 21:32

Just but if it closes under £1.90 then im out with a big loss ;0(

[pixi] 23/9/2014 21:08

Anyone in here?

[dealy] 23/9/2014 18:06

down 20% in 2 weeks. what on earth is going on?

[mj19] 18/9/2014 19:16

Isn't the next update in Nov?

[justthemoney] 18/9/2014 18:14

Giving money away, so far around $100m.

[justthemoney] 18/9/2014 12:08

It may go down a bit lower. USD is strong, Southafrican vice president quitting LMI and other 9 companies' boards. Will wait for the update later this month.

[mj19] 18/9/2014 10:52

Looks like many are shorting this right down

hxxp://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=3791510398001

[justthemoney] 28/8/2014 13:20

Today's fall is on the back of Impala profit warning. Stock wants
to go up, but there are several competing factors in the
equitation. By the end of September it should get upward traction
providing no more trouble from employees.

[justthemoney] 13/8/2014 09:44

Heading up... Playing political games now related to the massacre two years ago. A former LMI office holder is apparently under investigation, nothing to do with the company any more. fundamentals are good and are getting better. Eventually share price will reflect that.

[mj19] 12/8/2014 22:42

Where is this heading now ? Was all looking up

[the skipper] 08/8/2014 18:08

Let's see what next week holds, eh? One year platinum chart looks much more convincing than gold to me and with the strike over confidence should return here imo.

[buywell2] 08/8/2014 17:06

Chart has just put in a double bottom

But it ain't out of the woods yet

[the skipper] 08/8/2014 16:53

Movement pretty much as expected today, with a strong finish, so I added another 1500. Should test 240 early next week imo, maybe meet a little resistance just above that and then rock on from there provided price of platinum holds up.

Good luck all

[the skipper] 07/8/2014 19:22

With a double bottom on the chart and the price of platinum now out performing gold this has the makings of a great recovery play imo. The one year chart for the metal now has a clear price channel here: and will look even better when updated to take account of the current price of $1473 an ounce.

Opened position with 2000 shares today and will add as the recovery gathers momentum.

[justthemoney] 06/8/2014 10:42

Topped up here. 150p is absolute bottom if things go wrong, 400p top within 12 months. Short term next upswing 250-280p.

[mj19] 25/7/2014 17:41

back in.. hope we are ok now

[pictureframe] 25/7/2014 10:42

No need for fundraising and back to 80% production by September 14.