Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[lazyhisnibs] 27/11/2015 09:33

hxxp://www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/stockwatch/2015/11/26/stock-watch-part-1

After about eleven minutes of the vid at the above link a couple of analysts and the interviewer discuss the moves by Lonmin on the JSE yesterday. It sounded excessively volatile, beyond hectic. Some day traders making lots of money while others lose lots of it is one thing they opined.

They discuss it for just a couple of minutes perhaps three and short covering was the prime suspect for the volatility in their views.

NB: The vid is dated yesterday. It's filmed in the evening and posted to site the next morning as in this morning for the link above. The show is split in to two vids and this is the first part. At the end of part two (which link is on the BDTV site obviously) in response to a viewer's question one analyst almost punts it for high risk traders.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 09:22

"A change of ownership is a foot here. That is to be entirely expected with all that has gone on in the last 18 months."



Says it all.......

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 09:21

"What a wonderful piece of journalism. Kagiso doing deals but doesn't want to comment until after the 10th, PIC's no fat finger sale of 1%, Old Mutual offloading (to who?). Funny that, do you think PIC and Kagiso and a couple of others have all met for coffee and this is the masterplan. I do."

"Oh what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive"

[chrisbr777] 27/11/2015 09:19

Maybe my broker was referring to Elvis.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 09:18

Voted against their rights (but 88% did not), wonderful.

That's their speak for we want a better deal, if you want us out, we'll go at the right price to someone who wants in but we won't say to who until after the 10th, but the Fin24 still got a comment out of them, just couldn't put 2+2 together.

Remember Magara and Co met with their Top 20 shareholders before the vote. I said they would look him and others in the eye before they signed the cheque, well seems someone else is going to do it now, but they helped put a marker down for a better deal for all.

A change of ownership is a foot here. That is to be entirely expected with all that has gone on in the last 18 months.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 09:13

"He is of the opinion that post rights people will be desperate to offload these shares and will quite easily drop to 1p."

I suspect that rights holders may not take up rights and selling by the underwriters may take it below 1p.

Why would you take up rights by paying 1p and then sell then straight away for 1p?

BUT, common sense does not seem to prevail where Lonmin is involved.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 09:12

Keep it up Viking crusader Graham, take a read of Post 7091.
Thanks for posting it, called an own goal by you.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 09:10

Indeed, the Fin24 journalist has done everyone a favour here, a huge one. Firstly she lacked the knowledge that if it goes >30% (taken as anyone doing deals together), then this leads to a takeover offer.
---------------------
The PIC will own up to 32% of Lonmin, since it not only underwrote its own 7% but also an additional 25% of the rights issue.

Lonmin’s pool of shareholders will also shift from mostly long-term investors like pension funds to speculators like hedge funds. Together with the PIC’s 7%, Kagiso Investments also owned 7%, but Kagiso voted against the rights issue at the shareholders’ meeting in London on Thursday.

A spokesperson for Kagiso, Vera von Lieres, says the company is not going to say anything about the rights issue before the process is finalised on December 10 as the company wants to do transactions with Lonmin shares in the meantime. This shows clearly that Kagiso is going to sell its interest in Lonmin.
-----------------------
What a wonderful piece of journalism. Kagiso doing deals but doesn't want to comment until after the 10th, PIC's no fat finger sale of 1%, Old Mutual offloading (to who?). Funny that, do you think PIC and Kagiso and a couple of others have all met for coffee and this is the masterplan. I do.
-----------------------

[chrisbr777] 27/11/2015 09:07

Just spoken with my broker (who is actually part of one of the investment banks involved in this). He is of the opinion that post rights people will be desperate to offload these shares and will quite easily drop to 1p. Therefore for me it justifies having to wait until the dust settles before looking at Lonmin again.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 09:02

Who knows Graham, something is a foot.

I haven't read your Kagiso article yet, but all this suggests to me, somewhere this company is going through a change of ownership. I don't think someone at PIC was fat fingered and suddenly sold 1% of shares so they could put £50k ish in the bank. All very intentional.

As for 25% or 75%, the take up will either end somewhere at the 70% mark for Plan A or 90%+ for Plan B.

Your Viking theories suggest 0%. Priceless as you would say.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 08:49

Must be embarrassing to be found out in the way you have been Graham, pride must have taken a dent. Having Chris as your wingman can't help, he just amplifies it '000 times over. Suggest you have a word with him, he's currently somewhere in the Loony Bin.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 08:46

Graham, any involvement by UKTOP will be in accordance with their formal operating procedures. I think on their website it says somewhere they don't enter into one and one correspondence with people, particularly where any UK Plc is involved. They are currently considering, amongst many, a big transaction, the SAB Miller takeover.

If they did, it would allow clowns like you to put your own spin on things, on a website that some but only a very small fraction of shareholders will look at. Such titillation that you get from that could then spiral. You would probably then send it to a bunch of journalists or maybe even the Daily Mail.

I've spotted your trap they will too but their procedures make it easy. Just don't enter into correspondence with him. Total tool Graham, just like your 20% Beat The Market idea from yesterday.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 08:32

"You've maybe had lots of responses Graham but on this one you won't get a reply because it would prejudice other shareholders"

Exactly why would a response "prejudice other shareholders"

Please feel free to explain.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 08:31

How the maths lessons coming on Graham, any major malfunctions today?

You went quiet yesterday on that when you were found out .... Graham's "beat HHS market by 20% ideas". Another example of being Caught with your Pants down. Trying to tell others, well at least you live up to your name of "I'll Bet a Buck", seems you lost on this one, 20% plus!

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 08:30

"I'm for fair to all shareholders all round the world, not behave like some Viking like crusader who gets a fetish posting forever negativity."

Did not seem to be getting much support for your 'theories' on the LSE fora.

Best of luck with that.... ;-)

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 08:29

"Why would anybody would be buying Lonmin (LON) on the JSE at ZAR 85c today when they could get the same share for ZAR 1c (right) plus ZAR 21c on Dec 10th? Anyone but Elvis. I need a well thought out opinion."

A couple of options....

1.

It would be easy for 'someone' to buy the LMI to perhaps give support to the LMIN (or the JSE equivs). This 'could' be the reason for the increase. Given 46-1 buying the 1 does give you pretty good leverage if this was your aim.

2.

There could have been a short squeeze, but I can't imagine that it would have held up for this long.

I'm with option one, someone is buying LMI to prop up LMIN, i.e. encourage buyers of the null paids.

The same 'may' be happening here (LSE) to a lesser extent.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 08:25

You've maybe had lots of responses Graham but on this one you won't get a reply because it would prejudice other shareholders .... Graham the crusader trying to stop people investing in Lonmin so puts something on ADVFN. To think you will get a response from an organisation like UKTOP, let alone think they won't see the trap you are trying to set for them and others is low Graham.

I'm for fair to all shareholders all round the world, not behave like some Viking like crusader who gets a fetish posting forever negativity.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 08:23

Elvis appears to have moved over to LSE fora, where she appears to be preaching her RI skills. With little success I might add. ;-)

....priceless

[chrisbr777] 27/11/2015 08:21

Why would anybody would be buying Lonmin (LON) on the JSE at ZAR 85c today when they could get the same share for ZAR 1c (right) plus ZAR 21c on Dec 10th? Anyone but Elvis. I need a well thought out opinion.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 07:55

LONMIN PLC Jane Street Group, LLC 1.19% ↑ 0.34% 2015-11-24

Increasing their short position.....