Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 17:29

Boulversee re Post 6844. That was aimed at me, I know it was, but I have no problem with that. Whether you want to be aware or not, Graham can give practical advice, but he is tireless in his pantomine attitude to Lonmin.

It's had a hard time in the past, has asked for a lot of money on several occasions and it may (or may not) do so again or this may be its turning moment. Graham is known as "I'll Bet a Buck" on another website. There are a lot of disguised posters on these websites.

To me everyone should make their own decision as I am sure you will do.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 17:23

Graham re 6838. You're such a Plonker as well as Scaremonger.
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Bad take up is 35% like in Petropavolsk, 65% were left in underwriters, sub-underwriters and bondholders.

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Here the facts are much different. If those 54% who voted Yes, only needs 16-21% more to buy then underwriters already have a buyer or buyers in PIC for the remainder. I'd be happy if that 16-21% was even half that, others want to sub-underwrite. Buyers already in place and only 1% rights volumes being traded per day. So either 65-70% or 90%+ I'm happy with, as will be others.

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 17:13

lazy...

The broker's letter said: holding 16744; share entitlement 16744; cost 167.44 and verbally said I was due to 46 rights for every share I hold and 1 right would entitle me to l new share at a cost of 1p per share. I already new all that but of course my existing holding is only 364 not what they said.

Elvis -

Not for you to apologise for Graham. Although I'd love it if he were wrong and you were right, his does seem to be the majority opinion and at least he expresses his views in a logical and sensible fashion, without abusing anyone or talking nonsense, unlike someone I could mention.

Graham -

I dare say you will be proved right. I was just hoping others would come forward with contrary views. Some other dogs I have held have come good in the end (n.b. Victoria plc which has gone up 500% as well as returning all my purchase price in the past 3 years; I thought it was on the way out just before that. Others, e.g. Marconi/GEC and Anglo Irish Bank have not and by holding on for a recovery I have lost all or most of my money. I am absolutely hopeless when it comes to cutting my losses and always leave it too late.

Do I gather the price of Platinum is picking up? Do you think that will make any difference to the LMI issue, Graham?

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 17:02

It's also on YouTube.....

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 16:55

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/tonight/news/local/watch-the-marikana-film-1.1950128#.VlXnoPnhCHt

The award winning documentary, you can watch it online. Well worth it if you intend to invest here.

Industrial relations and all that......

[lazyhisnibs] 25/11/2015 16:40

bouleversee,

Did your broker give you a breakdown on what that amount was getting you? How many shares you have now, how many rights you have ... that sort of thing. It seems a very modest amount they are asking you to put in presumably to follow your 46 rights for each share that you have.

On here you have Elvis and Kojak who are holding and the rest of us who are broadly negative. It could be argued that most if not all have an agenda.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 16:37

"As for rights take up, 70% will be fine."

Do some research, low take up; and by low I mean less than 90%; means a low share price and a overhang of shares that may take months to shift.

70% is not fine, it would be a disaster.

Put it this way.

shares @ 1p what do you think is going to happen if they aren't all taken up by rights holders?

The underwriters get them, yes?

Well those underwriters that got paid $26million. then have to buy whats left.

So how much does 30% of the RI cost, about $133million?

So, how much would the underwriters dump the purchased stock for and still make a nice profit?

Clearly they won't want to keep it, will they.

Let's say that they are happy with $13million profit? so that leaves room to flog the shares at a nice 10% discount. Gives them some breathing room, you might say.

...and you expect a premium after the RI?

Elvis, 'pray' that the take up of rights is well over 90%...... ;-)

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 16:36

bouleversee. May I apologise on behalf of this BB regarding Graham. As you will see from many of my tireless exchanges with him, he is very hard work!

[brahmsnliszt] 25/11/2015 16:34

pt pd rally hard - at least pd has due to russia's gokhran announcing stockpiling pt and pd

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 16:33

Graham -

I AM the wife. Husband is very ill and won't get any better so I am struggling on my own with finances etc. as well as being his carer. Fat chance of going anywhere for lunch. LMI RI not the only thing that sucks. Two lossmaking takeovers (with gaps in records) to sort out as well.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 16:32

Graham, you're not listening again, re your Post 6822
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"Regardless, the RI looks like it has been badly received. When they total it all up they will get their cash, but what will happen to the share price. If the underwriters get a huge stake, they will have to sell it. This will no doubt depress prices for a while. Even if they do not sell it immediately, it will put a lid on the price until they do".
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If those who voted Yes take up the rights (reasonable assumption, if not 54% II's total will do), only needs another 15% to say "go on then, I'll take mine up". If the other 30% say "stuff it, I'm selling them", guess who walks in? PIC and his mates....
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Not going to happen, like the vote, there will be a big take up!

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 16:22

Naughty naughty Graham!

I've just given you some credit in Post 6830. Your assuming the 46% who didn't vote would all have voted No. Split the difference then, 77% Yes if you want it that way. As for rights take up, 70% will be fine.

Read between the lines ..... if PIC and their mates get >30%, it's a mandatory takeover offer. You can't argue with the long arm of the law!

[ginty the brave] 25/11/2015 16:21

My Goodness. The Platinum Price has gone Positive.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 16:20

"I would have to cough up only £167.44 but my holding of 364 shares"

THIS IS NOT ADVICE.......

What I would do is keep the £167.44 and take my wife out for a 'LONMIN'S RIGHTS ISSUE SUCKS' lunch. ;-)

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 16:18

Graham, indeed for once you are correct on Post 6827. However, did you predict the LMIN would go to 0.025p 3 days later and it will stay there? It will head back to 0.19p TERP I think, maybe slightly lower due to Pt price, but also maybe higher if people want to pile in near the end.

You're struggling with your arguments that there will not be high take up with this offer. I'd be happy with even about 70% then PIC and their mates will make their move!

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 16:16

"He fails to mention that the vote got 88% and that's all that matters."

Excuse me, but check my post on this matter. I clearly mentioned the 88% vote.

BUT also mentioned that only 54% actually bothered to vote.

So, less than half of the shareholders 'actually' supported the RI. FACT.

As to......"that's all that matters"

Utter tosh, what if the majority don't take up their rights. Of course it matters that most did not support the RI.

Delusional....

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 16:12

Is anyone reading here taking up their rights? I really don't know what to do and a letter from Selftrade tells me that I only have till 5pm on Dec. 1 to tell them. I would have to cough up only £167.44 but my holding of 364 shares (first acquired at £27.65 in July '06 and rights issues taken up subsequently) has cost me approx. £3500, now worth practically nothing. Do I risk another small amount in the hope of recovering some of my loss or throw in the towel? My poor kids have considerably more at stake.

FWIW Digital Look on Motley Fool gives analysts' opinions as follows:

Strong buy 3; buy 0; neutral 9; sell 0; strong sell 5.

Unfortunately, my holding is in an ISA which means I can't offset the loss against some gains I have outside the ISA. Sod's law!

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 16:11

You could just have waited, and not bought any before the ex-rights date........

'I seem to remember suggesting that'

....and bought them for 47 * 0.025 = 1.175p + 47 * 1p = 48.175p for 47 shares fully paid.

As against 10.25p + 46p for rights = 56.25p

That's an 8p saving per 47 shares.

....or about 20%.

Some people never listen..... ;-)

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 16:03

Lazy, I haven't read Graham's posts yet, but will take great delight in pointing things out. Just so you are aware, Graham's handle on LSE is called "I'll Bet a Buck", that should tell you something. Doubt if he knew how to spell Lonmin a month ago!
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Anyway, regarding PIC, if PIC got and took up their extra 25%, that would put them to 32%, which would trigger a mandatory takeover offer under UK Takeover Rules if one "total" shareholder has >30%. Any "concert parties" PIC maybe involved with, e.g. hedge funds, other buyers or anyone who has lined up with them would get added to the 32% number. Consequently, taken together, they probably don't want that number. Keep it at 29.99% as a holding position.
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However whatever delightful Graham thinks, the UK Takeover Panel will be watching this and they are not a load of nonsense. Graham would like to think UK Plc is the Wild West, but it's not I'm afraid. The UK Takeover Panel will be watching carefully and if they haven't already will probably write to PIC and/or the underwriters when the RI result is out, so any intention is made clear. Magara said there are also other IIs interested in taking up more than their entitlement.
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So, assuming the 54% who voted Yes follow their rights, only needs another 21% to stop PIC getting their 25%, or 22.99% to keep PIC below 30%.
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PIC probably won't even get close to 25% but when other parties they are in bed with get added in, it could. The best RI result I think would be something like a 70% take up overall, leaving PIC and black entrepreneurs to make their move but it's probably going to be well into the 90s so strong take up that way.
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As to who you want to believe Plonker Graham predicted 75% vote may not be achieved and still bangs on about only 54% voted. He fails to mention that the vote got 88% and that's all that matters.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 15:58

"fast machines and auto calculators"

You mean a PC and Excel.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 15:47

A numbers comparison:
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On Friday when this went ex-rights, LMI opened where expected at 1.19p, went up a bit and is now pretty much where it was at on Friday. LMIN has pretty much been down all the way:
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Assuming a close price on the Thursday of 10.25p, pretty much where it was at, on Friday it opened at the 10.25 ex rights equivalent of 1.19p
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So on Friday, you would need to buy 1 LMI (1.19p) plus 46 shares (or 5.08 rights to buy 1 share, times 46), So total cost = 1.19 + (46*5.08*0.19) = 1.19p + 44.40p = 45.59. However the LMIN weren't trading at 0.19, nearer 0.13 so you would have had to buy 7.69 rights for each share, thus total cost = 1.19 + (46*7.69*0.13) = 47.17, 3% higher
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Today, LMI = 1.17p, LMIN is about 0.04p so (46*25*0.04) = 47.17. Same.
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Remarkable, ignoring spreads, cost to buy close Wednesday is the same as close Friday but 3% higher than close Thursday. All this volatility, no wonder professional traders linking LMI and LMIN need fast machines and auto calculators to keep on top of it, particularly if shorting!
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[chrisbr777] 25/11/2015 15:32

Perhaps Lonmin should become a truly global company by issuing 3 shares to each and every person on planet earth. I wonder what that shareholder meeting could look like -:) Catering could be an issue.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 15:07

"I apologise for my slowness with this stuff but just to clarify, an underwriter committed to taking 25% of the funds being raised cannot buy some of that proportion in advance?"

No.

Lets not forget, they are buying what no one else wants. They are just there to ensure that the company gets the RI cash. In effect, they take up the slack.

"The point being that they couldn't time-spread the risk of taking control and of course paying for that block of, in this case, 25%. This being because the underwriting is not done until after the 10th and therefore if they had bought, say, 10% of their commitment already and increased that to say 15% before the 10th they would still have their corporate choppers on the block for a further 25% if there was still a huge deficit in take up."

Yes, and it would not make any sense to buy the rights. They are not there to buy a stake in the company. They are there to buy the shares that are issued, if no one else buys them. Thus ensuring that Lonmin get the noted proceeds.

"If the above is as I think you are saying it is, then the fall off in the share price and rights have been without much, if any, buying in the market by them since XX."

Traders and speculators may buy, the underwriters would probably be allowed to buy, perhaps to support the price. But they would still be liable to underwrite the % they signed up to.

"Further, they probably won't do much so salvage LMI or LMIN if one or both depreciate further while those books are open as it were."

The 'professional' underwriters, may provide support to the issue, but I'm not sure as to what they would be allowed to do. Short of buying those shares not taken up by rights holders.

"As for what they do or should do if the price of LMI falls sub 1p I hear you but what a mess with the politics and all. Time would tell."

I agree, it's a bit of a mess.

I kind of wonder how it's going to play out if the price did drop below 1p.

But, I suspect that it would be quite easy to support the LMI price (given 1 to 46), and thus provide some value to the options. Far be it from me to suggest that is being done at the moment..... ;-)

[m_n_tomlinson] 25/11/2015 15:06

chrisbr777 25 Nov'15 - 14:55 - 6820 of 6820 0 0

'mntomlinson - everything is relative. Its 1p because of 27,000,000,000 shares which are being issued....'


Even that's pretty absurd too! Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic anybody? ;)