Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 20:30

Hmmm bouleversee, that's right.

Those nasty types from one of the banks did a mug them and run approach three times in about 24 hours on this share a few weeks ago. Lonmin had shot up to 40p very quickly, too quick some thought, so they set their "shorting computers" to work over about three 45 minutes intervals. Would have triggered people's "stops", which it did, but then they missed out on the upside a few minutes later as they could not reset quick enough (or know when the next wave was coming). Horrible stuff.

Price fell from about 39p to 30p, back to about 37p all over 45 minutes one lunchtime. Watched it happen on the live screens, colours flashing everywhere. Was like first night of the Gulf War. They did again two hours later then again 8am next morning. Got the price down into the 20s, and it's been downhill all the way since to 1p.

Hopefully, what's being planned now by Lonmin management / advisors will stop that. 1p shares to 0.1p rights, back up to pennies, tens of pennies, then pounds. They call it "strong capital" I believe. Ravenna calls it "confusion marketing"!

As for meals, Priscilla or Lisa Marie normally bring me something, but they are out tonight, so just about to pop something in the oven......

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 20:18

Elvis -

I do know what shorting is (and I think it's outrageous that shares should be loaned out for the purpose) and I know what a stop loss is, though I wouldn't know exactly where to set it to avoid an unwanted sale due to a temporary hiccup so I don't. Perhaps I should, with a fairly low bar. As I have said, I am not a trader, and I am not a sophisticated investor. I am also not very computer savvy and as you say, it has all got too complicated. I don't know how to set up filters etc. I know about high frequency traders though I have never been able to quite get my brain round exactly how that all works, just know it's not in my favour. I've spent far too long on all this today and am far too late getting the supper. When do you fit in your meals, Elvis?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 19:59

boulversee, got a question for you, please answer honestly ...

If someone said "shorting" or "your short", what would you associate that with? How about "stop loss"?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 19:56

Hmmm Bouleversee, they say the quietest ones are the most interesting....

Up near where I live an old lady had a £5m stash of Marks and Spencer shares that no-one knew about until after she had passed on (bar the local church warden no doubt).

The decision here on Lonmin is different whether you want to start to invest from new now or make a decision with what you've got - on the former, Graham (thinks) he has come up with a wacky way to do it via current trading prices of LMIN rights, but he never predicted that last week and probably is still not investing (unless he's busy unloading his trucks at the moment). For most things in everyday life, no-one can predict what tomorrow will bring.

Maybe Graham could take on a second career as private client adviser, don't think he'd want me as his Wing-man though!

Good luck, nice to hear your story from over the years. There are many people your age advocating what you say, just the world of high finance and dot.com has got so sophisticated and arguably out of hand.

They have these things called "high frequency traders" these days, computers that follow patterns set by super-brainy mathematicians that react in milli-seconds, before us dunces have even switched the computer on or got yesterday's Financial Times out of the postbox!

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 19:38

Elvis -

Actually, I am already a millionaire and the sum involved is not really relevant. My sprogs have rather more (must find time to find out how much!) at stake and will also be wondering what to do about their rights, as will lots of private investors. Any time now, when they have read their Selftrade letters, they will be asking me what to do. Obviously, we have to make our own decisions but I wondered what others were doing and hoped I might flush out a few more of your turn of mind.

Graham -

I started off in my dim-distant youth investing in funds; absolute disaster. 2 went bust altogether, one run by the famed and recently deceased James Slater and Peter Walker. I then had brokers; one was pretty good but he changed firms and we got stuck with someone who was hopeless so when these on-line, much cheaper brokers came along we started paddling our own canoe, with mixed results. I recently decided, with more shares to keep track of, and now no input from husband, and not enough time to monitor, I'd start buying funds again but they haven't done as well as my non-fund portfolio, which is probably down to luck more than judgement. However, I agree that the time has come to hand over to someone else.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 19:23

Lazy, I think I'll give Graham an easy night. I agree he is quite experienced in trading and investing, puts point across (even if I don't like the way he says it, he too of mine no doubt).

However, either he is a genius or me/others and the IIs are with what is due to come when everything settles down in December.

Graham argument rests on "this is a dog, Pt price and its past infamy gazzumps everything" - mine, Kojak, Dealy, Carefuls and most II's is along the lines of this is an option play where "Lonmin is under valued to its peers" or "its has nothing in its equity for its Balance Sheet"

Barclays/Investec/Macqaurie value that at 20p at moment
Deutsche at 85p

I'll make this a "be nice to Graham night tonight"

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 19:11

Gotcha, well say that then!

I bought mine averaged at just under 25p pre rights and put in another 46p
Kojak bought his I think at average of 9.5p and put in another 46p, since done some / buying selling.

You are like shopping at Tesco "Every Little Helps" - paid 48.175p for the lot but then you never predicated LMIN would fall to 0.025p (don't say you did, you're applying hindsight). Unless that truck has just delivered a truck more tonight?

As for many many others who are still in, their total cost of investment including the 46p, is well above the £1, even £2 mark I would suggest including the IIs.

[lazyhisnibs] 25/11/2015 18:59

Elvis, I'm really talking about his astuteness with assessing the situation early on which I believe rests on a fair bit of investing and trading experience.... with shares. Also, his ability to get his point across and explain things clearly.

I've seen his posts quite often over the years on 3i. There's generally more than a couple of dollops of common sense and knowledge with them.

If you're comfortable with your decisions based on your research then why not relax in to it and spend less time here? I wouldn't like to see the back of you though. Just chill a bit. I'll try to wean myself of this addictive and interesting BB yet again.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 18:58

47 * 0.025 = 1.175p + 47 * 1p = 48.175p for 47 shares fully paid.
As against 10.25p + 46p for rights = 56.25p
8p saving per 47 shares (20%)
------------------------------
Since when could you buy 47 LMI shares for 1p in the market this week? Last time I checked LMI were 1.20p, so that would add another 9.4p to your numbers, exceeds your 8p saving!

IDIOT

buy 47 rights and pay them up with 1p each.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 18:53

Lazy as for that bit about Graham "and has that rare skill combination of conciseness with clarity". You forgot to add the two words "and bulls..t" at the end!

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 18:50

Lazy re Post 6858 "Graham is perhaps the sharpest chisel in this tool box".
Check his maths that I summarised for him in Post 6859!
PMSL

[chrisbr777] 25/11/2015 18:48

Rights now at 0.028 - as predicted, worthless. LMI price will drop to 1p

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 18:46

Graham re your Post 6827, suggesting everyone wait's for today to buy rather than pre-rights. According to your maths, cost today would be:

47 * 0.025 = 1.175p + 47 * 1p = 48.175p for 47 shares fully paid.
As against 10.25p + 46p for rights = 56.25p
8p saving per 47 shares (20%)
------------------------------
Since when could you buy 47 LMI shares for 1p in the market this week? Last time I checked LMI were 1.20p, so that would add another 9.4p to your numbers, exceeds your 8p saving!
------------------------------
Never mind, everyone loves a tryer Graham!
PMSL
------------------------------
Moral of the story, if you want to spend more rather than less, listen to Graham!

[lazyhisnibs] 25/11/2015 18:45

bouleversee,

Your handle is vaguely familiar so maybe I shouldn't have asked such simple questions. I did just in case that amount wasn't enough to follow all of your rights.

Graham is perhaps the sharpest chisel in this tool box who also has that rare skill combination of conciseness with clarity. But at a relatively modest sum I would be highly tempted to follow all my rights if I was faced with your choice. For reasons you're probably aware of I would leave it to the last moment to decide though, as defined by your broker.

Thereafter, if I saw a profit on perhaps platinum having a bounce I would take it. If that looked like taking a while then after the dust had settled I would set a laugh it off stop loss.

It sounds like a bigger decision for your kids but they have youth on their side.

Any of us could be wrong but I don't see Lonmin as an investment to sit on.

PS: Platinum's gone up a bit. See below.

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 18:36

Graham -

Thanks for all your input. I will chew it over and might even toss a coin. Being a Libran I find decisions difficult as I can see both points of view. I was aware that there are too many plat. mines and some will have to go to the wall or be mothballed, unless that is India takes over where China left off.

Actually, I won't be buying any more miners. I already have quite a few, including Glencore, and they have been a disaster; bought when too high but nevertheless being recommended by so-called experts. They may all come good in the long term but I probably don't have one myself. Am rather cheesed off with investing in general. Far too time consuming, volatile and risky. I rarely invest less than £3k at a time, other than for rights issues, and I never buy lottery tickets. We did make 3300% profit on the sale of our house, admittedly after 35 years, when we downsized. How many equity investments can compare with that? Hard to know where retirees can safely put their money these days and get a decent return.

I thought I had read a couple of posts on here today that said platinum had gone up. Perhaps they were joking or I misunderstood.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 18:03

Graham, underwriters if left with shares have trading arms that would do a 'pump and dump' (get a profit), not flog them at a discount and make a profit that way.

That's not going to happen in Lonmin's case, because take up will be, in my view, either 70% mark or 90% plus.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 17:53

Boulversee, re your point "Surely they should be obliged to come up with some sort of business plan to justify it which has to be approved by some authority".

It has come up with a Business Plan (it's in the Prospectus dated 9th November), and was approved by 10 banks before they put their new bank facility forward plus another firm of technical/geology consultants called SRK.

Don't think you'll ever get any government or quasi-government authority vetting plans. Would be all too complicated, world over. As for a "look back" at what went wrong, just look at the enquiries into HBOS/RBS etc, is the world any wiser? Soon be 10 years since all that debacle, 20 years since the dot.com boom!

Ravenna who posts from Australia to this board has many strong views on these subjects!

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 17:52

Night. night.............any questions, I'll reply in the AM. ;-)

Best of luck to all, including Elvis.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 17:46

"Surely they should be obliged to come up with some sort of business plan to justify it which has to be approved by some authority. I suppose I am being naive but the millions of small investors who have saved for their old age in SIPPs or ISAs in nominee accounts cannot be expected to have the time or knowledge to wade through and understand pages and pages of impenetrable information."

Yes, of course they have a business plan, and if Platinum prices improve then they will make a profit again. BUT they have only bought themselves a couple of years to do it.

If Platinum stays where it is or even a little higher, they will need cash again in another 2-3 years.

If you are unable to do the 'homework' you may be better off investing in tracker funds or funds in an area that interests you (such as a mining fund, or a precious metals fund/ETF). Unfortunately, you cannot just buy shares and leave them in accounts, they have to be watched.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 17:43

A sense of humour Graham re Post 6850. If I'm not Elvis, your no maths teacher!

Are you Lord Lucan maybe?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 17:41

boulversee, I think one could argue the merits and demerits of the many points in your Post 6847 for months and years ahead. That's stock markets for you I guess. There are good and bad everywhere.

I think with the sums you say are involved, I'm going to politely duck out of any further advice if I may. but for sure I don't Lonmin will turn you into a millionaire any time soon!

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 17:41

"There are a lot of disguised posters on these websites"

Really, so you are actually Elvis then?

Give me strength.........

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 17:39

I should have added: especially when they never receive the information if in nominee accounts but have to search online which a lot of old people find difficult. I didn't vote re the RI because the broker didn't ask me to; it would have required an initiative from me and how do I know that my vote would have been passed on anyway? TBH I wouldn't have know which way to vote anyway.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 17:39

Clearly a rise in platinum prices will assist Lonmin with its recovery. As to picking up, I see no evidence of that.



There are many PGM miners, too many, in order for prices to recover one or more of them has to fail. Thus reducing production, thus increasing prices.

None of them seem willing to make drastic cutbacks in production. Production that increased in the response to high prices. This is the nature of commodities, all commodities.

Simply put, I have little faith that the current management of Lonmin, and the socio-economic environment in which they operate is consistent with making a good profit.

They seem too focused on employment and community support, and not on profit. The cuts they plan are too slow and not deep enough.

If you want investment exposure to mining, there are other options. If you want high risk, and a potential high reward GLEN (Glencore) would be my choice. I am invested in GLEN. Of course it is also a 'problem company'.

Regardless, given your small holding, I would not consider it worthwhile investing that amount of money in any share. The trading costs would virtually wipe out any profit.

As for cutting losses, you are not alone, PIs generally prefer taking large losses to small ones.

Regards this becoming a multi-bagger, there is always a chance, but there is also a chance that buying £167 of lottery tickets will produce a result...

....and neither make much sense.

ALL IMHO, DYOR

[bouleversee] 25/11/2015 17:30

Elvis -

I don't think tail swallowing would make any sense with the small numbers involved in my taking up my rights. I am not short of £167.44, in which case one might argue that having already lost so much, it might be worth, as a pure gamble, risking another £167 in the hope of recovering some of the loss but being resigned to the fact that it is quite possible/likely that I'd increase it instead.

As an elderly lady who is not a trader and makes no claims to being a stockmarket wizard (especially as I have held quite a number of companies where something nasty and totally unexpected has jumped out of the wardrobe), I have to say that I find it extraordinary that if a company is in a really parlous situation and a no-hoper, as is now being said about Lonmin, it should be allowed to go on raising cash through rights issues which strikes me as a sort of legalised theft. Surely they should be obliged to come up with some sort of business plan to justify it which has to be approved by some authority. I suppose I am being naive but the millions of small investors who have saved for their old age in SIPPs or ISAs in nominee accounts cannot be expected to have the time or knowledge to wade through and understand pages and pages of impenetrable information.