Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 12:05

Ravenna hadn't spotted that, but having vacationed many times at Sun City, these types are not the easiest to converse with! Maybe something to do with all their agreements they signed when they got their original fat royalties for equity swaps?

Original process was also overseen by SA Electoral Commission so they'll have a have a go at them too.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 12:02

Lazy, Pt price ain't no elephant in the room. I've explained the maths behind the webcast, Johnston Matthey's Report, how a Business Plan is put together with 10 banks (.... who guess what have heard all the noise about the Pt price ....) but Graham still wants to promote his worthless journo articles, who know even less than him on Lonmin.

Anyway if you want to call me a saddo then that's fine, but do you really think I can dream up a response each time without having done my research? At least you gave me and a couple of others the credit for staying strong under fire. Thanks.

[ravenna23] 25/11/2015 12:01

If Magara is so good why on earth did he not get a non litigation agreement from Bapo in exchange for their free shares?

[ravenna23] 25/11/2015 11:56

Siwel3, I think you have put a very good case re 6782, I would just change "STUPID" to reckless?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:54

Wily fox Graham, and promoting trash newspaper journalism like you normally do.
I prefer to follow the integrity of the PIC CEO and what he said, but maybe you want to call that into question as well?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:52

Probably Ravenna re Post 6785, they sold 20m or so shares I think, which could easily be covered by the volumes in the last days pre ex-rights, but at a stonking loss one would imagine. On the converse new shareholders have come on Board who want to sub-underwrite more than their entitlement (so Magara said).

EDIT
Grahams says only 5m sold, I thought it was higher so misread. 1% hardly huge.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 11:51

hxxp://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/companies-and-deals/pic-averse-to-lonmin-share-sale/

PIC Averse to Lonmin share sale......

So, did they really want the rights issue, or was there no choice?

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 11:50

On the 22nd of September, yes 2 months ago, and only a few weeks before the rights issue.

They sold over 5.8 million shares in Lonmin.

Shares Before Sale = 50,733,635
Shares after Sale = 44,870,970

Does that look very supportive?

Do they really want more shares?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:49

Graham, I'm learning to read between the lines, read Post 6783.

How was coffee with ICarrado, will you two be running any more wily fox courses after the trucks have unloaded.

[ravenna23] 25/11/2015 11:46

Elvis, as I explained before IIs have their sell orders worked over several weeks. They only have to declare when the order is complete. As there has been no corresponding announcement of a substantial holding, or increased holding, it is likely that Old Mutual have unloaded to PIs, not an under the counter deal.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 11:44

"What if the shares fall below 1p before the 10th from where they might rebound moderately (but a fair bit on the volume the PIC is likely to buy) or come to that fall in farther?"

I still don't see them buying, because if the shares fall below 1p, no one in their right mind would take up rights, and the underwriters would get the lot. i.e. PIC would get the full 25% it subscribed to underwrite.

I don't see a scenario where PIC would buy more shares than they are already committed to.

Don't forget, they do not want to buy shares, they have agreed to underwrite in order to get the rights issue away.

Only a few months ago PIC was selling Lonmin shares, and it also stated that Lonmin should seek funds elsewhere rather than having a cash call from shareholders.

So, their recent support, is simply a matter of having to, not wanting to.

As I have said many times (to elvis), learn to read between the lines. ;-)

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:41

Lazy, if you don't want to believe me about PIC, then you'll have to go and call the PIC CEO a liar then for what he put out in the Sunday Times recently. That's a Public Statement, under essentially UK Takeover rules, that will have been noted by their surveillance teams. Graham thinks these guys are clowns too. The wild west of UK Plc!
-------------------------
"Matjila said the PIC would "most definitively" consider helping to finance a black majority shareholding in Lonmin, but it was a matter of structuring the deal correctly, which meant, once again, that it needed to await the outcome of the current $407-million rights issue"
-------------------------
Motsepe is who Kojak and I think it will be, but I have nothing more to suggest this. Buy low, unlock value, sell high, isn't that what investors should do?

Remember that point I queried with you a few weeks ago, what convinced big shareholders other than PIC to sign the cheque when they went eyeball to eyeball with the Chairman? Not saying he told them a deal was around the corner because that would be foolish to suggest this, but what was it?


--------------------------
Graham, as you know is currently researching "Boardroom Politics" in his old school encyclopedias!

[siwel3] 25/11/2015 11:33

I can understand calculating the real worth of a company and investing if for some reason the share price fundamentally undervalues the company.
That's not the case with this one, the share price reflects the value and going forward will continue to fall to reflect the cash burn.
There are only two circumstances where an investment here is warranted. One is the rise in the Platinum price over 1100 with an indication that the rise will continue. The second is if one of their competitors fails and if that company isn't rescued by the government thus maintaining production.
In both cases there will be ample time to buy and hold for a sustained rise. Buying now before either of these scenarios unfold is......STUPID and bad investing.
There is a trade to be had but its to wait for consolidation and then short until such time as one of the scenarios changes the picture or hold short until the company goes bust in 24-36 months.
IMO DYOR and all that sh*t.

[lazyhisnibs] 25/11/2015 11:30

Graham,

OK, so there's no pressure or incentive for them to be in the market now for shares or rights. What if the shares fall below 1p before the 10th from where they might rebound moderately (but a fair bit on the volume the PIC is likely to buy) or come to that fall farther instead?

PS: they could be in the market to follow their original 7% stake but also they would know how these things usually progress.

"Elvis is in a bad place, can't you tell?"

Sadly yes. The share needed one consistent ramper and although interesting to 'talk' to he/she was never that convincing partly because of all the pantomime-type comments. But then maybe one or two silent newbies fell for it earlier on but we'll never know. Where ramping is convincing though it seems to be to more about persuading PIs to hold in to a funding which is harsh.

Kojak initially ramped far more powerfully with lots of confusing figures but also some interesting facts. But then he sold and changed colours so remained interesting but became transparent. He then bought again. Then sold again so on and so on.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:27

Graham, them trucks in the driveway yet or you busy having coffee with ICarrado?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:26

Ravenna, I had worked that one out. Old Mutual off loaded to somebody.

But if that's the case with other II's and a shed load is being dumped, it's not showing on the trade screen, so off-line / dark pools and all that I guess.

[ravenna23] 25/11/2015 11:21

I think all you optimists should bear in mind that aside from PIC and the underwriters none of the institutions are obligated to take up their rights. Old Mutual voted with its feet, the others can too.

[nash81] 25/11/2015 11:21

guys, WRES just issued RNS few mins ago.

SO UNDER RADAR, but slowly getting the attention.

WRES Licence is now granted.

per recent webcast, JV will follow shortly as they have been in advanced stage for JV and bank funding will also follow shortly.

we may get another RNS very soon on either JV or bank funding. also revised JORC coming soon too.

santa rally is coming.

CEO mentioned this is worth 3p at least

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:21

PMSL laughing Graham, I follow TERP and the Prospectus, that's why its there for PIs and IIs you plonker!

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 11:19

#MinersShotDown Best Documentary Winner at the #iEmmy Awards

hxxp://www.iemmys.tv/news_item.aspx?id=205

This should bring Lonmin some publicity.

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:17

Lazy, can I add Typo 56 into that shrewd pile, here are his Posts 6334/44 from last Friday.
------------------------
6334: If you think it's the bottom, pile into LMIN @ 0.1p. (I'm not)
------------------------
6344: Yes elvisrocks, I think 1.1p would value the company post rights at about £300m. I'm not sure why there is such a large arbitrage between LMIN and LMI. On the face of it it looks a no brainer. Perhaps it is but perhaps it factors in the risk of LMI shorts being called in, causing a short squeeze. It's something I'm playing, but not big for that reason.
------------------------
So, huge volatility due to the 27bn shares in issue, plus arbitrage, my goodness, a professional traders dream scenario, but even they could get burnt. 0.10 pile in, but it's now 0.05p and the arbitrage is closing.
------------------------
So what does this mean, even it LMIN closed at 0.01p, there is still value to somebody in those rights, so underwriters not needed. PIC (or rather their investors who they are offloading to) will be watching whether they can get the 25% or need to be doing some side deals now.
-----------------------
However back to current day stuff, the TERP I mentioned of 1.19 / 0.19 is likely to come back into play, may drop a bit say to 0.17 due to Pt prices but then should surge as real investors work out the uplift that is due to come on Friday 11th. You have to hold the shares and the nil paid rights to be at the party. Monday 7th is the deadline I think for all this.
-----------------------
Hope that helps

[ravenna23] 25/11/2015 11:08

The reason Australian miners are paid more is because the whole process from rock face to port is highly mechanised and automated, they are even automating the truck drivers. Hand drilling disappeared a long time ago.

[graham2405] 25/11/2015 11:07

"As to Graham's clarifications about PIC's role in this with that 25% I've been thinking that the PIC probably wouldn't wait till the last minute to find out if they have to buy perhaps more than they want but what they have committed to. In that case they would, I guess, be intermittent buyers in the mean time. Perhaps leaving the bulk till the last minute or after the last minute however it works for underwriters."

PIC would not buy rights, as underwriters they get to pay 1p per share, they have no need for the rights.

If the rights remain unsold, they get to buy fully paid shares @ 1p.

As mentioned, they do not want those shares, they have underwritten it so that Lonmin gets the cash and therefore gets saved.

The alternative was administration, and masses of job losses.

PIC are not going to ride a white stallion and save the shareholders. They are supporting the jobs and the communities.

More than likely a political investment rather than a financial one.

Elvis is just ramping it up because she has made an enormous loss and she is kidding herself that this will turn out OK.

Simply put, Elvis made a very bad call, and she has compounded it by making ever more bad calls.

No doubt trying to raise cash to take up her rights in full. So further compounding the losses.

Elvis is in a bad place, can't you tell?

[elvisrocks] 25/11/2015 11:01

Graham re Post 6767.

Yip. Buy at the lows, sell at the highs, that's what it is all about. It's called being value accreative. That's what Sibanye did a couple of months ago when they made all these acquisitions, with HSBC's money behind them on AQP. Problem is Sibanye now perceived as weaker than Lonmin, so more value in Lonmin. Implats, the only other major player excl. Amplats separation, will have tons of debt. Lonmin will have none.

That truck or 10 arrived yet?