Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 13:55

Regards Elvis and my behaviour......

I did not appreciate the attitude handed out to those with differing opinions. Even when clearly wrong accusations still flew.

In short I acted in somewhat revenge by highlighting the losses suffered by Elvis.

This was not a good move......I don't like to see people lose money.

But even less do I like someone that was seeking to mislead (I do not believe that Elvis was stupid, just avoiding the truth) others into an investment in this company.

Especially given the constant I'm an accountant.......therefore I have credibility.

Back to discussing the merits of Lonmin, any newsflow and trading info.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 13:49

"I fail to see how clarifying to Graham precisely what the law is about mandatory take over offers or whatever could possibly prejudice other shareholders or anyone else."

Exactly, anyway I phoned them twice, and managed to get the guys email address. He was actually the corporate lawyer for the takeover panel. So I doubt he'll have the time to respond.

Regardless, I think I've covered off the Elvis scenario, that PIC would be forced to make a takeover offer for the company. In that they have signed up for 25% and others for 75%. in order for them to get 25% the whole rights issue 100% would have to fail.

So the scenario Elvis posed was fundamentally flawed.

[brahmsnliszt] 27/11/2015 13:35

size selling in rhodium this morning at 700 fwiw.
saw 1500 ozs sold at 700 in broker.

not providing support to the pgms in general hence pt lower.

[bouleversee] 27/11/2015 13:16

I fail to see how clarifying to Graham precisely what the law is about mandatory take over offers or whatever could possibly prejudice other shareholders or anyone else. If the info is spelled out clearly on their website, however, they may take the view that they can't be bothered. Or they may say he must refer to his financial advisor or solicitor. It is also quite likely that they may take so long to reply that their answer is too late to be useful for this particular situation, though it still would be in general terms.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 12:49

"Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

Winston Churchill

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 12:44

Graham, I'm not going to do any more posts with you ok your maths or explaining.
I'm done, good luck with anything you still want to battle on with.

That goes for anything you want to post on the 47 figure or my own position.
I will not respond to you any more.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 12:42

Ok lets look on the positive side 'ISH'

you have 'invested' 25p

You take up you rights in full, effectively doubling down....on the 25p.

you pay up the rights 46 rights @ 1p = 46p

Add 46p to your original 25p

You have precisely 71p invested for your 47 shares.

So 1.51p per share.

after consolidation £1.51 per share.

So, even after doubling down, which is what it is, you are still looking at a circa 50% gain to break even.

That's some investment Elvis, and that assumes you take up all of your rights.

If you don't the numbers just get worse.

Heaven forbid that they trade below £1, which seems likely after they start burning through the cash.

Elvis, given the arrogance and attitude shown, day in, day out, I could care less.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 12:33

"Graham, I think you still need to multiply by 47 somewhere :)"

Yes, I knew I'd missed something...... ;-)

[chrisbr777] 27/11/2015 12:29

Graham, I think you still need to multiply by 47 somewhere :)

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 12:22

Ok lets do the math

Elvis @ 25p per share

current share price = 1.25p

current value of rights = 46 * 0.025p = 1.15p

Total value per the original 25p share is now = 2.40p

That is what they trade for, that is what they are currently worth.

25p to 2.40p that's some loss.

Please feel free to explain where I went wrong.

[rackers1] 27/11/2015 12:22

he will still no doubt come out slagging me off when all along ive stayed true like graham for this to go lower. Some thanks we get eh.
approaching 90 pct loss on his initial investment and the clown has to stump up more soon on this dog of a share.

u can lead a oaf to water.......

[chrisbr777] 27/11/2015 12:18

Some'one' who is in from 25p has by now lost about 88% of their capital. And needs to put up another 1p per share to continue to play. Reminds me of those coin operated Video Game machines of the 80's - "Game Over - Insert another coin to continue playing".

[rackers1] 27/11/2015 12:11

6 dec i think BlackRocktrader

[rackers1] 27/11/2015 12:11

ohhhh dahhhn she goes i see.

glad im not long in size this pos from 25p ex ri like some oafs.

lol
laterz x

[blackrocktrader] 27/11/2015 11:41

What is the last trading day for rights ???

[lazyhisnibs] 27/11/2015 11:27

hxxp://www.fin24.com/Companies/Mining/lonmin-to-issue-27bn-new-shares-20151120

Thanks for posting the above link Graham.

I'll just pick up on some of the simpler stuff from it.

Extracts:

"The rand price of the platinum metals basket per ounce – the most accurate indication of a platinum mine’s income – has during the process of the rights issue decreased from R22 000 three weeks ago to R19 000 on Friday"

And, farther down in the article, a bit of history come hindsight .... a bit of a shocker though seeing it with those particular round numbers:

"In other words, if you invested R100 000 in Lonmin in 2008, you have about R100 left today."

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 11:23

"Graham there is no outnumbering 46:1"

So your saying that there are not 46 LMIN for every 1 LMI then.

Yes, that makes perfect sense.......?

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 11:18

Graham there is no outnumbering 46:1. When the shares were sub divided they made them the same par value as the rights and that is what TERP is there for. A right should trade at 1/46 of LMI but then you need to buy enough of them to get you to 1p.

At the moment it doesn't obviously because positions have been taken in the market but as we come up to close, that gap of 0.19 that I take about will always be there. Natural market forces ensure that.

Every evening that the LMIN / LMI has closed that gap has been the same bar last night when it was 0.22. Where people or underwriters would be concerned is if LMI falls below 1.19 but thus far shows no sign of doing that.

Back to the maths lesson for you I'm afraid. You can't exploit this arbitrage in my view but for anyone who wants to try, good luck.

[lazyhisnibs] 27/11/2015 11:12

hxxp://investorintel.com/technology-metals-intel/end-of-russian-palladium-exports-may-result-in-world-market-shortage/

Kojak,

Thanks for the link above. So, that was the PGM news out of Russia.

I suppose if palladium gets more expensive there is less incentive for auto manufactures to use it where they can instead of platinum. The bigger picture to me seems to be around the following:

a) With Russian State so hard up and short on foreign reserves is it just a ploy to try to goose PGM prices and particularly palladium. Even if they get around to materially reducing exports in 2016 I suspect it won't be for long if oil prices stay sub $50 or perhaps even $60.

b) Do western consumers now see diesel cars how they used to be perceived and that is dirty. Maybe more and more people will increasingly consider the diesel emissions thing as one of the words biggest and longest running scams.

An interesting link all the same and the news does seem to have given the PGMs markets something else to think about. I had been expecting a bounce with platinum just above $800, perhaps $810 but not something trend changing. The trend might be ripe for a slow down in terms of progress though as it's fallen a lot and quickly.

[graham2405] 27/11/2015 09:36

Elvis

It's just a theory..............

How much effort would it take for the underwriters to support the LMI in order to 'add value' to the LMIN rights.

Given that they are outnumbered 46-1 and that the underwriters are on the hook if the LMIN rights are not taken up.

Do I need to draw you a picture.

[elvisrocks] 27/11/2015 09:33

Not much volume on LMIN today, gone down a lot. Nominee's being scalped as forced sellers, no volume for traders to make their turn (or shorters who bought in at the 0.10p trap last Friday) when Typo said don't.

The song is called "The Only Way is Up" by Yazoo, and back to the 0.19 rights value difference between LMIN/LMI. Has to stay there.

A strong LMI above 1.19 shows this, if the opposite were true and it fell to 1.01 or below, it would mean the RI has failed PIs / IIs. There is no sign of that showing.