Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 15:05

"At what platinum price did Ben M say the Company was about cash flow neutral?"

Simply put, He didn't.

But, the consensus low quoted in the figures was $1070.

Yes that was the consensus low!

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 15:01

Oh what fantastic fun, Icarrodo (Graham) is back after his delayed trip to Italy. My old sparring partner and Mr. Loony Bin himself is back!

So Graham, how was it? It's certainly not you that's been selling them rights, been buying a truck load I guess? Did you take any maths lessons when u were away or just teach others the master class of being a wily fox?

As for Lonmin, got to love it. I'll settle for a $1bn balance sheet to start with even at these plat prices. Can't wait for Xmas even.

How many of these rights you buy? Couple of billion?

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 15:01

This is one car crash of a rights issue.

Never was going to be pretty.......

......as I said numerous times.

"Wait until after the Rights Issue before you buy"

Assuming you want to.

Which I can't imagine anyone would. Sure the company gets the cash, and all those lovely miners get beer money for another year or two, but at what cost?

The shareholders get 'shaft'ed, pardon the pun. ;-)

[lazyhisnibs] 24/11/2015 14:58

Graham,

You may have just dropped in to cheer holders up! But if you're still around do you mind clicking on my handle and providing your input to my questions around process today. Like a few others here you've obviously been round the block a few time with this stuff. You also tend to be very direct with your wording which helps.

Thanks,

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 14:38

Well..........

I've only been away a few days and.........it's gotten even worse.

Only 0.042p if you want to sell the rights.....Ouch.

Those rights really weren't worth having.

So, what is Lonmin really worth?

Not 1.8 Billion that's for sure.

....and Platinum @ $844 per ounce.

[lazyhisnibs] 24/11/2015 14:32

Whilst hoping they would break it down I suspected they would go with a mix, pity - less transparent. Not unusual for a resources company though especially the small caps but pt and pd do their own things at times.

I get your point about the self-fulfilling aspect particularly at a time like this Elvis but the market will speculate where there is minimalist information and speculation is often worse than the reality.

On a ZAR per 1 USD over the past month not much has happened save for being volatile within a relatively narrow range. On the other hand the price of platinum, in dollar terms, has dropped hard.

hxxp://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=ZAR&view=1M



Or

The 30 day chart at



Over a month the platinum price appears to have fallen a bit in rand terms too if the following is reasonably accurate:

hxxp://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/platinum/all/

4% very roughly but that's on a glance on a chart with minimal detail. Then again on a more detailed chart it appears to be a marginal change, perhaps 1%

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 14:10

"""What we can control is what we can promise them, which is R10,400 per platinum group metal (PGM) ounce in terms of costs, and R900 per PGM ounce in terms of capital spend every year."""

Dont forget that he is talking about PGM mix and not Pt or Pd or Rd by themself.

right now Pt is 11830 Rand
Pd 7532 Rand

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 14:04

He didn't Lazy, do you think he is completely stupid? Would be like supplying the rope to hang himself with!

If he quoted a figure and it fell below that, that would be a self-fulfiling prophecy, that's why you can't easily get at such a figure or range of figures. Same would be true of any of their competitors.

[lazyhisnibs] 24/11/2015 14:01

Elvis,

At what platinum price did Ben M say the Company was about cash flow neutral? (I know other things are in the mix including a bit of palladium but the pt price is the bull in the china shop and of course I realise there will be bounces.)

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 13:57

LOL billpap, only problem is I don't drive!

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 13:56

.... Loss making is different to "at least cash flow neutral after capx" ..... He also said they will cut their cloth accordingly to deal with the low Pt price.

[billpap] 24/11/2015 13:56

Elvis was driving down the freeway, his car phone rang. Upon answering, he heard his wife's voice urgently warning him, "Elvis, I just heard on the news that there's a car going the wrong way on the highway. Please be careful!"

"Hell," said Elvis, "It's not just one car. It's hundreds of them!"

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 13:55

They havent closed their lossmaking shafts yet and havent fired 3000 workers.
They are still burning cash.

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 13:53

When asked about new RI in the next two years Ben Magara didnt deny that possibility
hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/mining/2015/11/23/business-day-tv-everyone-is-taking-a-little-pain-says-lonmin-ceo

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 13:50

Not so mikemaxm, a P&L account has lots of things in it, not just a Pt price ..., e.g. less costs, profits go up!

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 13:48

They announced themself that without RI they would stop trading.
So they are definitely lossmaking in current market condition.

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 13:41

mikemaxm - try reading the Prospectus for what Lonmin is going to do with the money, it says so in there. That's why it was published, der ... so investors can
see what they are signing upto!

Also book yourself on that accounts course I mentioned, Lonmin is not "burning cash" as I illustrated particularly to Graham last week. Them journalists again .... you're listening too much too them!

[careful] 24/11/2015 13:40

we forget the cash burn going on right now.
maybe they will launch another rights issue in January.
(only joking)

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 13:33

""""current implied value now below £283m raised by rights cash less charges. £290m less charges. cost to investors with full take up 27,000m x 1p.= £270m. less underwriters fee about £30m. add 587m lmi at 1.26 = £74m. this is now trading at below zero for the original company pre rights."""

Lonmin is planning to pay $170m debt facilities from RI to banks.
Besides they are apparently burning through cash. At what rate I dont know, maybe $10-20 m per month.

I am surprised that there havent been detailed discussion what are Lonmin going to do with money from RI. The money that they badly needed otherwise they wouldnt have made RI.

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 13:29

Careful re Posts 6620/22 taken together, I'll say it for you .... someone is seriously taking the p... here!

[careful] 24/11/2015 13:23

i would assume Barc/Ivestec and co.are making crude guesses as to the likely cap value after this is all over.

things could change very quickly here.

[lazyhisnibs] 24/11/2015 13:23

If there are some large private deals going on then us plebs have no idea as to how much of II's (that want or need to be involved) war chests have been used up. I would hazard a guess and say less than a third in the case of the most significant one. They would know how these things play out and obviously will want in at the best prices possible especially if they are to sell some of their resulting holding on. And they were afforded the time to be at least a bit patient.

PS: noted re 6612. Clear as mud isn't bar what can be deduced from what usually happens but there's always a grey area or three.

[careful] 24/11/2015 13:21

current implied value now below £283m raised by rights cash less charges.

£290m less charges.
cost to investors with full take up 27,000m x 1p.= £270m.
less underwriters fee about £30m.
add 587m lmi at 1.26 = £74m.

this is now trading at below zero for the original company pre rights.