Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[h2owater] 23/11/2015 06:04

1p as expected.

[lazyhisnibs] 23/11/2015 00:16

Elvis,

Given your recent interest in Petro and your "but I wasn't there comment" I put the following together for you.

28-Apr-14 RNS

Financials for calendar year 2013 which included a caveat regarding banking covenants.

The share price was in the high seventies or low eighties. There's no longer enough data on Google to get the price on April 28th. (On April 25th: 83.75p and on May 2nd: 68.75p according to Google's 5 year chart. Being the closes.)

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16-Sep-14 RNS

Various funding matters including heads up on an RI.

Share price in the mid-thirties approximately but there's no longer enough data on Google to get the price on the 16th. (On Sept 12th: 39.75p and on the 19th: 33.25p.)


------#---------


08-Dec-14 RNS

Follow up on funding including notification of the 5p discounted RI price.

Dec 8th was a Monday and Google records the share price as having been 11.25. More interestingly the price on Friday 5th, at the close was, 16p.


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26-Feb-15 RNS

Results of General Meeting. Confirmation of Yes votes in other words.

Google records 15.75 on Feb 26th and 13.50 for the day before. Out of interest 17.82 is recorded for Feb 20th.


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27-Feb-15 RNS

Admission of nil paid rights.

Google recorded the share price as 5.52 being the close. I see no evidence of the share price shooting up thereafter but after several months it reached 7.72 in June.

End of history lesson.


OBSERVATION.

The common denominator seems to be that in cases of distressed small caps (especially miners and oilies) the time value of money is horrendously negative once the rights issue word is out. All it takes is a hint to get the move down the slippery slope going. However, after the dust has settled it is not just the fundamentals that seem to drive the price (up or down) but sentiment and range traders too.

[m w] 22/11/2015 23:09

yes the share price went up to about 17p during the rights issue but the bid did not succeed

[lazyhisnibs] 22/11/2015 20:14

Elvis,

I'm useless with RI jargon so I'm not going to us phrases like the subscription period. Here's the history of dog (aka POG) as I remember it.

It peaked at about 1350p in April 2010. There was all that spending on the POX Hub etc etc in management's (and many others) excited anticipation of gold going above $2000 which of course it didn't. Hindsight stuff.

In 2012 the share price fell through four pounds for three pounds fifty when, inter alia, JP Morgan cautioned about covenant risks should gold's fall go sub $1400 which of course it did. By the end of April 2014 when dog had to publish the annual statements for the financial year that had ended four months prior their management finally flagged the risk to the covenants. The share price fall accelerated which had another boost when about a month later the AGM didn't give any comfort to holders either. (All from memory and my perception.)

In the days before the RI heads-up RNS (which was silent on salient details that might have been used to figure out the rate of dilution) the share price was in the thirties I think but one could check. The share price was circa 16p in to the close the trading day before the follow up RNS (that provided the salient details about dilution) was published.

In the period that followed there were hard falls but there were hard rises too including up to levels some have spoken about here. The low during that period was a smidgen above 6p (in old money of course) but it didn't stay there long, instead it bounced impressively.

Now for the next bit my memory is a bit hazy. On the day it went XX or whatever it is called I thought it had a high of about 6.6p and a low of 4.4p but maybe a decent chart will 'say' otherwise. Since the RI dust has settled and again according to my memory the price has ranged between about 5.3p and 7.6p. For quite long periods the share price has hung around the 6p level but dog has or at had margin.


DYOR

[elvisrocks] 22/11/2015 19:01

Lazy, your point about self assured posters (as well as the disguised variety) ..... Hmmm

On the disguised variety, do you ever remember POG going from 5p to 17p in the RI subscription period (due to an apparent takeover). I may be wrong here and would imagine your answer is No given the underwriters were left with the big chunk of the rights?

[kirk 6] 22/11/2015 18:43

Looking at history on The markets this is he only stock that traded at £40 a share and fallen to 1p

[lazyhisnibs] 22/11/2015 18:21

Elvis,

6441. I made the correction after you spotted my confusion hence my thank you.

As per you other point around what I meant, yep I was talking in terms of if it fell sub 1p for what you call Old Co LMI. As to that, who knows but I would be surprised if it stayed below 1p for long without platinum having another plunge. For whether a plunge in platinum is more probable than a temporary rebound ask three TA types and get four different answers two of which (i.e. answers) will be about right!

I would be surprised if LMI didn't get closer to 1p than it is now but, for me, the wild card is the PIC but surely they want to pay as little as possible for extra rights (if that's the correct way of putting it) and they've got a bit of time to play with. Subject to the PIC or other buyers goosing the margin in the rights, from what I've witnessed previously I will be surprised if most PIs yield anything near as much selling their surpluses as they were hoping for or merely anticipated.

As for POG in terms of what it's share price did and when it did it if you now think it might be a guide (however indirect) you could note the dates of the salient RNSs and look at a chart or two. I wouldn't suggest relying on Google's. Some of the derivatives online trading sites give access to charting software via their free domo programs. I presume they have more data than Google's does after three quarters of year. Something else with POG, it is my understanding that the underwriters ended up holding most of the shares. Even if I'm right I don't know what the current situation is.

As to not just the fundamentals but also the subtleties around the RI process I note there are a number of self-assured sounding posters here and obviously I sure as hell aren't one of them! You could always email Investor Relations with any queries you have about the process. As you know they can only address what is in the public domain but by now they would have fielded questions about the process from a number of holders and prospective holders.

[kirk 6] 22/11/2015 17:23

The rights Are currently very good value and will probably return to 0.19 tomorroe

[kirk 6] 22/11/2015 17:19

When will the dividend start being paid

[dealy] 22/11/2015 12:15

it will not always be loss making. Is a rented house that temporarily generates no rent during repairs worth nothing?

[m w] 22/11/2015 11:36

a loss making company in my opinion has no value just look at what's happening with ifl,

[dealy] 22/11/2015 10:43

I think it's reasonable to assume that the post Transaction value of the equity is a Billion Dollars (assuming the Platinum Price recovers marginally from the current depressed level). That is just half of the book value - and remember that the book value will be increased by 400m through the equity injection.

Dividing by 27 Billion Shares gives a 2.6p per share reasonable value in my opinion.

[kojak78] 22/11/2015 03:05

Implats equivalent price per new share is 2.3-2.4p

[kojak78] 21/11/2015 23:16

Elvis, I do not know if shorting was involved. To me thinking about value of rights is looking backward. I have warned from the start to have the cash for the RI and the value of rights is nearly meaningless to investors taking full rights.

[davieboy78] 21/11/2015 22:36

Could be wrong but 2,300,000 shares and £23k.

[pavittar] 21/11/2015 20:27

hi guys
I am new to this stock ,before the rights issue I had 50000 shares so what
will I be allocated and how do I apply for them as my Td Direct are only showing
the 50000 and can some one explain how much they will cost me.
many thanks in advance

[elvisrocks] 21/11/2015 16:27

Kojak, thanks for your Post 6493.

The way you phrase this - little likelihood of need for underwriters, few lapsing rights etc - all makes sense, and thus the shares and the rights (should) both stay reasonably above 1p. This would be consistent with the messages coming from Lonmin, PIC and others wanting to sub-underwrite, but are unlikely to get many.

A simple extension of this logic, demand stays high etc, would put (say) the rights value we saw yesterday head up, Macquarie have stuck their neck out and said 0.40p maybe.

Thus the volatility we saw yesterday and low rights prices would suggest the arbitrage will maybe stay but prices "should" tend to the upside rather than downside. Plus shorting was probably at play as another poster said IG Platform closed the opportunity to short from early Friday morning.

Would you go along with this statement?

[elvisrocks] 21/11/2015 14:34

chrisbr777.

Just scanning a quick look at your various posts in total, I think you were not a "wet round the ears person new to all this" but have known all along your position. I'm sorry I got into a debate with you but am now withdrawing any commentary I previously posted to you. I think it possible you are a disguised poster.

I will not be responding to your Posts if you reply to me on this one. Go ahead if you want to post something, I will ignore it.

[careful] 21/11/2015 14:22

abryer
do be careful when buying shares if rights slip below 1p.
imagine holders trying to buy 10 billion shares at below 1p to avoid paying the full 1p rights, all at the same time.

you would deal 'at best' and would cause such a spike you may be lucky to get them at 5p.
A disaster.

sounds like one of Baldrick's cunning plans.

[careful] 21/11/2015 13:48

I know that kirk.
I have dabbled short term using cfd's.
very exciting stuff these leveraged trades.
go out and play a round of golf at £3k up.
return by teatime, margined out losing £2k.
The fundamentals of the company matter little.
just short term trends.

[kirk 6] 21/11/2015 13:22

Careful some of us here are very short term I.e trading direct market access every minute. Never look long term as look at most of the charts on AIM!!!

[30rock] 21/11/2015 13:04

Sibayne buying Aquarius is a false signal. Do you believe we are at the bottom of the commodities cycle as Neal Foreman had stated? He called the Uranium cycle in the mid 2000s, but that doesn't mean he is the oracle. Sibayne is a product of Foreman, designed to be brought out by International Investors. It has a complete different business model to LMI.

[abryer] 21/11/2015 12:42

I will be taking up my rights in full if price stays above 1p, if it dips below 1p I shall be straight in and buy from the open market obviously. Either way I shall hold for a while, imho Sibayne buying Aquarius just the start of consolidation in the sector.

[careful] 21/11/2015 12:30

so much short term thinking.
it is the average platinum price over the next 2-3 years that will decide the fate of this company.