Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 18:46

"""So, it's 8% we need to be concerned about, not the drop off a cliff 20% ($1000-800) that others on this BB continually try and draw attention to.""""


Liar!!!
The drop is 21%.

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 18:43

Cost production of PGM mix(Pd + Pt + Rd + base metals) = 10400+900(capital expenditure)= 11300.

Lossmaking at these prices!!!!

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 18:39

Against a cost of production of R10,400 so that = Profit!

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 18:37

15000 - 21% = 11850
current price of Pt is 11 816 Rand

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 18:34

Lazy

Graham was doing was he always does, picking a number and saying "this is it" (without being involved in the actual business plan).

As I said, any PGM producer is never going to reveal its hand on prices or consensus prices.

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 18:31

Lazy, I give up! From a post I did about a week ago and straight from the JM Report. This is the evidence on the impact of reduced PGM prices and how this will translate into Lonmin's financial numbers and why there is scaremongering. Page 3, SA only:
--------------------
"The mine sales, rationalisations and reductions to capital spending discussed above have been driven largely by weak prices. Rand depreciation has protected producers from the full impact of this year's collapse in dollar-denominated pgm prices, but platinum's rand price has nevertheless dropped by about 8% from its January 2015 peak of nearly R15,000 per oz, to around R13,650 in late October (this compares to a fall of over 20% in dollar platinum prices over the same period)".
------------------------------
So, it's 8% we need to be concerned about, not the drop off a cliff 20% ($1000-800) that others on this BB continually try and draw attention to.

[lazyhisnibs] 24/11/2015 18:24

From 6644

"But, the consensus low quoted in the figures was $1070."

So in in dollar terms platinum's about 20% down from that whereas it is down roughly 10% in rand terms since the results on November 9th if the following is reasonably accurate.

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 18:06

Careful or Kojak, here is the JM Report again, meant for Graham really to refer to when he gets his fetish fix on publishing the Pt price. It probably has something on ETF's, an area I don't understand, essentially what are you saying in this area?

If it's not your area maybe Kojak can comment on ETF's, I've never really followed him when he's says it's the low season on Plat ETF's etc.



Also, I never did really understand what that dreaded analyst Andrew Byrne from Barclays was saying on ETF's in this recent article and whether he was doing a U-Turn on the doom and gloom he was predicting on Lonmin.

[careful] 24/11/2015 17:51

My guess that the derivative driven Platinum price falls may be linked to this Lonmin situation.

I expect a strong rebound in platinum prices by end january.

[blackrocktrader] 24/11/2015 17:47

One more.
When is the last trading day for rights ???

[chrisbr777] 24/11/2015 17:43

Arcelor Mittal (Based purely on the article posted and not on any further research) - Seems that the $4.5bn raised is being underwritten by a big backer (the PARENT). Then further in the article says the funds raised will be used to settle PARENT company loans of $3.2bn. So here is how it can play out: 1) Offer shareholders new shares at an inflated stock price 2) If the shareholders bite - then fantastic, the debt is fully paid back to the Parent company (whose interests are being served here?) 3) If the shareholders don't bite, then the parent company simply CONVERTS its debt into equity. ---- In the article the Share price closes up as investors are ELATED at the CONFIDENCE shown. Yet PARENTCO benefits either through recovery in full of its debt, or by increased ownership % of Arcelor Mittal. The private investor is left with either settling the corporate debt, or losing their shareholding % of the company. Is this a good deal?

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 17:34

Buy 47 rights then, by the truckload.

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 17:32

"the Lonmin uplift is due to come"

Whatever your taking, I'd like some. ;-)

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 17:31

However, they will then do a consolidation of 100 to 1.

So if you want 1 NEW SHARE, you'll need 100 shares @ 1p

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 17:30

Your nemesis just won't go away Graham ...

See that Arcelor Mittal article I just posted, well their investment banks told them to price the RI at a 50% premium and the shares went up by 50% (reverse of Lonmin's RI terms and share price falls). At Arcelor Mittal, even after this 50% gain today, their shares are still down 75%, so again, similar to Lonmin's 90%+ fall figure.

Problem is Graham, and follow the maths here (I know it's difficult for you), the Lonmin uplift is due to come. December 11th I think, date fully paids start to trade..

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 17:30

1 right = 1 share @ a cost of 1p

[blackrocktrader] 24/11/2015 17:28

How many rights do I need to have to subscribe for one new share ???

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 17:20

"Nope try again Graham, it's them PI's trying to sell their rights and those nasty shorters and gangster traders taking their money..... Macquarie put a value on the right at 0.40p remember ....."

Sorry to see you losing money here, but wishing and hoping will not help.

The rights issue has been a car wreck for holders.

The company is a money pit for shareholder cash.

I see little changing over the next 12 months.

Within 2 years they'll want more cash. (print that and stick it on your study wall)

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 17:14

Nope try again Graham, it's them PI's trying to sell their rights and those nasty shorters and gangster traders taking their money..... Macquarie put a value on the right at 0.40p remember .....

[mikemaxm] 24/11/2015 17:14

"""There are more punters gambling on the metal prices than real customers buying the stuff."""

So basically you are saying that physical demand for PGM is dismal at the moment?

[graham2405] 24/11/2015 17:13

"there is too much demand for these rights."

Utter tosh.

The price makes it very clear that there is little demand.

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 17:12

That's right Alexios, only 3% volumes traded so far, not many people want out and there is an almighty value uplift coming in early December.

Buy a truck load or two if I were you (Graham may have got there before you) .......

[elvisrocks] 24/11/2015 17:09

A 50% premium and a 50% jump in share prices, what's all that about then? Arcelor Mittal's RI in SA announced today .....
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ARCELORMITTAL’s South African unit priced its R4.5bn cash call at more than a 50% premium on Tuesday as it battles falling steel demand and rising costs, sending its shares soaring.

"They’re sending the signal that someone with deep pockets is backing them and obviously the parent company feels there can be a big turnaround," Cratos Capital trader Greg Davies said.

The unit of the world’s largest steel maker said it would sell nearly 700-million new shares at R6.50 each, 56% above their closing price on Monday, in an issue which is fully underwritten by the parent company.

Shares in ArcelorMittal SA jumped 46.5% to R6.11 by 12.33pm GMT, paring losses so far this year to about 75%. Steel companies around the world are grappling with a global supply glut that has sent producers’ share prices to their lowest levels in more than a decade.

The money from fundraising will be used to pay off parent company loans, which stand at R3.2bn, and to fund capital expenditure. The offer will dilute the current shareholding in the company by 30%. To cope with weak demand and rising costs, the company has said it would close parts of its Vereeniging plant and cut about 283 jobs as part of a review of its operations.

Along with industry rivals, ArcelorMittal SA has also asked the government to introduce import and anti-dumping tariffs to help compete against cheap steel coming mainly from China.

[alexios1201] 24/11/2015 17:09

Demand for #LMIN???Who are you trying to kid QE???http://www.shareprice.co.uk/LMIN/LONMIN-NEW-(NP---10%7C12%7C2015)#LMIN closed at 0.045p or -36.9% as of yest 0.07p close