Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 17:12

Kirk, I don't have your direct access product. Which one do you use?
How much did you get yours at by the way given such an incredible wide range?

[typo56] 23/11/2015 17:11

I don't seem to have any problems in getting quotes to buy LMIN shares via Selftrade. Possibly you need to complete a risk form in order to trade them.

I'm not doing it though as it's cheaper to trade via CFD.

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 17:11

Kirk, I'm not a regular trader like you, new to this but well researched into LMI or what you lot call 'long'.

One of the other posters says the usual 'standard' trading platforms like Halifax and HL are blocking buys into LMIN at the moment, hence I guess you're suggesting a NT if you want to buy big?

Or were you meaning my post 6564? That's what I've been seeing on L2.

[kirk 6] 23/11/2015 17:07

Why can't you buy them I've bought 12m rights on direct market access today

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 16:58

Remarkable after hours trades on LMIN if I'm seeing correct, 10 minutes apart.

5.7m trade at 0.071p, followed by 40m trade at 0.10p followed by another 10m at 0.09p!

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 16:55

Kirk6, couldn't agree with you more - indeed it is time to buy the rights but how does one get them when the regular trading platforms are letting us sell LMIN but not buy them!

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 16:53

Grbaker. Thanks for your excellent post on POG. I wasn't around at the time but have been trying to piece together the various parts to see what parallels (if any) there is to the LMI situation.

The difference here I think is that POG as I understand it only had eventual 35% take up of the RI so 65% were left in the hands of the underwriters Merrill Lynch and sub underwriters. At LMI from what I can see, there appears strong demand for the RI with PIC wanting an additional 25% and unnamed stated others wanting (say) 5%.

Whether they can't get that 30% I would doubt from what I am seeing so far, but 'dark pools' appear at play with possible well placed II's wanting them plus a current arbitrage between LMI/LMIN. Also as this BB's regular poster Careful puts it, PI's can currently buy and sell LMI, sell LMIN but not buy LMIN!

Suggests something is at play here ....., all while Macquarie have put a value on the right of 0.40p against a final TERP right element of 0.19p...!

Don't whether you agree with that or care to post back but thank you for your spreadsheets as well.

[kirk 6] 23/11/2015 16:52

Extremely cheap in comparison.

[kirk 6] 23/11/2015 16:52

Time to buy the rights

[kojak78] 23/11/2015 16:37

I think the metal prices will turn here or in early December. But the Rand could rise too if metal prices turn and that could break the SA miners.

Amcu will wait until they can strike in the whole gold sector. The court might rule they cannot. Then it will be a strike against a single company, Sibanye. Sibanye going bust would be the most logical thing.

1. high gearing in balance sheet
2. strike at Driefontmein and Kloof for several months
3. higher costs in gold mining, even Harmony managed to increase grades
3. Rustenburg split between Lonmin and Implats - IF prices are right
4. No more strikes due to the Sibanye collapse
5. No more unreasonable wage demands
6. Num regains its position as Amcu will be blamed for the collapse
7. Beatrix + Wits Gold acquisitions in the Free State to Harmony
8. Driefontein to Anglogolds Mponeng (finally!), Kloof too
9. Anglogold spinoff of SA mines possible?

It all depends on so many minor things that we cannot predict what will happen. But I am sure the next 6-12 months will be one of the most volatile and interesting times in SA precious metals mining.

[grbaker] 23/11/2015 16:29

lazyhisnibs...

IMHO Sapinda were trying to scupper POG's RI, for some reason best known to themselves. They put out quite a few news stories, pushing their alternative solution. They, however, failed to mention (continually) that their 'solution' would have left POG's already beleaguered and p*ssed off shareholders (of which I was, and still am, one) with a compulsory 20.16% dilution.

They also carefully timed their holdings RNSs to give the impression that they were steadily acquiring enough shares to stop the RI (by voting no).

Holders able to take up all their rights, under POG's RI offer, maintained their percentage holding.

In the end, Sapinda failed to vote all of their shares... it was very unclear what they were actually trying to achieve.

It is also interesting that even the bondholders put out a press release stating that they did not support Sapinda. The Company (POG) also stated in a RNS that Sapinda had been unable to prove they had the funds available to back their alternative solution.

It was bizarre, to say the least. The whole thing was a fuster cluck of epic proportions. It is luck that POG has survived; and it still remains to be seen how the business fares over the next few years and beyond.

I appreciate this is all off topic to LMI; so apologies if anybody is annoyed by my posting here!

POG's NPRs were also hard to trade at the time, I recall.

P.S. I did a RI calculator for POG, while the RI was occurring. It can (obviously) be used for any RI (if you put in the correct share price, number of shares etc.) and can be downloaded here, if anybody wants it for free:



I also did a spreadsheet covering Sapina's 'offer':


GLA.

P.P.S. I hold no LMI and have no position.



lazyhisnibs 23 Nov'15 - 15:07 - 6551 of 6556 0 0

To MW

If you're still around then my late post (6517)in respect of POG didn't get in to Sapinda's role although I had mentioned it here when petro was less topical. What do you think Sapinda's original intent was? Their last ditch attempt to muscle-in was to argue more funding was needed and they would put it up at an equivalence of 3.5p. I guess it was their buying that moved the old price strongly off 6.3p which is where it bottomed after the second RI RNS but before XX.

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 15:33

Careful, similar to the IG Platform on Friday when no shorting allowed after 10am (I think). But who is 'buying' LMIN then? A dark pool if not day trader PI's?

[careful] 23/11/2015 15:29

I tried to play tunes on the difference between LMI and LMIN on my Halifax trading account.

They will allow me to buy or sell LMI.
They will allow me to sell LMIN.
They refuse to let me buy LMIN.

What a racket!

it was an obvious move to sell my LMI and replace with LMIN.
..NO CHANCE.

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 15:27

Careful at these LMI/LMIN prices, is the combined market cap now just above $400m? I make it about $430m, i think.

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 15:20

I agree careful, crazy times, just wondering if we will see like Friday the LMI / LMIN arb gap narrow as we come up to 4.30pm?

Remember the share price held up at 10p:1p last week, when the gloom sayers predicted all the way down to 1p. Actually 12p:1p when you think the small spike it had on Wednesday 17th (Record Date)

[careful] 23/11/2015 15:13

I certainly agree with your analysis elvis.
But recent experience has taught me to have little faith in the powerful people who arrange these things.
It reminds me of when gordon Brown allowed Lloyds to buy HBOS.
They were all so incompetent.

I will take up my rights and hope.

The the value of my holding (lmi + lmin) has halved since last week.
I expected chaos during this period, but this investment is not for widows and orphans.

[lazyhisnibs] 23/11/2015 15:07

To MW

If you're still around then my late post (6517)in respect of POG didn't get in to Sapinda's role although I had mentioned it here when petro was less topical. What do you think Sapinda's original intent was? Their last ditch attempt to muscle-in was to argue more funding was needed and they would put it up at an equivalence of 3.5p. I guess it was their buying that moved the old price strongly off 6.3p which is where it bottomed after the second RI RNS but before XX.

To Chris,

"Will this not push down Platinum $ price even further? Or do you think this is factored in already to the Platinum prices? Some thoughts please."

On a multi month view rather than a multi minute view if Yellen's FOMC lets the dollar index make 100 strong support then I can't see platinum and the rand doing anything other than continuing to fall in value. For pt until stocks are depleted by demand exceeding supply sufficiently to get noticed. Will the weakening rand and pt continue to roughly balance each other out? Who knows.

The RBSA has arguably already done two interest rate hikes in relatively quick succession in readiness for the Fed's move. Daft as it may seem with such high unemployment and a wobbly economy who's to say they won't do a third or even a fourth. Raising rates in a weak economy is unlikely to strengthen the rand for long. Beyond the short term tt will make SA's inflation rate worse though through imported inflation. Just my opinion.

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 15:06

Careful, it's still not massive volumes on the rights, maybe will touch 1% today, but your right. In Tesco speak, 'every little helps' for those lining up a change of ownership master plan.

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 15:03

Careful re 6547, it's certainly doom and gloom time for the miners, and you can't discount this. We've had the dot.com, financial crisis as you say, maybe one of the big guys may go bust but don't think it will be Lonmin or its cash burn / relative position in sector. This BB has debated the latter, and the II's will have worked out the picture on Lonmin's business plan (cash flow neutral after capx etc) in their one on ones with Magara before they signed the cheque (in my view).

[careful] 23/11/2015 15:01

This company is experiencing a change of ownership right now.
Someone must be buying up the rights at 0.07.

The original shares (LMI) are irrelevant now they are ex rights
and only about 3% of the company.

[careful] 23/11/2015 14:57

on a more practical note the commodity rout continues.
Platinum trading below $850/oz.

I am beginning to wonder if any of these miners can survive at these levels.
The big boys will be declaring huge losses at this rate.
And LMI could experience 'cash burn' followed by a share price collapse and nationalisation.

First the dot com collapse, then the banks went bust.
The multi billion TARP programme in America saved many industries including the motor industry and insurance.

is it now the turn of the miners?

[luisfrg] 23/11/2015 14:52

LMin is 0.07?

[elvisrocks] 23/11/2015 14:50

Tony/Typo

Weird why people are buying LMI, weird why the arb still exists, but most weird is why people arn't piling in at these LMIN prices (even allowing for further falls). Are the 'really big' buys on LMIN going to come after the close maybe?

[careful] 23/11/2015 14:49

share price way out of line with rights price.
although there is the spread to allow for.

this can only mean that investors are dumping most of their rights to reduce exposure.
tail swallowing etc.