Longboat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[darcon] 23/11/2023 12:31:12

Good post Zengas.

I also hope they use part of the Japex available loan to fund the minor production deal not so much for the leverage, but just so that they go through the motions of signing and completing the necessary loan documentation with Japex. That would make a follow-on investment utilising the Japex loan quicker to execute a second time.

[zengas] 23/11/2023 12:18:23

250 now v up to 300 boepd which was then expected to double from the 5 wells.

In Q1 Statfjord Ost had gross production from 1 well of 5,200 boepd = 250 boepd to LBE JV.

Q1 Sygna field was producing a gross 1,300 boepd from 1 well = 60 boepd net to LBE JV.

The 5 new infill production wells were being drilled in Statford OST.
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Today -

The fourth of five new infill wells in Statfjord Øst has now been successfully drilled.

Overall, project execution is on track with the Statfjord Øst and Sygna fields expected to be fully on stream from all wells early in the new year.

Initial production for 2023 is estimated to be around 250 boepd net to Longboat JAPEX, which is slightly lower than anticipated mainly due to a delay in bringing the new wells on stream.

Production is expected to increase significantly early in 2024 when all wells will be brought on stream. Gas-lift installation is completed.
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So all new wells will be brought on stream ealy 2024.

If we are averaging 250 boepd - then the 1 well at Statford Ost must still be significantlty producing as there's only a reduction of 60 boepd from the overall 310 boepd in Q1 2023.

Will be interesting to see what the Statford Ost wells come on at.

Each well doing 1,000 boepd would be 48 boepd to the LBE JV.

Get any production numbers much higher ie compared to the one S/OST well producing 5,200 boepd in Q1 and it could be significant so not long to wait as we were getting 250 boepd in Q1 23 from this alone.

Also the effective date was 1/1/23 so should be a deduction to the headline price and there will be adjustments i expect re minimum production levels etc.

[darcon] 23/11/2023 10:53:18

Their new November presentation can be downloaded from their presentations page:

[darcon] 23/11/2023 10:28:40

Their announcement pushes back the anticipated completion date of the transaction with INPEX Idemitsu from by the end of the year (see 3 July announcement) to now being "expected in in (sic) January". They deleted a word there. I wonder what it was. Why the delay? What is potentially delaying the transaction into next year?

The initial production is also slightly lower being around 250 boepd net to Longboat Japex. On 3 July they stated a figure of about "300 boepd net to Longboat Norge (based on NPD figures to 30 April 2023)"

They also said on 3 July that production is anticipated to "approximately double in 2024 following completion of the in-fill drilling programme". They now say that "production is expected to increase significantly early in 2024 when all wells will be brought on stream." They haven't used the word "double". Are they less confident of production doubling? Significantly could still mean doubling or more. Unclear.

So some questions to ask there.

Have they now completed the Topaz Number One Limited acquisition? Will an announcement be made about that?

I am excited by the potential M&A that their beefed up SE Asia team can now execute on. M&A takes time. However, others may be impatient and/or may think there is time to buy the stock later.

[sogoesit] 23/11/2023 10:26:38

Well, Words are not Deeds, as we know.

[bumpa33] 23/11/2023 10:10:11

distinctly meh reaction from the mkt to that news… 🙄

[bumpa33] 23/11/2023 07:24:20

Operational update out, Helge using some very bullish language there, another investor meet next Tuesday…

"The timing of our entry into the SE Asia region has been excellent given the exceptionally active M&A market. We are excited about the many and varied opportunities available to us and with our highly experienced team and excellent relationships. We are confident that we will deliver considerable growth and create substantial shareholder value in the period ahead."

[darcon] 23/11/2023 06:09:13

Also interesting is that Japex recently announced on 20 Nov 23 progress on their carbon capture project with Petronas in Malaysia:

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LBE has a JV with Japex in Norway. LBE's partner on Block 2A (Kertang prospect) in Malaysia and in which LBE are operator is Petronas. If Japex and Petronas are working on other projects together in Malaysia that ought to make it easier for Japex to one day consider expanding its efforts in Malaysia to potentially funding an exploration drill there with LBE and Petronas, and also "green" the project with appropriate carbon offsetting or capture.

[darcon] 23/11/2023 05:47:56

There were a few mentions of Longboat Energy PLC and Longboat JAPEX Norge AS (the JV vehicle) in Japex's presentation dated 10 Nov 23 on its financial results for the six months ended 30 Sept 23:



There's nothing material here of which we're not aware from LBE RNSs.

In the section of their presentation titled "Major Business Progress in the First Half of FY3//24 Japex mention "Capital participation in a subsidiary of U.K.-based Longboat Energy PLC (Longboat JAPEX Norge AS : LBJ) which promotes exploration and development in offshore Norway (May)"

In Japex's business overview in section 6 of their slide deck they have a separate row in their table covering for their "Norway: Offshore Blocks (Longboat Japex Norge AS)" JV with LBE. They describe it as "Exploration/Development".

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So the only takeaway I think here is that Japex regard their LBE JV in Norway as "major business" for them, and they've positioned the JV in their business strategy section as something they'll report on separately in the future.

[bumpa33] 21/11/2023 21:06:41

Fund to Fund Jeanesy, Investec don’t make a market in LBE…

[jeanesy] 21/11/2023 18:47:58

what about the 190k transfers then .. buys?

[bumpa33] 21/11/2023 13:26:10

Stiffel (house broker) and Peel Hunt both bidding 100k over mid, Cavendish (joint house) 36k over mid, Marex have some stock available at 19, after that it’s 19.6. Investec did the business in the 600k transfers yesterday. Is there something on the horizon…

[ripvanwinkle3] 17/11/2023 12:02:01

Not sure if many picked up on the fact that it seems like the very large Carmen discovery announced over the summer (DNO, Wellesley) extends into Longboat's Kveikje licence area. It's something they touched on in a recent presentation. Could be significant.

[hubs] 17/11/2023 11:25:05

Just picked up 2k worth for 20.30, this should be a great price one day...gla.

[sogoesit] 16/11/2023 17:14:10

Something has leaked, for sure...

[bumpa33] 16/11/2023 13:43:55

To get to something like fair value here and now the company could do with upping its IR/PR a bit perhaps but I really liked the new guy from Topaz, really put the investment case into view with enthusiasm and made it easy to grasp the enormity and scope for the layman. Helge and Co are pretty ‘dry’ in comparison , mkt needs to be excited, at least a bit. Not suggesting they go down the UPL path or anything..!

[zengas] 16/11/2023 13:24:19

40p would still be only £22m m/cap.

Between Kveijke & Oswig for the JV there could be 6-14 mmboe recoverable on those 2 discoveries alone.

Oswig South to drill next year along with Lotus.

Oswig South could double the numbers and an analogue to the adjacent Tune field that's produced 140 mmboe.

The 2 small initial producing assets estimated to double to 600 boepd enough to run the company as is. $100m of Japex funding for further Norwegian acquisitions.

Would expect £50m m/cap at least to be achievable from operations in Norway alone.

Build a seperate arm in South East Asia on production deals there etc with the blue sky potential of Block 2A.

[chutes01] 16/11/2023 12:45:59

Prod deal for LBE/JAPEX to be released, Norway/Malaysia behemoth in the making,just too cheap at these levels
Chart looking up at 40p

[ripvanwinkle3] 16/11/2023 10:59:11

The accumulation continues. When the stale and overexposed cease selling, it really doesn't take much buying at all to propel these upwards from this lowly share price

[piperpeter] 15/11/2023 14:25:37

May interest a few here...

MEN's Paraguay oil exploration well surely now must be very close to spudding.

260mmbbls of Pmean unrisked resources.

Cavendish's opinion from the Morning Note 25 October...

"The prospects have a fairly low 17% geological chance of success, but still offers very significant upside in the success case. Assuming a 5% recovery factor, we estimate the unrisked NPV of the Delray prospects is >$100m (>£8/sh) net to MEN".

Market cap GBP 8.9 million.
86p current share price.
10.6 million Shares in issue.

Pp.

[bumpa33] 13/11/2023 07:22:36

Good post ZENGAS, It’s simply a waiting game, there’s a lot of value out there in this depressed mkt but imo none more so than here…

[darcon] 13/11/2023 07:06:59

FT article about more trouble in the LNG market, this time from a commercial LNG investment and supply dispute:



Some excerpts:

"Shell and BP have asked Washington and Brussels to intervene in a bitter dispute with Venture Global LNG, warning the company’s refusal to honour a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas supply contracts threatens Europe’s energy security.

In correspondence seen by the Financial Times, the oil majors accuse the US LNG provider of “misconduct” for withholding cargo agreed under long-term supply contracts and instead selling LNG on the spot market."

"The supermajors, alongside Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s Edison, are among several foundation customers embroiled in contract arbitration with Venture Global. Foundation customers agree long-term contracts that help LNG providers attract financing to build their projects."

"Venture Global’s first LNG facility, Calcasieu Pass, located on the Gulf coast in Louisiana, commenced producing LNG in January 2022 and exported its first cargo two months later. But the company argues it has not yet started full commercial operations and is not obliged to supply foundation customers until the commissioning is completed.

It has declared “force majeure” on its contractual commitments on the grounds that the facility’s power supply equipment needs repair.

Shell said the company’s excuse does not withstand scrutiny, as the facility has delivered more than 200 cargo shipments to customers. The nearly 600-day commissioning period for Calcasieu Pass defies industry standards, it added."

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In my view the longer-term consequences of this dispute will be (1) LNG investors/buyers will tighten up their contract terms in negotiations on LNG investments (2) LNG customers will seek the advantages of being part owners of LNG producers and will want more influence on the corporate governance decision-making of the relevant LNG operator.

So it's another tailwind for attracting partners for exploration drilling on LBE's multi-TCF Malaysian Kertang prospect. LBE is currently operator for the Kertang block.

[darcon] 12/11/2023 10:06:53

Link to today’s FT article about implications on the LNG market of US sanctions on the operator of Russia’s LNG-2 project:



Some excerpts:

“in early November, the US State Department announced sanctions on a new Russian development known as Arctic LNG 2 — in effect blocking countries in Europe and Asia from buying the project’s gas when it starts producing next year, according to officials, lawyers and analysts.”
[…]
“The investors in Arctic LNG 2 are able to take gas from the project according to their shareholding. For Total and its partners in the joint venture, that would mean about 2mn tons when the project is at full production. But under the sanctions, shareholders have until the end of January next year to wind down their investments.”

“a Japanese joint venture between trading house Mitsui & Co and government-backed Jogmec, each [hold] 10 per cent stakes”

“The US has not directly targeted Russia’s other major LNG projects, Yamal LNG and Sakhalin 2, which are shipping the fuel to Europe and Asia.”

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As I have mentioned before the above situation creates a favourable tailwind for attracting partners for exploration drilling on LBE’s Malaysian Kertang prospect.

[ripvanwinkle3] 10/11/2023 15:06:40

Great post ZENGAS. I've been onboard here a while, and very excited about Kertang. Expecting the market will wake up to this at some point..