Longboat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ohisay] 10/9/2023 17:21

OilmanJim tonight .
Longboat Energy (United Kingdom: LBE) has an indirect interest in the Velocette exploration well, which is currently being drilled offshore Norway. It’s a significant well with a 177 million barrel of oil equivalent gross un-risked resource estimate and a 30% chance of success. LBE’s current market capitalisation is around £13 million and its 50.1% interest in the Norwegian subsidiary, Longboat JAPEX Norge AS, is worth approximately the same based on the $16 million initial investment received into the JV from the Japan Petroleum Exploration Company for its 49.9% stake. However, a further investment of up to $30 million into the subsidiary will be made by JAPEX in the event of a successful discovery on the Velocette well.
Regardless, JAPEX is providing the subsidiary with a $100 million facility to finance acquisitions and associated development costs, which offers shareholders in Longboat a significant degree of gearing.

This is just another way of saying that Velocette at the current LBE Mcap is as close to a free hit as any well you are ever going to be invested in.But of course dyor.

[hubs] 01/9/2023 14:15

Thanks Sogoesit, I thought there was one around 22-23p, so hopefully filled anyway, and lets hope we never get near that other gap!

[optmist] 01/9/2023 12:08

Going up with every purchase

[chutes01] 01/9/2023 11:53

Paydirt at Velocette, this will ignite with the additional payment from Japex, only 50M shares
Further prod contracts will add to daily revenue figs.

[sogoesit] 01/9/2023 11:50

Last gap on the Daily I can see is on 2 May from 9.3 to 14.3.
Are folks expecting that to be filled or are they working on other noise scales?

[hubs] 01/9/2023 10:29

Is the gap filled, anyone?
Dipped in this morning for a few more, even a tiny rise in the offer, first for a while...

[dbnout76] 01/9/2023 09:12

Disappointing drop here

[ohisay] 30/8/2023 09:41

The authorities plan to announce which companies will be offered shares in APA 2023 early in the new year – 2024.

Companies applying for acreage are: Aker BP, Concedo, ConocoPhillips, DNO, Equinor, Harbour Energy, INPEX Idemitsu, KUFPEC, Lime Petroleum, Longboat JAPEX, M Vest Energy, Neptune Energy, OKEA, OMV, Pandion Energy, Petrolia NOCO, PGNiG Upstream, Repsol, Shell, Source Energy, Sval Energi, TotalEnergies, Vår Energi, Wellesley Petroleum, Wintershall Dea.

[greedfear] 29/8/2023 11:48

Thank you.

[e43] 29/8/2023 11:36

Point about 2days rns is production at Statfjord 6months ahead of schedule so cashflow should be quite good when the acquisition completes for the JV

[sogoesit] 29/8/2023 10:20

;-))

Add some more days if a discovery...

[greedfear] 29/8/2023 08:56

Thank you for your trouble. But as far as I can see there is no indication of when drill results are to be expected. Or am I overlooking it?

[dbnout76] 29/8/2023 08:48

Read RNS dated 8th August

[greedfear] 29/8/2023 08:35

Thank you for your kind reply. Care to share where LBE stated how long it will take?

[dbnout76] 29/8/2023 08:28

Are you unable to read for yourself?

[greedfear] 29/8/2023 08:11

When to expect Velocette drilling results? Someone?

[lisat3] 29/8/2023 07:50

RSN - continued progress


(;_;)/~~~

[ohisay] 18/8/2023 11:13

On the whole a very well researched piece ..

[ohisay] 17/8/2023 09:54

"Still very busy in the M/A market not just Velocette..."

[sogoesit] 16/8/2023 09:05

Indeed the game is not random; it is stochastic! ;-)
But neither is it scientific!

But is it like investing?
Taleb gives you his answers in "Fooled by Randomness".
Or, just take a "random walk down wall street" for the experience!

Good "luck" ;-)!

[hpcg] 15/8/2023 16:34

Sogoesit - you are correct mathematically. Indeed the odds of eventually flipping a head in repeated coin tosses is never 1 because the odds only ever approach 1, they never reach one. On the other hand do it long enough an the heads vs tails frequency will tend toward 1/2 but will only be exactly that some of the time.

I don't think this mathematics can be precisely applied to oil exploration because these are not random discrete events. I would expect a half decent asset team working in a mature and understood basin to hit 1 or more target over 4 30% drills, and a bad asset team to hit none over twice as many. From what I recall the Faroe Oil and Gas team had a pretty strong hit rate. If you like the odds of the odds are favourable because the game is not random. To put it another way, based on the data, we already know that the results of, for want of a much better term, the coin toss series, is 1/3. We have no idea of, and what frankly doesn't have a meaning, is are the individual odds for each drill.

A better way of putting it is that the true odds could only be assessed by drilling at the node of a kilometre grid. Then we could work out the odds of a random well on that grid, presumably well under 1%. It is pretty clear that explorers do much better than random.

As you say, plenty of junior oil companies have wiped out drilling consecutive uneconomic wells. So in my opinion conventional risk discounting is the way to go, and that the upside should be worth the risk. That and don't put much of one's personal capital on the line.

[sogoesit] 14/8/2023 12:27

Nope...
(Need to think about the Coin Toss Problem. No matter how many times you toss an evenly weighted coin the probability of getting a heads, or tails, on the next toss is 50%, never greater, to infinity).

You need to use the Binomial Distribution for discrete probability of success trials each having the same probability of success.

Refer here:


I think BP did a major study on the Norwegian Basin in its maturity which found that the chance of success was about 35% for an exploration well iirc.

More recent activity suggests higher probabilities of success, here:



Also worth reading up on the main issue in Petroleum Exploration which is that of Gambler's Ruin and solving for how much money one needs to "stay in the game" given a well cost, the chance of success for each well and the number of wells to be drilled (Binomial Distribution).

Good "Luck" all holders!

[hpcg] 11/8/2023 15:31

greedfear - three unconnected 30% chance of success makes a 90% chance of one being a success. Note though that in reality with oil exploration the CoS is a bit finger in the air, if informed by history. It isn't a true mathematical chance. I think somewhat more important is the prospects for successful development and what that means for the company.