Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[minerve 2] 16/8/2020 22:58

I wouldn’t be stupid enough to get anywhere near this position in the first place!

;)

[mitchy] 16/8/2020 22:54

More talk of inflation this week-end in the press. Which is going to blow first...that or Yellowstone?

[icejelly] 16/8/2020 22:41

And suggest your strategy

[poikka] 16/8/2020 21:22

I guess at some stage within the next 12 months, hopefully, vaccinations will be taking place and spending will take-off, along with some inflation. Banks might look a bit better then.

[essentialinvestor] 16/8/2020 20:42

There are always reasons to be cautious, you will never find
a year that does not give a multitude of such reasons.

The main risk for Lloyds shareholders over the next 12 months imv
is one that gets little attention...whether existing holders
face dilution if Lloyds need to raise capital.

I don't pretend to know the answer to that, it may be worth staying mindful of.

[sikhthetech] 16/8/2020 20:16

Cobourg,

"the value investor embraces it and demands a margin of safety to reflect the unknown."

Exactly..

risk/reward.. to ensure as many of the down risk are factored in the price...

eg I drip fed in after the divi was dropped as it took that uncertainty away...

Everyone will have their own risk/reward, opinion of risks and at what price those downside risks are factored into the price...

[cobourg1] 16/8/2020 19:42

Sikh - funnily enough I have just come across this on 321gold,

"Reasons to (not) be cheerful"

Picking a paragraph out,

"The U.S. stock market looks increasingly like the hapless Wile E. Coyote, running off the edge of a cliff in pursuit of the pesky Roadrunner but not yet realizing the ground beneath his feet had run out some time ago.

Investing is always about making decisions under a cloud of uncertainty. It is how one deals with the uncertainty that distinguishes the long-term value-based investor from the rest. Rather than acting as if the uncertainty doesn’t exist (the current fad), the value investor embraces it and demands a margin of safety to reflect the unknown. There is no margin of safety in the pricing of U.S. stocks today. Voltaire observed, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” The U.S. stock market appears to be absurd."

We're not the only ones concerned.

Before someone says this is off topic, it isn't. A falling Dow will drop the FTSE which in turn will drop Lloyds.

We must hope that it doesn't happen.

[xxxxxy] 16/8/2020 19:28

Barclays, where footfall is down up to 60pc compared with pre-Covid levels, said it would close two branches in London later this year after finding one was only being used by 80 people. More cuts are expected in the coming months.HSBC is to close 28 branches later this year, while Lloyds is months away from unfreezing its plan to axe 56 branches, something it aims to do by early next year at the latest after pausing the cuts due to coronavirus. Virgin Money has also dusted off plans to shut or merge 52 branches.... Daily Telegraph..The queues outside some banks particularly NatWest is by people rectifying their Internet accounts etc

[sikhthetech] 16/8/2020 18:29

Coburg,

"that's not the half of it IMO!"

Agree... there's also the US Presidential Election.. China-Taiwan, Dubai property market crash (already 30-50% lower over last 5 yrs).

I've never seen so many events come together in such a short space of time, which could cause a stock market crash.


The Business small loans & Help to Buy for new builds could end up being bad loans.

[jl5006] 16/8/2020 17:42

Phps L & G are a more stable divi payer>

[cobourg1] 16/8/2020 17:30

Sikh - you see potential trouble in:

US - China Trade wars.
China - India border clashes.
China - India/Australis/Japan/US tensions in South China Sea.
Turkey-EU - Tensions in East Med.
Covid19 - 2nd wave.

................................................................................

So do I, but that's not the half of it IMO!

Citibank and Deutsche Bank, basket cases with trillions of dollars of derivatives. Too big to fail and too big to bail.

A falling dollar which may ultimately collapse on loss of confidence and have to be supported with raised interest rates. Some think the dollar's days as a world reserve currency could be coming to an end. Even a rumour of a rise in interest rates would put the cat among the pigeons.

Mad King Donald doing something barmy to try to win the election.

The Crazies in Iran. What's happening there? They must be in a desperate way by now.
I assume that they are holding fire for the moment in the hope that Trump goes.

Another Black Swan like Covid-19. Who saw that one coming?

A bank or financial institution failure somewhere in the world requiring a bail out, spooking the markets. The failure of a small bank in Belgium is said by some to be the real beginning of the 1929 crash.



Massive liquidity is being created and is ending up in equities and precious metals causing bubbles, and we all know what happens to bubbles in the end. There's a lot of things that could go wrong.


I'm keeping my put options on the Dow open for the next few months as a hedge against my position in Lloyds. Very cheap insurance.

[mikemichael2] 16/8/2020 17:12

Why, i didn't think we did anything drastically different than all other nations?

[utrickytrees] 16/8/2020 17:04

5xy, they're replacing french with line dancing on the national curriculum.

[m_n_tomlinson] 16/8/2020 16:57

xxxxxy16 Aug '20 - 07:53 - 312525 of 312530
0 0 0
Banks step up plans to close branches and cut jobs in blow to Covid-hit high street

A major shift online and declining use of cash threaten to deal another hit to the high street


... Daily Telegraph



Is Daily Telegraph fake news?

Frankly this is not what I'm seeing. I see long queues outside all Banks and Building Societies, and the town has been so busy and chock a block this weekend, it's like everything the way it was before, only that people are wearing masks when they go into shops instead.

Do my eyes deceive me or is the Telegraph indeed fake news?

[xxxxxy] 16/8/2020 16:54

Don't know if really true. It is the Express. But it does sound good. Lovely warm feeling of Brexit....Brexit lift-off: UK could forge £20trillion trading bloc with US to 'eclipse EU'THE UK will forge a post-Brexit 'Anglophone alliance' with the United States worth an eye-watering £20 trillion, an expert has claimed, packing significantly more financial firepower than the European Union can muster.... Daily Express

[essentialinvestor] 16/8/2020 14:13

mitchy, the UK to this point has experienced the most severe downturn of
any advanced industrised nation barring Spain. Brexit is a longer term situation,
not what the market is focussed on atm re Lloyds.

[scruff1] 16/8/2020 10:22

I dont think any serious commentator now believes that joining the Euro would have been a good idea apart maybe from the usual liberal loons. Certainly none speaking latino.

[portside1] 16/8/2020 10:20

Avoid their home insurance

[gaffer73] 16/8/2020 09:31

I believe that was the plan all along and it almost happened. If we had stayed in the EU we would have become totally dependent on them in the next 5 years.