Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[k38] 03/10/2020 22:08

How the BBC save our money to pay massive salaries for their stars.. Byrepeating over and over thesame news 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

[utrickytrees] 03/10/2020 21:36

Very few people use public transport in wales.

[minerve 2] 03/10/2020 21:29

Nothing is as certain as a closed mind.

[maxk] 03/10/2020 20:54

Common sense.


Where has it gone?

[jl5006] 03/10/2020 20:45

Liam halligan economist d Tel
20 • 4:00pm
Liam Halligan
Very few senior economists are also talented writers. One who I think ticks both boxes is Andy Haldane. Last week, the Bank of England’s chief economist gave a well-crafted speech entitled “Avoiding Economic Anxiety”, riffing on a much-loved children’s story.

“Encouraging news about the present should not be drowned out by fears for the future,” said Haldane, to a Covid-compliant meeting of the Cheshire and Warrington Local Enterprise Partnership. “Now is not the time for the economics of Chicken Licken.”

This was the folklore fowl, of course, who felt an acorn drop on his head. Worried the sky would fall in, Chicken Licken whipped up terror among the other farmyard animals. Seeking refuge in the forest, they got eaten by a nasty fox.

Haldane’s point is that overly pessimistic views about the risk from coronavirus, and lockdown, are holding back the British economy. You may think that’s a brave argument, given that the Office for National Statistics just reported UK GDP shrank 19.8pc between April and June. When added to the 2.5pc first-quarter reduction, that confirms the deepest recession in recorded British history.

UK GDP has recovered to 2013 levels – but the pace of recovery is slowing
Line chart with 163 data points.
GDP index, monthly
View as data table, UK GDP has recovered to 2013 levels – but the pace of recovery is slowing
The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Range: 2006-11-12 16:48:00 to 2020-08-19 07:12:00.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Range: 75 to 110.
End of interactive chart.
Haldane argued, though, that the second-quarter monthly breakdown showed that while the economy fell off a cliff in April and May, when the lockdown was tightest, it bounced back strongly during June.

The media must avoid “catastrophising”, he said, lest ongoing bad outcomes become a self-fulfilling prophesy. “This is human nature at times of stress – but it can also make for an overly pessimistic popular narrative, which fosters fear, fatalism and excess caution.”

The UK faces an “unholy trinity of risks from Covid, unemployment and Brexit”, Haldane acknowledged, but the encouraging post-lockdown recovery “should not be overlooked”.

Forecasting 20pc quarter-on-quarter GDP growth when the July-to-September figures are published, he argued the economy could already be just 3-4pc smaller than before any of us had heard of Covid-19.

While readers may scoff, there is something in Haldane’s argument. Many journalists – especially broadcast journalists – do emphasise bad news. And few drill down beyond the basic headline numbers.

While retail sales collapsed in the face of the lockdown, we’ve since seen a clear V-shaped recovery. The latest data show strong growth during successive months from May through to August, with overall monthly sales now 4pc higher than in pre-lockdown February – although considerable volume has migrated from the high street to online.


I don’t buy Haldane’s projection, though, that unemployment will be limited to 7.5pc ­– or 2.5m people – by the end of this year. The Bank of England is pointing to the official jobless definition, which requires unemployed workers to be actively looking for work.

Few are, because of Covid – as Economic Agenda has been pointing out for months. Claimant count measures, based on those receiving unemployment-related benefits, are already up at 2.7m.

On top of that, there are another 3m on furlough. And a high proportion will unfortunately lose their jobs when the scheme ends at the end of this month, despite Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s recently announced incentives to keep workers on.

I’m sticking with my prediction, which it brings me no pleasure to repeat, that we’re looking at unemployment of up to 4m, over 12pc of the workforce.

That’s based less on any inherent pessimism than a close examination of HMRC payroll data and detailed discussions with Whitehall economists and other labour market specialists who, wisely perhaps, won’t talk on the record.

Rising again
Line chart with 151 data points.
The total Universal Credit and Jobseeker’s Allowance claimant count rose during July
View as data table, Rising again
The chart has 1 X axis displaying categories.
The chart has 1 Y axis displaying values. Range: 0.5 to 3.
End of interactive chart.
I also fear that Haldane, with good intentions, is underplaying the disastrous impact these latest lockdown measures – the rule of six, curfews and more stringent local restrictions – are now having on a whole range of businesses.

The city mayors of Liverpool, Leeds and Manchester just warned about renewed collapse in their respective retail and hospitality sectors following new anti-Covid controls. Highlighting the “huge, disproportionateR21; economic impact, they reported hotel occupancy cut to 30pc, with high street footfall up to 70pc down.

Many businesses, the mayors said in a joint letter to ministers, “face the prospect of a complete decimation in trade, not just in the short term but as we look ahead to the sector’s traditional lifeblood of the Christmas period and almost certainly continuing into spring/summer of next year”.


Their forecast of “mass market failure” and “huge redundancies” sounds entirely justified to me. While we are not yet back in full lockdown, the current restrictions are stymying some sizeable business sectors that, over the summer, seemed to be on the brink of recovery – not least events, entertainment and the arts. Transport firms also perhaps face a permanent reduction in demand as more people work from home.

Above all, as we move into winter, business leaders can sense that, whatever the emerging evidence, this Government remains hell-bent on using draconian lockdown measures to suppress the virus until a vaccine emerges.

Yes, daily Covid cases are roughly where they were back in April, at the height of the pandemic. But we’re now doing around 12 times more tests.

The daily hospitalisation rate of Covid patients, meanwhile, has fallen to just one-eighth of its spring peak, with the numbers unfortunately dying – the vast majority of whom are over-70s with pre-existing conditions – down from over 1,000 a day when cases were last this high, to low double-digits now.


The UK economy faces lots of risks but, as Haldane rightly argues, our collective future is not lost. Britain remains a world-class economy, full of brilliant, creative, entrepreneurial and, above all, hard-working people. We can and will bounce back.

Our biggest threat, though, would be a failure to rationally analyse and respond to the emerging evidence not just on Covid cases but, above all, hospitalisations and deaths.

An increasing number of highly reputable scientists and medics now back an age-stratified approach, shielding the elderly and vulnerable, while the rest of us build natural population immunity.

As the economic, emotional and human cost of lockdown grows, and with far more of us now dying from flu and pneumonia than Covid, pressure is growing for a wholesale change to our strategy. Covid is no acorn. But when it comes to dealing with this virus, we shouldn’t be Chicken Licken.

Related Topics

[jl5006] 03/10/2020 20:34

K38
The propaganda channel BBC will cause u immense harm - I have to say that the BBC has created more fear than should be.
Each year there is a flu type virus and many many ppl catch it - but nothing happens - some in poor condition - suffer more .
The death numbers are the only guide - and only as a result of are of interest.
So if nobody in Wales has died from C 19 since Jly why do we have the madness of lockdown!!!!!!!

[k38] 03/10/2020 20:20

I do not care about the death numbers, who kills most, flu or v19..all I care is do not be ME, so I follow the advise and more just to protect myself and my family who by the way do thesame.. protecting each others.

[cheshire pete] 03/10/2020 20:17

Has Barnier been sidelined now Von Leyen fronting up with Merkel lurking in the background. Don't fall for her charm Boris. No deal.

[poikka] 03/10/2020 19:57

First time I went to Wales, I was told that if you can see the hills, it's going to rain; and if you can't see them, it's raining.

[xxxxxy] 03/10/2020 19:28

And it is still raining in Wales.But more importantly.No DealWTO

[xxxxxy] 03/10/2020 19:21

Brian Price3 Oct 2020 6:44PMWhat awful things to wish someone dead, these people should be ashamed Trump is not a murderer. Shame on them, I don't like Corbyn but I would not wish him dead.26LikeReplyUrs Nordstern3 Oct 2020 6:50PM@Brian Price Yup, I agree Brian. And yes, I wouldn't want Corbyn dead either, even though he supports an organization that blew innocent British people to death in the 70s and 80s. At the end of the day, humanity is humanity, and we are finding out a lot about who has that and who doesn't these days.

[xxxxxy] 03/10/2020 19:16

The Left = Evil.

[xxxxxy] 03/10/2020 19:15

Anne Smith 3 Oct 2020 5:58PMre Trump - what has disgusted me, and upset me, is the vile, obscene, wicked, EVIL, outpourings of sheer hatred, bitternes, wickedness - NASTINESS - pure evil - from the Trump haters.Has really thrown the spotlight on their sheer nastiness, and inhumanity - and they talk about being 'woke' and 'liberal' - can't they just shut up, keep quiet, b---r off.Horrifying spectacle to listen, and read, their vile comments - filled with hatred - and they pretend to be so 'good'.Don't they realise just how much ordinary people, regardless of politices -DESPISE them and their hateful attitude. We can see them clearly now for exactly what they are -Pure Nasty, Pure Evil, and Vile beyond words............... 

[maxk] 03/10/2020 18:56

I suspect a lot of Americans will be looking at whats on offer, and quietly putting an X in the Trumpo box.


Who in their right mind would vote Dem? They might get Kamala by default if sleepy Joe falls off his perch.

[jl5006] 03/10/2020 18:49

Does biden think he is the avuncular - not like Eisenhower or De Gaulle tho -

[jl5006] 03/10/2020 18:43

Hilary was the last chance for the dems and she failed.
Biden - a mere octogenarian - not exactly sure to last the term - and why would an octogenarian ever want to be president??????

[tradejunkie2] 03/10/2020 18:37

Easy win for Biden now.

[investtofly] 03/10/2020 18:37

Get well soon Donald.We need people like you standing up for your own citizens.Here in the U.K. we are too frightened to say Boo To A Goose in case it upsets them. That's why this country is such a state

[xxxxxy] 03/10/2020 17:56

Trump.Wish him well.Great Leader for Freedom.Great Leader for Free Thought.Great Trump.Great USA