Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[maxk] 03/8/2020 15:02

From the ticker:



Gilead Shows the Dangers of Covid-19 Drug Mania -- Heard on the Street
03/08/2020 12:29pm
Dow Jones News

Johnson and Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
Intraday Stock Chart

Monday 3 August 2020

Click Here for more Johnson and Johnson Charts.By Charley Grant
Researchers are racing to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, and investors are in a mad dash to profit from it. The financial side of this exercise is likely to run into trouble.

Promising news in the hunt for a vaccine continues to pour in. Several companies have revealed encouraging, albeit preliminary, data in clinical trials, and the U.S. government has its wallet wide open to defray research and manufacturing expenses. GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi said Friday that the U.S. government will pay up to $2.1 billion to develop and manufacture a Covid-19 vaccine. Other companies such as Moderna and AstraZeneca have received similar contracts. These deals include the upfront purchase of hundreds of millions of doses if trials prove successful. Heavyweights Merck & Co. and Johnson & Johnson also have candidates in development.

While it won't be clear if any candidate is successful until at least the fall, investors aren't waiting around. A broad index of biotechnology stocks has surged 65% since March. Within that group, the Covid-19 vaccine makers have led the way, both large and small. The gain in market value for these companies since the spring matches the total value of some major drugmakers that generate roughly $20 billion in annual sales.

There are ample reasons for caution, despite the clearly positive news. For starters, most drug candidates in development don't reach the market. Huge research investments won't change that reality.

And, even if successful, pricing power may not be as strong as investors are hoping. The first round of doses are already paid for and priced into stocks. Pfizer and its partner BioNTech, which didn't take any government research funding, have a contract to deliver 100 million doses for a total of $1.95 billion. That comes out to about $39 per two-dose treatment.

Companies that hope to charge more than that over the long term will need to meet a very high safety and efficacy bar to make their case -- especially those that took public funds upfront. While drug pricing hasn't attracted much scrutiny this election cycle, it has been a recurring theme in American politics with major consequences for shareholders. That dynamic likely makes visions of windfall profits more dream than reality.

Granted, some risk-taking is always necessary to make money in biotech. And story stocks have a way of maintaining their upward momentum while hopes for the future are still intact -- particularly in today's euphoric investing environment.

But investors shouldn't forget that hot drug stocks can suddenly plunge even if things go according to plan. Gilead Sciences shares surged nearly 25% from March to April as anticipation built for its antiviral Covid-19 treatment remdesivir, but the stock has since lost nearly all of that ground. Those losses came despite a string of successes: The drug has been authorized for emergency use, and Gilead began selling it this summer after donating its initial supply. Last week, the company increased the midpoint of its 2020 adjusted profit guidance to $6.95 a share from $6.25.

Don't dismiss the possibility that Gilead's descent will repeat itself on a much larger, uglier scale.

Write to Charley Grant at [e-mail]

[dope007] 03/8/2020 14:54

Apple $440 LOFL's

[carlcjasper] 03/8/2020 14:49

Would they be down 3% today

[alphorn] 03/8/2020 14:49

G2 ...catching you up then.

[carlcjasper] 03/8/2020 14:49

Nice bump up today where's the all the shorts today ?

[grahamite2] 03/8/2020 14:47

You're not quite brain dead, Alphorn. Getting there, though.

[freddie01] 03/8/2020 14:46

Aldi plans to launch Amazon Go-style cashierless stores as it requests product recognition tech

[alphorn] 03/8/2020 14:44

So there is general agreement from the brain dead that David Davis was a weakling without his own opinion.

....now they are all wonderful I presume?

Not the most inquiring of minds here - to be polite.

[maxk] 03/8/2020 14:40

Seeing as you are at a loose end...

[maxk] 03/8/2020 14:36

Medication time Min...

[grahamite2] 03/8/2020 14:19

Geoffrey Howe said, "It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain."

This was exactly the position David Davies was put in. The old bag made it impossible for him to function.

[mikemichael2] 03/8/2020 14:16

Apparently all those who voted to stay in the EU will have to self isolate, and take brain altering drug treatment to help them get over it!!!

[utrickytrees] 03/8/2020 14:09

Alphorn, Teresa May's advisors that used to ponce about in dungarees & kicker boots like a fkin swiss on a sabbatical were all remainers, Hammond was a fkin EU plant, so was May, the whole damn government was. DD & Raab were put thrre to create the Brexit illusion & soon threw in the towel when they realised their efforts were being thwarted at a higher level. Well done Raab for driving through change, the government fell much to the disbelief of the EU. Just Whithall to clear out now.

[hamhamham1] 03/8/2020 13:48

Bought another 50,000 of these early this morning.
These and NWG gonna give 10% + divis on these levels within a couple of years.

[hamhamham1] 03/8/2020 13:47

Hopefully Q2 results day will prove to be the low point for a lot of companies.

[alphorn] 03/8/2020 13:33

Ut - so David Davis, as an example, was a arch Whitehall Remainer was he? A nutcase if there was ever one.

“Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the CEO’s will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door demanding that there be no barriers to German access to the British market.”

"Davis also predicted that Britain would be already trading with new, exciting partners by 24 June 2018"


..........at least he got something right:
"I don’t have to be very clever, I don’t have to know that much......."

Rather sums you up as well Ut.

[scruff1] 03/8/2020 13:31

Not 4.30 yet Smarty

[smartypants] 03/8/2020 13:17

You know British banks are so much healthier then they were 2 days ago!

[minerve 2] 03/8/2020 13:16

"it's only a matter of time before he gets a dangerous dog and a tattoo."

You mean like you?

Have a frontal lobotomy and end-up chopping branches for a living.

ROFLMAO!

(No thanks, it would 'do my head in')