Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[pierre oreilly] 24/3/2020 07:52

At least I have the guts to post my views for all to see, even knowing 98percent of readers will think I'm a raving maniac. You dare only post snide remarks even though you know you'll get 98 percent support for your views.

[smartie6] 24/3/2020 07:43

I am of the same opinion that the dividend will be cut. As more companies decide the same the weight becomes far easier for Lloyds to do too.
My main concern is if you’re a RBS shareholder as the moves on there over the last 2 trading days appears that they’re ready to drop this a lot lower. Which led me to believe that RBS would cut the dividend over the next 2days. Hard to believe but we may see RBS at 80p this week.

[pierre oreilly] 24/3/2020 07:42

No virology PhD necessary toerag. It's common knowledge that infections follow a Gaussian curve, just like many things in nature, science and engineering. Only average intelligence needed.

[tygarreg] 24/3/2020 07:33

Pierre I am surprised the top epidemeoligisists have not consulted with you before deciding strategy. Where did you get your doctorate in virus transmission?

[marmar80] 24/3/2020 07:30

What was the last year divi here?

[xxxxxy] 24/3/2020 07:17

Handling the economic damage
By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: MARCH 24, 2020
The epidemiologists advising the government have succeeded in persuading them to lock down as much of the country as possible. The aim is to stop the spread, and so reduce the numbers needing hospital treatment. The earlier policy of trace and isolate did not prevent escalation, though it may have slowed the progress of the disease as the advisers hoped.

Given this, the best outcome now must be a severe but short lived clampdown with a resulting drop in numbers getting the disease, followed by some relaxations to get more people back into work. The worst outcome would be little progress with getting numbers down and a decision to carry on with many closures in the hope that the policy will sometime start to work as planned. A middle course is likely with a longer period of clampdown and some success with braking the rate of increase.

What does this do to the economy? More than 40% of it, the private sector not involved in food and food retail , pharmaceuticals, utilities and other basics will take a big hit. The obvious sectors that have been closed down will lose all their revenue, but it is likely new cars, new homes, discretionary purchases will all be cut back, some severely. We will see falls in output and incomes of a magnitude we have never seen before in a recession. They have come on us suddenly.

If the government aid for companies is administered well and promptly, and extended to the self employed, then many businesses will survive and be available to supply and serve us again as soon as restrictions are lifted. If the banks use the government guarantees well and make some of the ample liquidity to them available as affordable loans, that too will help see many more companies through the low or no turnover phase.

It is going to be much easier for companies to revive and bounce back if the gap is not too long. More visibility on timetables would be helpful to those deciding whether their business can battle on and on how much they need to borrow to bridge the gap.

The government should give us scenarios based on better control of the virus to give some hope that these restrictions are temporary. They can say that the short term closure model is more likely if we all co-operate and observe as much social distancing and isolation as our roles allow.

As of today we face the loss of a large number of self employed businesses without more financial support, and even the loss of businesses covered by the financial support scheme announced who nonetheless are losing so much business from virus related effects and have large non employee costs..

It is nonetheless the case that the UK economy will lose a lot of output from March onwards and that cannot return until the bans are lifted. Jobs will also be lost if the government financial support is not readily available at scale. The longer the closures and bans continue, the more businesses will give up and make their staff redundant to stop the losses.

Commercial rents will fall, dividends will be cut, pension funds will have much bigger deficits and businesses in trouble will have problems raising capital. There will be large falls in investment.

This is now happening all over the advanced world where similar policies are being followed. I wish the experts and governments every success in limiting this disease . They also need to recognise that the serious economic damage being done to try to arrest the progress of the disease is going to get very severe unless there is a relatively short time limit on the shut downs and financial help for all in the meantime.

[asa8] 24/3/2020 07:12

I bet the travelling community will have special permission to carry on fly tipping.

[gbh2] 24/3/2020 07:12

Redrow announce their dividend is cancelled, imo lloyds will go the same way
;(

[daddy warbucks] 24/3/2020 07:03

How will this affect banking shares?23 March 2020To support the fight against coronavirus Santander board to review 2020 dividend and cut senior management and board compensation.

[xxxxxy] 24/3/2020 06:53

 if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.

[buywell3] 24/3/2020 00:59

Covid-19 will IMO hit USA markets bigtime for the next few weeks as cases rise

World markets will follow their lead IMO

Financials to take much of the pain

Government help in the sector most likely the outcome again IMO

[pierre oreilly] 24/3/2020 00:24

1c, Even the basics boris is saying are disputable. The aim to not exceed the capacity of the nhs to treat patients for example. Well, that was exceeded a few years ago imv, basically it already can't cope with demand, so how can we today say we don't want to reach that stage when we have already exceeded it, covid or no covid.

You only have to look at the flow chart of where a hospital covid case actually goes. One route of the flow chart gets you in a normal ward, another into icu and yet another no treatment at all, i.e. simply left to die. That is here and now. I'm not saying that situation isn't sensible (in fact it is, simply the allocation of scarece resources), but implying the nhs is coping and doing the most draconian measures to keep it coping when it already obviously isn't is pretty insane.

I always find it incredible that many things in nature follow a gaussian distribution - you know, the graph they've put on the box a few times, aka 'normal distrution; or bell curve, and disease infection also follows that. So all infections will start, then follow an almost exponential rise, then flatten at the top, then an exponential decay then return to almost zero. The shape can be changed (as boris is trying), but it'll always follow that rise, levelling and decay, So there's absolutely no doubt at some stage this thing will start to fall and eventually become insignificant. Just depends on the various parameters driving it. Not sure most yet appreciate that boris is trying to extend the total time this virus is significant, but by flattening the curve, that is the result - a longer period of society and lifestyle destruction. With no measures taken, we'd likely be at the peak about now (with higher deaths than now) and probably in two weeks the virus would be insignificant, plus there'd be no consequential deaths to come, because we'd just have carried on as normal albeit with many on sick leave. Boris is extending the significance of the virus by 4/5/6 weeks, and causing many consequential deaths from the measures taken.

[maxk] 24/3/2020 00:17

Sunak under pressure to save Britain's 5m self-employed workers

Five million people who work for themselves are not covered by Friday's pledge to pay up to 80pc of wages to keep jobs alive

By
Tim Wallace
and
Russell Lynch,
ECONOMICS EDITOR
23 March 2020 • 7:51pm




Rishi Sunak is under mounting pressure to protect the livelihoods of the UK’s five million self-employed workers as many face disaster during the coronavirus lockdown.

The Chancellor has been criticised by campaigners for leaving the self-employed behind after he unveiled an unprecedented package of support for employees last week.

It is feared that without immediate action, huge numbers of tradesmen and other who work for themselves could face disaster within days.

The urgency was heightened on Monday when Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a lockdown that will officially prevent many self-employed people from earning income.

Andy Chamberlain, of the Association of Independent Professionals and the Self-Employed (Ipse), said: “Despite unprecedented measures to support employees, the government has still left the self-employed trailing far behind...

[pierre oreilly] 23/3/2020 23:37

False equivalent min. A very poor debating tactic, puerile in fact.

[pierre oreilly] 23/3/2020 23:34

818

Minny, you're currently in the lead in the 'make it up as you go along' game. See, you're not completely hopeless afterall, you're good at something! Well done!

[sentimentrules] 23/3/2020 23:32

‘He sacrificed himself’: tributes to first doctor to die from coronavirus in France..



All because pierre wanted a cadburys creme egg