Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[milliecusto] 14/3/2020 19:25

60 million have not been infected, so that is not a overall average, we haven't reached peak virus yet

[xxxxxy] 14/3/2020 19:24

You (that article) sound ridiculous. About 21 dead out of a population of 60million sounds very good odds for survival. Moving forward people will want to spend and enjoy and to live again. And they will certainly turn on the Doomsters. Shares cheap now. Buy at bargain for later. My view. Proportion and Perspective.

[pawsche] 14/3/2020 18:41

@Alangriffbang... Why should LLoyds not pay the declared dividend? Its profitability has nothing to do with the share price, especially in crazy circumstances like the present. Should it do so, IMHO it's share price will be murdered even further as the main reason for many holders is to get the dividend, and if one isn't paid there's little reason to hang onto the shares.

[minerve 2] 14/3/2020 18:10

I have no idea about dividend sustainability in any of these three but would expect it to be very slim.

Of course even if the company could afford to pay it a conservative group of directors might cancel it regardless and vice versa.

[alangriffbang] 14/3/2020 18:09

One company who has just suspended the dividend is Berkeley homes ,

[alangriffbang] 14/3/2020 18:06

Minerva ,there is no way Lloyd’s will pay this dividend it will need to hang on to every bit of cash , even big companies are stopping paying dividends ,

[montyhedge] 14/3/2020 17:56

Will they paid or will they suspend in these markets to preserve cash, especially airline stocks will surely.

[minerve 2] 14/3/2020 17:46

HSBC, Barclays and Lloyds all currently yielding c8.8%.

Bizarre.

[pierre oreilly] 14/3/2020 16:31

'But yours said much the same'

Ok, if it wasn't aimed at me then i apologise.

My post wasn't criticising the government anyhow, as you assert above. It was criticising those who, against current gov advice, are stopping football matches and other gatherings.

The advice may change any day now, at which point i would still like to say that imo, if i am allowed one, the gov are doing more harm than good. This agrees with some experts too, who think the gov acting solely on expert advice on how to limit the speed of the spread of the virus shouldn't be the sole consideration, and other aspects need taking into account. Such as the financial harm these restriction will bring to hundreds of millions of people and businesses. That causes stress which causes deaths. My view is the extra stress to hundreds of millions of people cause more deaths than it saves by trying to lower the speed of progression of the virus through society, which would only save a few deaths.

I think the reason they are doing something rather than the more beneficial (imo) nothing is because of very likely mass lawsuits if they did nothing.

(I'm not disagreeing with the expert advice they get from virologists, I'm just saying the implications of the actions are not being considered, e.g. the financial impact on everyone, the loss of jobs, the loss of income, the inability to feed their family etc etc). I've heard virology experts say the same as i am saying - that what's good for the virus isn't necessarily best for society.

[1 nhs] 14/3/2020 16:28

Here we go , ( as predicted )

By another

13
The end of airlines
Posted on March 14 2020

2020 is going to be the most extraordinary year which will live long in the memory of all those who survive it, which I hope to do.

Most of us will get coronavirus. Outside the UK many will survive. Here a smaller proportion will, entirely as a result of the decision of the government to encouraged the mass spread of the disease.

Simultaneously, we are already witnessing one of the biggest stock market crashes in history. The situation is volatile, but the only way is down for some time still to come in my opinion.

This crash is going to be followed by an economic crisis unless governments intervene on unprecedented scales (which they can) as record numbers of businesses in a wide range of sectors will fail, and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of jobs will be lost.

Worse, the risk that all the failings of financial capitalism, accumulated over 40 years, will become apparent simultaneously is very high: markets built on the flimsiest of foundations, such as the zero cost of capital that most banks have enjoyed for the last decade, will prove to be unsustainable and a domino effect will emerge.

At the same time enforced behavioural change will make it apparent to people that we really do have to change our lifestyles if we are, as a worldwide community, to also survive climate change and beat its consequences.

Combine all those factors and some quite extraordinary things are going to happen, including the complete elimination of some business sectors that have become so commonplace to many of us that their disappearance is very hard to imagine, and yet has to be contemplated, nonetheless.

I will offer an example. I suggest that the entire worldwide airline industry is probably going to cease to exist as we currently know it before the year is out.

British Airways has said that it is living through an unprecedented crisis. It has said that jobs will be lost, aircraft will be mothballed, routes will be closed, and that it has no idea what the impact of this will be. Lufthansa has already provided the answer to that last point: it has already applied to the German government for financial assistance to prevent it becoming insolvent. That is a pattern that I am quite sure every single airline will follow. I would suggest that there is, quite literally, none outside the state-owned sector that has anything like the financial resources to survive the crisis they now face.

Transatlantic flights are in lockdown.

Travel restrictions that will prevent mass tourism this summer are incredibly likely.

People are already exploring ways to work without having to travel.

And the idea that people will, whilst self-isolating, think about booking overseas holidays is fanciful, to say the least.

What is more, given that there was already a move against air travel because people are increasingly aware of its deeply destructive carbon footprint, once an unawareness that we can survive without getting airborne exists the demand for air travel, if and when it is recreated, is likely to be at a much lower level than in the past. A significant overall future reduction in demand is the almost inevitable consequence of the change that this sector will see this year.

In combination I suggest that this means that not a single commercial airline in the world can now be considered a going concern. And, given the likely duration of this crisis, I repeat that I expect every single one of them to fail. In the sector that is characterised by enormous investment in assets, the vast majority of which are paid for with long-term debt, which is unlikely to be waived as a consequence of the changes that are taking place at present, insolvency is the only, and inevitable outcome for every airline now in existence. I see no way around that.

Unless, of course, governments pretend, as they did in 2008, that 'there is no alternative' (the TINA scenario) to then save every airline. Except that the UK government response to Flybe suggests that this is unlikely. In that case a whole sector of commercial activity is, quite literally, going to come to an end.

I stress, I am not saying that we will never see a plane in flight again: that would be absurd. Very clearly that will happen. But whoever might be operating those planes in the future is very unlikely to be a company that is currently in existence.

What we will see is a reversion to the type of airline industry that existed when I was in my youth. Back then ( and it really was 'back then' in these terms) the vast majority of airlines were state-owned, and existed as what were known as 'national flag carriers'. National pride required that every country had such an operator, however much it cost to support it, and that cost was very often quite significant. This, I suspect, will be the new normal in this industry. But the result will be that states will make the decisions on air travel, and if they take climate change seriously this is going to mean that the era of massive air travel growth (which has been up about 50% since 2008) will be over.

This is going to be tough.

It will be tough on airlines.

And tough on their employees.

And the impact on the long haul destinations, in particular, and the other sectors that serve them, like cruising, will be harsh.

Surviving coronavirus is going to be tough. And when we get to the other side the world is going to look very different from what we have been used to. This time it really will be different

[poikka] 14/3/2020 15:43

Checking back, Pierre, I can only assume that it was my post this morning about the media criticising the government, after yours.

1. But yours said much the same.
2. Mine obviously was directed at the media and could in no way be seen to be a comment on what you posted.
3. In any case, I hadn't read your post.

Reckon you're confusing me with another poster.

[poikka] 14/3/2020 15:33

Hello Pierre, wtf are you talking about?

I haven't read your posts for weeks, and only noticed this one because I saw my name.

[redirect12] 14/3/2020 15:30

No bounce Monday features already down another 300points ftse and dow down 600

[minerve 2] 14/3/2020 15:00

The Zombie Salmond Tickle.

[wllmherk] 14/3/2020 14:58

Might bounce big on Monday UtyINV after the DOW rose 9% on Friday. Having said that we will probably rise Monday until US markets open, which has been the trend these last few weeks.

wllm

[gotnorolex] 14/3/2020 14:31

Tech think tank chief to step down after Trump death tweet
“Serious question: could there possibly [sic] any greater poetic justice in the universe than for Trump to die of the #CPACvirus?” Szóka tweeted late Monday.

[minerve 2] 14/3/2020 13:38

"Luckily, Britain could well use an upgrading of its infrastructure. Some of the roads would still be recognisable to a time-travelling ancient Roman" - FT

LOL!

[k38] 14/3/2020 13:30

Mass demonstration today in Paris from Yellow vests despite ban on gatherings.