Lightwaverf Share Discussion Threads

[greenrichard] 17/3/2016 12:49

loobrush - I'd have to disagree with you that results were as forecast.

From the Trading Update on 1st July:

The company continues to make significant progress with existing and new customer relationships and its sales proposition. Some of these have required modifications and developments to enhance product capability which in the short term is holding back revenue. As a result, with three months to go before year end the company now expects short term revenues to be constrained relative to current market expectations. Revenue and losses for the year to 30 September are now anticipated to be broadly similar to last year.

The actual results were NOT broadly similar.

Revenue for the year of GBP2.10 million (2014: GBP3.04 million) is almost 50% less
Post-tax losses at GBP0.23 million (2014: GBP0.14 million) is over 50% greater

[clocktower] 17/3/2016 12:20

hxxp://www.giftsfromthepirates.com/2016/03/the-only-real-security-that-man-can.html?spref=tw

[michaelmouse] 14/3/2016 17:48

sinkyj - A very courteous, intelligent and detailed reply. Thank you. Food for thought. I'll continue to watch from the sidelines.

[loobrush] 14/3/2016 17:40

It certainly has not been a good few days for Lightwave,results were as forecast so no new news there,however one wonders why they waited so long to bring them out.
They have great products but need to get their finger out and get the business buzzing as the opportunity is out there.
To my mind it seems that they need either some better directors or to sell out to somebody who can really make it succesfull and in in the UK first. There must be a number of people out there who can make it a success.
At the moment I am hanging in there trusting that one of the two will happen soon.

[sinkyj] 14/3/2016 17:37

Mm, very well reasoned argument. I think you a little harsh on the over 35's. Significant numbers of them own smartphones and most of us can use and even some dinosaurs can write Apps.

There already is business for the "right" product, pushed through the right channel, in the right market. I can name several businesses with billion dollar valuations (one you will know). Nest have probably by now nearly 2 million installations. In the UK, Hive(British Gas) that started as Alert me have around 300,000. Lightwaverf have about 20-25,000 of the "global connected" figure they claim. The difference :- the right product through the right channel (British Gas)

What may be more of a problem for Lightwaverf, is actually the under 35's appetite for DIY. At the moment this "convenience automation" is a "would like" rather than a "must have". Eventually it won't even be noticed as a technology and become a "can't live without". As a "would like" , there needs to be very little friction to the sale, Hive install (British Gas) , Cosy can, Nest can. Any doubts, will for most people result in a no sale.
.
The lightwaverf board strategy appears to be "chase the money", that will bring quick results but eventually like chasing the ball at football, superior strategy will win. They've got themselves in a low volume, low margin situation that produces figures like the last set..

For years lightwaverf have claimed to have commercial aspirations, including new house builds, however using the same Domestic quality product pushed out to the DIY market in Maplins etc. Right Market, wrong product, wrong channel.

Heating products, right market, right products (eventually), wrong channel. They need a utility or plumbing giant not a lighting company like Megamann.

Lighting products, right product, right channel, wrong market, no huge real desire for remote lighting lighting and needs a screwdriver and playing with the mains. Large friction to a sale

What's require are products that are needed, pushed by a channel partner that minimises the friction of the sales to the user. It's possible, there are lots of niches in the Global IOT market.

I believe, that somewhat like a slot machine all the wheels will fall in place, but like a gaming machine it's a gamble. I just wish there was a strategist familiar with world technology markets on the board of LightwaveRF it would take less spins.

[nar1] 14/3/2016 16:00

Thanks MM - lwrf are working within the commercial market - we are still waiting on results data from the Warwick University trial. Indeed the commercial market could prove very lucrative to the right company with the right products at the right time.

[clocktower] 14/3/2016 11:29

LOL - MM - They said there were issues with certain batches as I did - Now resolved, so expect to see sales growth and an increasing order book going forward.Sometime companies are ahead of the curve but the products are the best value on the market and the most versatile.

[michaelmouse] 14/3/2016 11:19

CT looked like he needed some company ;)

"The products are good mm" - Pity they can't seem to sell many then?

[clocktower] 14/3/2016 11:19

Nar1 - MM maybe short and it is always good to hear views that may differ regardless if invested or not. There is always a time to get in as there was when there were buyers in at 12p that may have made a decent profit.

[nar1] 14/3/2016 11:12

MM- you spend a considerable amount of time writing/ monitoring this stock especially for someone whose not even invested in it. Strange you must be very bored.

[clocktower] 14/3/2016 11:11

All noted mm and Good Luck.

The products are good mm - They had their faults and it has cost them dearly but these seem to be resolved, however they can turn the picture around should the current licencing deals prove to be very successful and hopefully they will soon sign new agreements or we may see a bid on the table.

I like you would not be surprised to see the share price fall a little further but I think there will be some support as there was previously. Positive news on Deals, New Products, HomeKit etc is what is needed and only then will it become clear where the share price is going imo.

[michaelmouse] 14/3/2016 10:40

clocktower - Given that you keep bleating on about how you sold your shareholding for a loss, you appear to be the most staunch defender of this company?

Have you spotted the elephant in the room with those results?

Despite the fact that the results were dire and clearly indicate a fledgling company that has lost it's way with decreasing revenues, decreasing margins, increasing losses and increasing competition, have you spotted the most worrying part?

Whilst they mention the order book is just under £1m which is not very impressive in itself. The elephant in the room is that revenues in the second half were less that £600,000 and despite the fact that they are already nearly six months into their current financial year, no mention has been made about current revenues.

Net tangible assets are just £31,600 and needless to say they don't pay dividends. I think my previous target of 10p was too generous. I fully expect the price to fall below this level.

[clocktower] 13/3/2016 14:09

Go for it ramas but DYOR first:

:-)

[ramas] 13/3/2016 12:04

Oh and the cost for a cosy is ..... Zero if you are prepared to pay a slightly higher tariff

[ramas] 13/3/2016 12:03

Here is the problem for LWRF in a word ..... Competition from the major players , for example hive and cosy. We can argue the pros and cons of functionality all day BUT think about it ... Do you really want to waste your life tinkering with the functions in your house after all life's too short. Great idea but times move fast , maybe too fast for LWRF. I could be wrong , am I brave enough to try and borrow some stock for a short .... Hmmm

[clocktower] 11/3/2016 18:11

Thanks for sharing your realistic perspective, I am seriously grateful but still cannot understand why you post your realistic views while holding such a large amount of stock, which if lumped with all the other "realistic" views posted here might help diminish the value of your substantial holdings that you intend holding onto until interims. I assume you like myself believe these threads have little real impact on the true value of any decent holding over a period of time, although they do seem to have short term effects that a number of traders/investors benefit from, as occurred when it hit it previous lows a few weeks ago.

Thinking about that I expect is the sort of reason that Barry Gamble purchased stock at 28p a few months ago, as in the course of time it is of no consequence if the result is positive, as he would be accused of buying low having held off in the knowledge of these poor results.

Many here might well see their paper losses become substantial paper profits come next years accounts if all goes well.

[dnadan] 11/3/2016 17:42

I am not talking the stock down - just being realistic. I have said I will wait until the interim results to see some glimmer of a recovery or on a load to recovery. But at some point you have to say enough is enough. I have held since JSJS days and think I have been quite patient - a personal choice I know.
By any account these are poor results and there is nothing said by the management that instills confidence to say things are going to change drastically. I am still a believer in the product but not the management - well not as much as I was a year or so ago.

[clocktower] 11/3/2016 17:17

buggy, Well put but with the negativity around and the fact that I took a small hit the last time I bought in at around 23p and sold on the bounce at around 17p, I am happy to wait until such time as sellers have driven it into the pits or I see better news being released from the company, this time. That said, I am of the view that some here are just trying to panic others into selling just at the point when the company have established a good foundation to build upon.They may have sold earlier and are looking to buy a holding at the expense of numerous very small holders that will sell as a stop loss, which is fair enough.

It was always know that the results would be poor from the day they issued a warning 1st July 2015 about the full year, and they have not performed as well as hoped for since, I grant you but it is clear there were issues that needed to be resolved, and sometimes these things take longer than expected to be fair.

If they had issued a very upbeat statement with such poor figures I am sure there would have been very serve criticism and rightly so. The way I see it they are being cautious so to be able to restore confidence going forward.

If you were a large holder would you be talking the stock down, as some have done today when there are positives in the RNS?

[buggy] 11/3/2016 16:54

CT,

if it is such a great RNS and there are plenty of good news coming through, why wait.. Buy in and make a killing with all the good news.

You sold out but you are telling everyone that there are plenty of good news in the RNS and yet at same breadth you are waiting for a slide to 10p??? Seems very inconsistent with what you are saying. It will only slide to 10p if this is bad news and things get worse. Aa you are expecting a flurry of positive RNS, you may just miss the boat once it moves to 30p.

While I have sympathy for a lot of holders who have been in since JSJS days .... the writing has been on the wall for quite a while so this is no surprise. Unfortunately most people will only see what they want to see.

Whoever they added to the board may yet turn this around ... but over 5 years of experience has shown that this management, as previously constituted, don't have the capability to do so. They are dreamers that dream of world domination but very short on delivery.
If they delivered 5% of what they promised within this time we would have been quids in.

I note the statement about problem with sales in H2.... they have to put that in because some observant person would have compared Full year's results to H1 results and come to the conclusion that the sales for H2 was only about £500K. This was the same time that some posters here wanted to believe that the products were flying off the shelves!! [ If you however looked at Amazon you will find that the number of retailers were decreasing and not increasing . retailers such as ebuyer etc also stopped stocking the product, more products at Maplin moved to online sales only .. so no longer stocked at individual shops etc.]

Regarding order book... over a year ago they reported an order book of near £3M. Now we have an order book of about £1M and that is progress?

I have been out for a while with substantial loss , so this is not a recommendation to BUY, SELL or otherwise. Each must decide what is best for them. If you believe in the product AND believe this management can successfully commercialise it then stick with it ... investment is always a personal decision based on what you are comfortable with.

[greenrichard] 11/3/2016 16:37

For people with a reasonable holding and a paper loss - it would be worth taking a day off and attending the AGM, where you can raise all these questions directly with the management. I'm guessing that it will be held in April.

[whoppy] 11/3/2016 16:26

I only hope Apple are still assisting LWRF in the development of the products and haven't pulled the plug. You would of thought management could of at least been bothered to update on what is probably their most important partnership. Now that they've gone from a release date of early 2016 to no release date, I'm of the opinion that they have squandered Apples interest. The absence of any mention of Apple is rather glaring.

[clocktower] 11/3/2016 16:00

whoppy, This is one of the points I was trying to make earlier - they maybe saving up other better news after this has been swallowed, hopefully it will be for all holders and those like myself that are looking to buy into the future that this offers.

GR - If I am a stakeholder by then and it is convenient, I may attend.