LGO Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nexus7] 09/6/2017 19:12

From wanderlust51 Today 17:31
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SW going to get busy

Published:
Thursday, May 25, 2017

State-owned Petrotrin is expected to increase its crude production by a further 21,000 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) over the next three years at an estimated cost of $5 billion, according to Energy Minister Franklyn Khan.

Speaking on Monday at the sixth conference of the Geological Society of T&T, Khan said that Petrotrin offers the best hope to increase crude production in the short term.

With this in mind, he announced a planned jump in the company’s production by 21,000 bo/d or a 30 per cent increase from its current production.

In an interview with the Business Guardian at the same conference, Petrotrin’s president Fitzroy Harewood said the company has been gradually increasing production to the point where it is up to 46,000 bo/d from 41,000 bo/d in December, a jump of 12 per cent.

Asked where the 21,000 bo/d output increase was going to come from, Harewood said, “So the combination of drilling on land, which we want to push up to two rigs if we can next year, and then the resumption of drilling in Trinmar next year as well as the EOR (enhanced oil recovery) activities will give us some fillip.”

Harewood said the company would also be returning to exploration drilling, or searching for new crude. He pointed out that under a production sharing contract with the government, the company is expected to drill three wells in the North Marine Block in 2017, but while it will start two of the three in 2017, all will be completed in 2018.

“We are working towards starting that work in the fourth quarter this year and the next well in 2018. The licences acreage is North Marine and we have an obligation to do exploratory wells. Actually it was suppose to be the end of 2017 but when we took some time to review our prospect generation and do some more work on the data set, the ministry allowed us to go to 2018,” Harewood told the Business Guardian.

Mobile production facility to be commissioned

Harewood said the wells in North Marine are being drilled based on the recently acquired 3D seismic which gave Petrotrin improved sub-surface vision and he was quietly confident that it will generate good prospects.

“They are exploration wells based on the 3d seismic data we have done, and we have looked at the prospects and leads and the expectation is that we should have some good prospects. We are doing some de-risking of the prospects right now and doing peer reviews and it should give us some good co-ordinates to go after and it will see what it brings us,” he said.

Khan revealed that the state-owned company will spend over $5 billion in the next three years on exploration and production as it tries to get additional equity crude for the refinery.

One such project is the South West (SW) Soldado project in which crude has stayed in the ground for years because of a lack of infrastructure to produce it.

Harewood said Petrotrin was m

[12bn] 09/6/2017 16:10

Brasso3,you think £15m is tiny compared to a years time? Just how is Koot supposed to work this magic? He doesn't want to drill new wells as that has been tried and failed and waterflood is unlikely to work as the oil appears to be in pockets. Maybe the company name change will increase production or using an electric pump or two will transform LGO,lol. So far picking a number out of the air and getting TW to ramp it seems to be the preferred method to get the share price up,sod increasing oil production! Ramps and spin won't do though, as losses of £4m a year will need covering,probably via discounted placings.

[nexus7] 09/6/2017 14:56

As Oil Plumbs New Depths, Someone Sees $80 a Barrel by December

→ Investor takes options for 10 million barrels of Brent crude
→ Transactions coincide with Brent hitting lowest since November

As Brent crude oil closed on Wednesday at its lowest level since before OPEC and other nations agreed to cut output, someone bet half a million dollars on prices surging to $80 by year-end.

Options to buy 10 million barrels of Brent crude for $80 a barrel in December traded Wednesday, far exceeding the next-largest contracts, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Placed in two trades, the transactions were especially large given they were to purchase crude at 66 percent above the day’s closing price...

[thenorth] 09/6/2017 13:07

So the cleaver are buying today... before the heard arrives next week IMO..... some nice chunky buys and it appears those sizeable sells have dried up a bit... for now...

[carpadium] 09/6/2017 12:22

Year 1. starts as Columbus formally trades.

[sean spicer] 09/6/2017 12:17

He better get a move on, we are already half way through Year 1.

[carpadium] 09/6/2017 12:14

LK made it pretty plain Year 1. extra production from existing wells and into Year 2. alongside exploration into SW, then Year 3. SA.

[holly day] 09/6/2017 10:59

IMO, the mention of S. America suggests Leo is looking to fry a bigger fish whilst using Trinidad as an existing revenue source... just like under Ritson, Spain was the steady revenue stream whilst the 'bigger play' was intended to be Trinidad. I expect he'd accelerate the flow rates (also accelerating well depletion) whilst his personal efforts will be expended sourcing licenses in S. America. Historically (under Ritson any way) all Goudron has done is pay his and suppliers + operators' costs and bled the shareholders dry. Cedros and other licenses are yet to be developed and may remain on a slow burner. I personally can't see much of new money being thrown at workovers. IMO, within 12 months, we'd have washed our hand off of everything LGO (including Ritson) and Columbus will be a completely new company aiming much higher. Leo does not appear to be the type of person that wants to be fiddling around with 1000 or 2 barrels/day type of organisation.

A question for the folks with more knowledge...what's the largest producing company (and bpd) in on-shore Trinidad? Of our size, I note Range and Touchstone producing circa 1000 p/d and losing money....

[datait] 09/6/2017 10:26

watch and weep 12bn lol

[edgein] 09/6/2017 08:35

TheNorth,

That's the hard bit though, who knows, it'll largely depend on how much he can get out of Goudron with water flood or whatever way he decides to proceed. However given his large oil and gas investment fund he could always add production here via acquisition at any point, then we'd have to add that in too. Given the oil price at the moment he's likely got a long list of bargains on his desk. I guess we'll have a better idea next week with the presentation and relaunch event.

Regards,
Ed.

[thenorth] 09/6/2017 08:26

I'd agree with that ed but of course not wanting to count the numbers around the clock and just wanting to know the time just what is the potential Mkt cp and subsequent share price going to look like in 24months time???

[thenorth] 09/6/2017 08:24

Ten times that I recon

[edgein] 09/6/2017 08:16

The North,

True, the 800lb Gorilla is likely to be drilled under LK's leadership for sure as well as development of the other Cedros assets (Bonasse etc). We'll likely have a few more 800lb Gorillas emerge from SA too, which country will be the interesting bit. I'm hoping its Colombia given its large HC prospectivity and stable O&G sector, but he'll have a list of others with large HC prospectivity. I'm hoping he stays clear of Venezuela and Bolivia. Looking forward to the presentation next week and I hope those able to attend will post their views. Also hopefully LK will put the presentation on the website, both the PDF and the talk/video itself.

Regards,
Ed.

[brasso3] 08/6/2017 19:55

market cap is £15m! Tiny compared to what it will be a years time.

[simon1955] 08/6/2017 19:43

Took 35% sold at 3.28 on Tuesday, mcap is scary, gla

[carpadium] 08/6/2017 17:41

Cheers Ed, lots of food for thought. Like to think we've now a foot on the climbing frame as opposed to years of playing on the see-saw and slides.

[thenorth] 08/6/2017 17:38

That's not including that 800lbs gorilla and what it might yield....Ed exciting times once more... would be great to see in 3 to 5 years an share price of 50p plus....

[edgein] 08/6/2017 17:29

Carpadium,

It was basically based on the contingent being rebooked as 2P. That happens when reserves become pending development or developed. So therefore water flood will need to be funded and or in place. Probably trial water flood on all or part of both the shallow and deeper reservoirs and results showing its impact. I'm hoping the C-sands wells rise to a stable 300bopd, or 500bopd if it works really well and there's a good sweep of the reservoir. That's still well below the 2000bopd ip rate of their best well, but don't think that will be possible from pressure support. We may get stable 60-80bopd from the shallow wells with normal decline if it works well in the shallow reservoirs, perhaps more. It should keep the decline rates at about 20-25% per year. A field of 60mmbbls could be capable of more than 6000bopd, but again that will depend on response to water flood. The reservoir quality is very high for both shallow and deep reservoirs from the RNS releases, the oil is intermediate therefore doesn't need anything to help it flow (surfactant, chemical treatment, microbial or heat etc). Just over £3+/bbl is still modest for T&T 2P given the $20-30/bbl margin. 60mmbbls is certainly big enough for mid cap, we just need the water flood trials to go smoothly. Even a few thousand bbls could see significant expansion into South America.

Good to see a new presentation coming with the re-launch, that'll be interesting.

Regards,
Ed.

[carpadium] 08/6/2017 17:16

Ed ...on the basis of your post 8122 you see the mkt cap, potentially based on Goudron's potential alone, as £200m+

This would imply a share price on current issue, around 35p. Would it therefore, in turn,imply a production of around 6000bopd ...or is that a too simplistic conclusion.

Appreciate your time and thoughts.

[thenorth] 08/6/2017 17:15

I saw that about South America in the RNS... I guess you could say LK has put one of his stages in an RNS for us... shows vision and desire...

[holly day] 08/6/2017 16:48

Interesting wording...."to grow in South America". I think they are effectively buying a ready made company, already listed as the vehicle either as a reverse takeover or Columbus to develop as an independent. Is it ECHO that is the cash shell they looking to use for financing?

[12bn] 08/6/2017 16:37

It closed level,2.95p bid but I am expecting it to fall again tomorrow,it is a long haul back to 2p but I have faith lgo will get there soon enough. :)

[thenorth] 08/6/2017 16:28

I'm a shagger for more of these just now with a naughty top up...

[the guardian] 08/6/2017 15:31

That's a pretty novel idea. Presumably the presentation will be available on the website. If anyone goes, can they pick up a bottle of wine for me please!

For the first time in years, I really feel that this company is going somewhere. What a difference a new CEO makes.

[sean spicer] 08/6/2017 15:29

Good to see Leo signalling his intent to get next weeks relaunch off to a flying start.

Next week will be very positive.