Leaf Clean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jhan66] 07/9/2018 07:31

From Crystal Amber

Leaf’s market capitalisation is approximately £10 million, reflecting the value of the US$15.3 million (equivalent to 22p a share) held in escrow. Leaf continues to hold that it is entitled to damages from Invenergy’s proven contractual breaches. Damages and interest would represent an additional payment of US$85.8 million (equivalent to 123p a share

Court appeal by March 2019.

[pvb] 05/7/2018 15:57

OK. 55.51% * 29.72p = 16.5p

Seems a strange mistake for professionals to make though...

Mind you, I remember when many (most?) 'professionals' seemed unable to correctly understand the Dividend Tax Credit!

[papy02] 05/7/2018 15:50

Pvb, a previous RNS said the redemption was equivalent to (iirc) 16.5p per pre-redemption-share, so I suspect Tiltonboy is right, the MM’s misread that as 16.5p back on all shares.

Today’s RNS is fair enough if they drafted it at shortly after 8am, but by the time it was issued it was no longer justified.

[pvb] 05/7/2018 15:29

Market thought it was a 17p redemption, and marked them down accordingly.

Uh. How come? Even my non-communicative broker gets the figures correct at a rounded 55.51% of existing shares at 29.72p per share.

[tiltonboy] 05/7/2018 15:20

Market thought it was a 17p redemption, and marked them down accordingly. In fact, the share price should have been marked down marginally instead. I managed to pick up a few at 9p....but not enough. Not very often the MM's get it wrong!

[hpcg] 05/7/2018 15:09

The company is saying that.

[pvb] 05/7/2018 15:06

Not sure what planet they are on with the “we know no reason for price drop” RNS.

Who is saying that? Mind you, I've had absolutely no company notification from my ISA broker, even online. Though the online numbers currently agree with my calculations - now split into two LEAF shares, payment due on 10 July according to company information.

[hpcg] 05/7/2018 15:04

I haven't been able to trade, none of the providers I use has been able to get a price.

[papy02] 05/7/2018 15:02

Not sure what planet they are on with the “we know no reason for price drop” RNS.

After the Redemption (Record date yesterday) the remaining shares are a punt on the outcome of the 2 legal claims against Invenergy (with outcomes of 20.5 or 122.7p per post-redemption-share, or something close to zero if both claims fail).

At yesterday’s Offer Price of 26p, the implied Offer price post redemption (*) was 21.45p. It is currently 19p. Is that difference enough for a “know no reason” RNS?

(*) Assuming you valued the 55.51% to-be-redeemed shares at the redemption price of 29.72p, ie no discount for “credit risk”.

Have I got that wrong?

(Very irritated that I did those calculations yesterday then forgot to place a limit order for the morning - I would have been a happy buyer on that initial short-lived spike down)

Edit: just upped the above Claim values per post-redemption-share, I just realised I’d underestimated in my calculation yesterday

[jhan66] 05/7/2018 08:23

I contemplated getting some leaf. 29p NAv would cover a lot of management failure.
Online broker says can’t trade because no kid/kiid available

[hpcg] 26/6/2018 08:28

checkers2 - yes it is effectively like a buy back but with different mechanics. It is a partial redemption so no you don't get 29.7p for all your shares you get that for some of your shares. In that sense it is more like a dividend, although to be in no doubt it is a capital return; dividing up the cash and giving a lump to shareholders does not change the NAV.
Buying at this level is a punt on the court deciding that the arbitrated mid-value is what will ultimately be paid for Invergy. I can't weight the risk reward for you, though with markets a bit squiffy I think there is some merit at the right price.

[checkers2] 26/6/2018 08:11

Hi PVB, Escuse my ignorance here, this is the first time I have come across a compulsory redemption, I assume it is like a buy back, but involuntary?

If it is at 29,72p value, does that make the share good value at these prices? I can buy at say 26 now, and get the 29,72 back + keep holdin shares?

[pvb] 25/6/2018 08:51

For now, 29.72p per share compulsory redemption:

[hpcg] 15/6/2018 10:59

Did Berstein just walk through a low door or something? I did buy some more today, but only because it largely comes back relatively quickly. There is decent option value on the additional up to 50m, and the ethanol comes for free. Worst case was another appeal and another delay for any return. Just a minor top up, with the vast majority picked up much lower.

[flyfisher] 15/6/2018 10:50

Redemptions are normally at nav, current nav is around 29.5p at current exchange rate, they will need to hold some cash in reserve to cover the legal fees for the appeal.

[cockerhoop] 15/6/2018 10:20

Richard Berstein from Crystal Amber take:

Great news today from Leaf Clean Energy (LEAF)- receiving in 23p a share. Proceeds being returned to shareholders. As well as a further 9p being paid into escrow, Leaf is seeking an additional 58p from Invenergy. So 90p gross is the target. Current share price 23.5p.

[glawsiain] 15/6/2018 09:04

Thanks Flyfisher. But how do you come to those figures? The rns says details are to follow.

[flyfisher] 15/6/2018 08:06

Todays rns should lead to a redemption of around 55% of issued shares at about 29.5p.

[pvb] 20/4/2018 11:24

Surprise! :-(

[manfrommoyse] 20/4/2018 08:56

There are remaining issues
Will LEAF consider an appeal? Unlikely as I think they would need further loan to underwrite such action e.g. from Crystal Amber who are likely to cut lossess.
Will Invenergy pay if LEAF accept? They may just sit on the judgement to make life difficult.
No info in today's RNS from LEAF. And, nothing on the Invenergy site (some completely unrelated news item was posted yesterday, so they update their site).

To state the bleeding obvious, not good.