Latin Res Share Discussion Threads

[mr midas2] 13/4/2005 17:48

on completion of the deal,lodore are forecasting,Earnings Before Interest Tax Depreciation,and Amortisation.....of $50m.....i think 20p is a given....others think a lot more....you work out what you think it's worth.

[fitehills] 13/4/2005 17:31

Ok Midas2 you got me.,Maybe I should not have had that last drink in the pub,what does that mean!!

[mr midas2] 13/4/2005 16:42

E.B.I.T.D.A......US $50million.on acquisition.20p,a given.

[sealed] 13/4/2005 05:54

Lodore Resources ticked 0.75p higher to 16.5p on talk the oil explorer is close to securing a fresh acquisition. Crosby Capital, the recently formed merchant bank from which Lodore was spun out last year, jumped 7p to 47.5p as investors noted that the group continues to hold a substantial stake in the resources group. There was also talk that a bullish broker note on Crosby will soon be published showing that the stock trades at just four times forecast earnings for the current year.

[tiger602001] 12/4/2005 13:38

I have re-read the publicly available docs, and as you say, its all there, in the public domain, waiting to be read and analysed. Your comments are really spot on, and I want to thank you for helping make these message boards so useful for the small investor.

I am a long time backer of this stock, and am convinced that Dr Bob will not only do a great deal with the old assets, but pick up new leases as well. Just a matter of time

[ian.g] 12/4/2005 11:30

mr m

Glad to have you on board - the more information flow we get here the better.
If you go back through the thread you'll find that there's already a fair amount of information here wrt the three remaining fields (East Cameron, Sorrento Dome and Coastal Bend /Padre Island). The last announcement from Lodore indicated their modified strategy, to buy those assets outright leveraging their interest to get them at a discounted price.

If they've now reached the final stages of that negotiation that's excellent news, though until we get an announcement from Medco or Lodore and find out the full terms of the deal (i.e. the details of funding and whether there are any other conditions) the target price remains speculation.

For a rough outline of price/value calculations at the time of the Sunov deal, see my post 178. The 2004 valuation of the Medco assets was $155-200m. Medco sold the Stratton field to Apache for $45m, a relatively low price, under their preferential buyback arrangement, leaving the other three fields worth (say)$150m at 2004 prices.

That has almost certainly increased since early 2004 (given increased oil and gas prices), imo a $200-250m estimated value would be quite probable... We don't know how much of the benchmark $120m valuation of the Novus/Medco assets is taken out by the Stratton field, but for the sake of argument let's say approx $40m. That would leave Lodore's interest in the remaining assets as 35% of any value materialised over $80m. So potentially Lodore's interest is 35% of $120-170m, or around $42-60m. That would leave them needing funding of around $150-200m to buy the assets. So I guess the key question now is how they'll get that funding, and what premium over the value of the assets will the market give to the shares.

Assuming that the deal happens in the next month or so, one of the major bonus points will be the evidence that Dr Williams is still a highly capable deal-maker, and that he knows this market as well as or better than anyone else operating in it...

regards,
ian

[mr midas2] 12/4/2005 06:45

i know a couple of people involved in this.they think fair value on completion of acquisition,to be 26-32p.of course that doesn't mean it will get that high,nor that it won't go higher.only the market will decide that.
looks a strong buy upto 20p though.

[fitehills] 11/4/2005 19:52

Look at the chart and see previous comments this is going to soar..Don't know exactly what is about to happen but all the pointers are good and glad that am in.Midas2,you and I are in agreement that there is something brewing.If you are right then your other thread is on target.The managment is excellent and I follow Regan and have not been disappointed nor will we all be.All IMHO, bet am right!!

[mr midas2] 11/4/2005 16:08

see the thread i started.lots to go for.

[ian.g] 11/4/2005 16:06

mr m
source? have I missed something or do you just 'know'?

[mr midas2] 11/4/2005 14:04

end of april

[ian.g] 11/4/2005 11:30

fitehills, jethr0
you may be right - there's certainly a sudden burst of activity in the SP, though I can't find any actual news out on the web. Either there are rumours around or the market makers are having fun. With the new tax year ISA money in play it's hard to tell...
The next news I'd be expecting would be that Dr Williams has come to an agreement to buy the rest of the Medco North American interests, though there's been no timescale on that negotiation as yet.
regards,
ian

[jethr0] 11/4/2005 08:37

2 buys and 1 sell and 0.5p rise WHY? who knows something?

[fitehills] 10/4/2005 19:34

Hi Midas2

Love your heading and hope like hell your right.There was certainly a lot of activity on Friday and as I said on the other thread weeks of no action then bang, I think somebody knows something,seen it happen so often in other shares.I certainly agree your view on their ability to raise the cash and look forward to some excitment in the weeks ahead.

[mr midas2] 10/4/2005 17:46

uk/european banks have shown strong interest in lending the money for acquisition.
lodore can do this by locking in current forward gas prices,so they could highly leverage the deal,maybe upto 100% of the purchase price.
lodores economic interest in novus,would act as a discount to the bid price.

[opthalmist] 10/4/2005 17:11

how is lodore paying for these assets?

[maestro.] 10/4/2005 15:56

better off putting ya money in Bookham imho

[fitehills] 08/4/2005 13:39

Dont agree Ian I reckon that only the first 2 trades were sells the rest are buys,.I can vouch for one of them at 14, and we are up.75.More activity than we have seen for a while.,So is something afoot or am I being too optimistic.

[ian.g] 08/4/2005 11:53

Not much going on at present - notice that Dr Williams has further incentivised himself to get the share price up, with 27m share options exercisable in 2008 at 14p... so every 3.5p rise from here is potentially worth £1m to him in 3 years time.
Back into snooze mode...

[ian.g] 18/3/2005 13:21

4Johnb -
are you confusing me and fusey? You sound like a holder, whereas he's a serial deramper who never does any real research, just picks over (and twists) recent announcements in support of his shorts.

fantastic - someone just bought 150k - well done, whoever you are; you moved the share price all on your own!

[4johnb] 24/2/2005 14:34

Fusebox, I like your logic and agree with your approach. For anyone who has the patience to do some basic research there is plenty of reason to be reasonably comfortable with the deal at this stage, and with Dr Bob Williams. He has a track record that in this day and age is easy to find out. I do hope that someone from the company is looking at these boards though - we could do with some more information or update on the negotiations. I really don't think that barkley wyatt or any other person trading the stock has got anything to do with the current share price, its simply a lack of clear vision on whether lrs will end up with cash or the Novus US assets themselves

[beg bitch beg] 22/2/2005 12:17

This company has a market cap a little bit too large for you to be so worried about a bucket shop.Over the years bucket shops have had lines in all sorts of shares.As seen on screen (done rather well)to name but one; as well as a lots of other unsucessful ones. Are you also aware of dr bobs background?This company currently is a structured deal which is dependant on a breakup which will then provde company with working cap subject to certain sales target being met and is therefore high risk.
The only thing being pumped is your Berkley Wyatt story from before christmas on here.We heard you the first time get on with your life.Your obviously a highly succesful investor so why you keep going on and on is quite sad.